Transcript Slide 1

International
Labour
Office
Building a Social Protection Floor
with the Global Jobs Pact
- The Background Report
2nd African Decent Work Symposium
Yaoundé, Cameroon,
6–8 October 2010
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Structure of the presentation
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One:
Two:
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Three:
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Four:
Five:
Six:
Seven:
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International
Labour
Office
The Policy context
The economic and social
context
Diagnostics: The state of social
protection in Africa
The emerging policy paradigm
Affordability and feasibility
Impact and evidence
Implementation strategies and what
can the ILO do?
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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One: The Policy context – a reminder
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We know from more than one century of history of the modern welfare
state that social transfers and services are powerful policy instruments to
combat poverty, insecurity and inequality and ...achieve the MDGs
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Social services and transfers are an economic necessity to unblock
the full economic potential of a country, only people that are healthy,
well educated and well nourished can be productive
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There is now widespread acceptance that social protection/security
serve as social and economic stabilisers in times of crisis
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Countries with existing systems are in a better position to cope with
the social and economic fall-out than those who have to introduce
new ad-hoc measures
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And yet, still 75-80% percent of the global population do not enjoy a set of
social guarantees that allows them to deal with life’s risks…
…There is a need for a social protection floor below which nobody
should fall …
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The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Labour
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One: The Policy context – a reminder
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The Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union in
September 2004 in Ouagadougou adopting the Ouagadougou Declaration and Plan of
Action
The Livingstone and Yaoundé conferences (March and September 2006) that
recommended the general introduction of a basic package of social security benefits.
The 11th ILO African Regional Meeting, held in Addis Ababa in April 2007, which
invited all African countries to adopt coherent national social security strategies.
The First Session of the African Union Conference of Ministers in Charge of
Social Development (Windhoek, Namibia, 27-31 October 2008), adopted the Social
Policy Framework for Africa that recommended the implementation of a minimum
package of social security benefits.
The High Level Committee on Programmes of the UN Chief Executives Board in
2009 adopted the Social Protection Floor….
The International Labour Conference in June 2009 that endorsed the social
protection floor approach in the Global Jobs Pact,
The Tripartite Meeting of Experts on Strategies for the Extension of Social
Security Coverage, Geneva September 2009, recommending the two-dimensional
strategy to extend social security.
The First African Decent Work Symposium in December 2009 in Ouagadougou,
highlighted that building a social protection floor for all is under way in several African
countries, and recently
The Millennium Summit 2010 endorsing the SP floor…
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Labour
Office
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Two: The economic and social context…
International
Labour
Office
Poverty and GNI per capita, Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA)
(latest available year)
GNI per capita (US$)
% of population below international poverty line of US$1.25 per day, 1992-2007
7 000
100
90
6 000
80
60
4 000
50
3 000
40
Percentage
70
30
2 000
20
1 000
10
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
Bostwana
South Africa
Namibia
Swaziland
Lesotho
Zambia
Kenya
United Rep. of
Tanzania
Uganda
Rwanda
Madagascar
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
Malawi
0
Ethiopia
0
Burundi
Total in US$
5 000
5
Two: The economic and social context…
Life expectancy at birth and infant mortality, by region, 2006
International
Labour
Office
Mortality rate (per 1 000 births) / life expectancy (years)
200
180
Under five mortality rate (per 1,000 births)
160
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)
Life expectancy at birth (years)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Eastern and
Southern Africa
Western and
Central Africa
South Asia
Middle East and
North Africa
East Asia and
Pacific
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Source: UNICEF 2008 - Social protection in Eastern and Southern Africa: A framework and strategy for UNICEF
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Two: The economic and social context…
International
Labour
Office
100
Total
80
Men
Women
60
40
20
Ukraine
[2002]
South Africa
[2004]
Chile* [2003]
Brazil* [2002]
Costa Rica
[2003]
Bolivia*
[2002]
Thailand
[2002]
Zambia [2005]
India*
[2004/2005]
Tanzania
[2006]
0
Benin [2002]
Share in total employment | including agriculture
Employment in the informal economy as a percentage of total employment
(including agriculture), various years
* Urban areas only
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Percentage of life births attended by skilled health personnel
0
Hig h est w ealth q u in tile
L o w est w ealth q u in tile
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
G abon |2000
C ongo |2005
N am ibia |2007
Benin |2006
Sw aziland |2007
M alaw i |2004
Zim babw e |2006
R w anda |2008
Tanzania, U nited R ep. of |2005
Burkina Faso |2003
M ali |2006
Lesotho |2004
Togo |2006
M adagascar |2004
C ôte d'Ivoire |2006
C am eroon |2004
U ganda |2006
Sierra Leone |2008
G am bia |2006
Zam bia |2007
C entral African R ep. |2006
Liberia |2007
M ozam bique |2003
Burundi |2005
G hana |2008
M auritania |2007
Senegal |2005
G uinea-Bissau |2006
Kenya |2003
G uinea |2005
N igeria |2008
Eritrea |2002
N iger |2006
C had |2004
Ethiopia |2005
Births attended by skilled health personnel, various years between 2000 and 2008
(percentages, by wealth quintile)
90
80
30
70
25
60
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
10
5
0
Source: WHO Global Health Observatory, in WHO, 2009.
