Transcript Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

Federal R&D: Overview,
Update and Outlook
Matt Hourihan
October 9, 2013
for the Science Diplomats Club
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018
30%
25%
Defense
Discretionary
20%
Nondefense
Discretionary
15%
Mandatory
10%
Net Interest
5%
0%
Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.
© 2013 AAAS
Composition of the FY 1980 Budget
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$53
Defense
Discretionary
$120
Other Mandatory
$100
[Defense R&D]
$15
Medicaid
$14
Medicare
$31
Nondefense
Discretionary
$126
Social Security
$117
[Nondefense R&D]
$16
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.
© 2012 AAAS
Composition of the FY 2017 Budget?
outlays in billions of dollars
Net Interest
$566
Defense
Discretionary
$515
[Defense R&D]
$66
Nondefense
Discretionary
$517
Other Mandatory
$714
[Nondefense R&D]
$63
Medicaid
$423
Social Security
$1,026
Medicare
$633
Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.
© 2012 AAAS
Emergent Budget Tendencies
 Discretionary spending tends to be constrained…
 Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan
 Late 1980s/early 1990s: spending caps
 2011 Budget Control Act caps
 While mandatory spending tends to grow
 Health care costs
 Expanding beneficiaries, aging population
 Medicare Part D, Affordable Care Act…
 …versus failed efforts at control/constraint/reform
 And, of course, anti-tax politics
Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy
Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014
14.0%
2.5%
12.0%
2.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
1.5%
1.0%
4.0%
0.5%
2.0%
0.0%
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not
reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.
© 2013 AAAS
0.0%
R&D as a Share
of the Federal
Budget (Left
Scale)
R&D as a Share
of GDP (Right
Scale)
*Keep in mind…
 Department of Defense technology development activities
have declined a little more than everything else
Enter FY 2014: Admin R&D Priorities
 Clear shift from D to R
 And from Defense to Nondefense
 Science + Innovation
 COMPETES Agencies
 Advanced Manufacturing
 Translational Medicine
 Clean Energy + Environment
 Defense technology cuts
 STEM education
R&D Changes by Function Since 2004
percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars
Applied Energy Programs
88.4%
Commerce (NIST)
66.5%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
20.2%
Environment Agencies
-7.3%
Health (NIH)
-7.8%
Agriculture
-8.2%
Defense Activities
-40%
-14.8%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications
and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General
Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.
© 2013 AAAS
60%
80%
100%
 The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to presequester levels
 Every agency would receive major increases above FY13
Approps: What Have We Learned?
 Everybody still mostly likes science and
innovation funding…
 Though to varying degrees
 But again, fiscal politics trumps all
Current Politics: The “Pong” Model?
Raise
revenues!
The science and
innovation budget
Cut
nondefense
spending!
Obviously, a very facile
oversimplification…!
Some concluding thoughts…
 If increasing aggregate R&D is the goal…
 Should the sci & innovation community take broader fiscal view?
 Science as % of discretionary? Discretionary as % of total?
 Social spending is popular. Responsible taxation is unpopular
 How to grapple with tradeoffs
 If we’re to ask more of the taxpayer:
 Should science programs more directly tie to public outcomes?
 Temporal problem: allocative spending and tax policy is about
past & present, science and innovation spending is about future
 The alternative: Glide along happy with what we’ve got?
Notes about shutdown…
 Intramural vs. extramural vs. contractors
 i.e. ARS/NIH vs. universities vs. JPL
 Impacts: radio telescopes; Antarctic station; meetings and
symposia
 Clock is ticking for some big-ticket items
 A transient event, one hopes
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
www.aaas.org/spp/rd/