Transcript Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

The Federal R&D
Budget: Overview and
Outlook
Matt Hourihan
February 5, 2014
for the Society of Research Administrators
International
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018
30%
25%
Defense
Discretionary
20%
Nondefense
Discretionary
15%
Mandatory
10%
Net Interest
5%
0%
Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.
© 2013 AAAS
Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy
Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014
14.0%
2.5%
12.0%
2.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
1.5%
1.0%
4.0%
0.5%
2.0%
0.0%
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not
reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.
© 2013 AAAS
0.0%
R&D as a Share
of the Federal
Budget (Left
Scale)
R&D as a Share
of GDP (Right
Scale)
*Keep in mind…
 Department of Defense development activities have declined
more than everything else
R&D Change by Budget Function, 2004-2013
Percent change from FY 2004 in constant dollars, post-sequestration
Applied Energy Programs
18.3%
Commerce (NIST)
18.9%
Environment Agencies
-20.9%
Agriculture
-20.3%
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Space*
Health (NIH)
Defense Activities
-30%
8.5%
-14.8%
-13.4%
-16.0%
-10%
10%
* To avoid comparability challenges, "Space" refers to total NASA budget authority rather than R&D
spending. It does not include Aeronautics, which is in the "Transportation" function, not shown.
Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications and other
budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior
years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.
© 2013 AAAS
30%
Recent R&D Budget History
 R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12
 August 2011: Budget Control Act

AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5 years
 January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act
 FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more
 Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two
different spending baselines
 December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester
rollback for FY14
Department of Defense
 DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T
programs
 Basic research at all-time high
 Nanotechnology, materials science
 DARPA: small from FY12
 Medical research BIG increase
NIH
 Continuing stagnation
 Most institutes about halfway
between sequester and FY12
 Largest increases: National
Institute on Aging, NCATS
 Translational medicine,
Alzheimer’s research, BRAIN
Initiative, National Children’s
Study
 Success rates down to 16.8
percent in FY13
Department of Energy
 Generally good news
 Science: much closer to Senate
mark
 Advanced Computing and Fusion
(especially domestic research)
 Energy Frontier Research Centers
at $100 million
 Clean energy programs (EERE,
ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine
 NNSA R&D also picked up
significant funding
 DOE R&D at all-time high
NASA
 Positive outcomes for Science,
Exploration
 Planetary Science avoids deeper
cuts; Europa Mission?
 Largest increase for Webb
Telescope
 Skepticism toward asteroid mission
 Clear commitment to nextgeneration flights systems, also
commercial spaceflight
 Aeronautics, Space Tech flat
National Science Foundation
 Lower number than other agencies,
about even with FY12
 Appropriator support for ocean
research, cybersecurity, advanced
manufacturing R&D, neuroscience
 Social Sciences research restrictions
lifted
 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to
commence construction
 Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act
doubling target
USDA
 Another good outcome
 Intramural R&D: Request matched
 Minus poultry research center
 Extramural R&D: closer to Dems
than GOP
 Big boost for AFRI
 Forest Service dodges cuts
 Farm Bill establishes ag research
foundation
Other notes
 Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short
 DHS got (mostly) what it wanted
 NIST not looking bad
 Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded
TOTAL
GDP
Looking ahead…
 President’s budget to be released March 4, for now
 Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and
computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed
 Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been
agreed
 And will increase hardly at all
 25% of sequester reductions rolled back
 Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged
 Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels
Current Politics: The “Pong” Model?
Raise
revenues!
The science and
innovation budget
Cut
spending!
Obviously, a very facile
oversimplification…!
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
www.aaas.org/spp/rd/