100
Ratio highest-lowest wealth quintile
Three: The social protection diagnostics
International
Labour
Office
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Ratio h ig h est-lo w est w ealth q u in tile
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Three: The social protection diagnostics
International
Labour
Office
Old-age pensioners (all ages) as a proportion of the elderly population, 2008
(percentages)
Source: ILO Social Security Department database
Mauritius
South Africa
Namibia
Lesotho
Tunisia
Algeria
Mozambique
Congo
Morocco
Congo, Democratic
Rwanda
Djibouti
Senegal
Côte dIvoire
Cameroon
Zambia
Mauritania
Zimbabwe
Niger
Burundi
Sudan
Ghana
Tanzania, United Rep.
Togo
Guinea
Gambia
Benin
Chad
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Sierra Leone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Old-age pensioners (all ages) as a proportion of the elderly population (%)
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Three: The social protection diagnostics
International
Labour
Office
Total public social security expenditure by region, weighted by population,
latest available year (percentage of GDP)
30
25.1
Public social security expenditure (excluding health)
25
Public health expenditure
20
18.9
16.0
15
13.6
13.5
10.2
10
9.8
8.4
5.3
5.3
Asia and
the Pacific
SubSaharan
Africa
5
Source: ILO Social Security Department database
Percentage of GDP
Total public social security expenditure
0
Western
Europe
Central
and
Eastern
Europe
North
America
North
Africa
CIS
Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
Middle
East
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Total
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seek to provide higher levels of income security
and access to higher quality health care
Four: … an emerging policy framework for the ILO
campaign to extend social security to all: a
staircase and and a story of two dimensions
International
Labour
Office
Voluntary insurance
Mandatory social insurance/social
security benefits of guaranteed levels for
contributors
THE FLOOR:
Four essential guarantees
Access to essential health care for all
Income security
Assistance
Income security
Children
Unemployed/
underemployed & poors
Elderly &
disabled
Extension of some income security and access to health care
to the whole population
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International
Four: The horizontal dimension:
Labour
The social security component of the social
Office
protection floor that could consist of four essential
social security guarantees:
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all residents have …access to a nationally defined set of
essential health care services;
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all children have income security, at least at the level of
the nationally defined poverty line level, through
family/child benefits aimed at facilitating access to
nutrition, education and care;
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all those in active age groups who are unable to earn
sufficient income on the labour markets should enjoy a
minimum income security through social assistance …
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all residents in old age and with disabilities have income
security at least at the level of the nationally defined
poverty line through pensions for old age and disability.
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Four: The vertical dimension:
Back to home turf…
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Promote benefit ranges and levels in
the formal economy that comply with
ILO Conventions
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Promote the ratifications of up-todate Conventions, notably C. 102
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Labour
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Five: Affordability: The simulation
exercise that started the debate –
Assumptions
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Basic old age and invalidity pensions:
–
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based on a health system staffing ratio of 300 medical professionals per 100,000
population, overhead 67% of staff cost …
Basic social assistance for the unemployed:
–
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15% of per capita GDP capped at US$ 0.50 PPP, for a max. of two children in
age bracket 0-14
Essential health care:
–
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30% of per capita GDP capped at US$ 1 PPP per day
Child benefits:
–
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International
Labour
Office
100 day guaranteed employment paid at 30% of per capita daily
GDP to 10% of the population
Administration cost:
–
15% of cash benefit expenditure
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Five: … a basic social protection package is
affordable: Cost of basic transfers…
International
Labour
Office
Costs for components of a basic social protection package
for selected countries in Africa, 2010 (percentage of GDP)
Child benefits
Health care
Social assistance/employment scheme
Administrative costs
Source: ILO Social Security Department. 2008
6
Old-age pensions
Percentage of GDP
5
4
3
2
1
0
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Ethiopia
Guinea
Kenya
Senegal
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
United Rep.
Tanzania
15
Six: Impact…effects on poverty of a basic
package of pensions and child benefits
Senegal
0
International
Labour
Office
Tanzania
Basic needs poverty rate in %
Food poverty rate in %
-10
Percentage
-20
Basic needs poverty gap in %
Food poverty gap in %
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
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Six: Financing strategies:
Lack of fiscal space? The good news
International
Labour
Office
Total public expenditure and social expenditure at different levels of GDP per capita,
latest available year
60
Belarus
Slovenia
Hungary
Ukraine
50
Belgium
Seychelles
Italy
Croatia
Portugal
Greece
Czech Republic
Republic of Moldova
United Kingdom
Slovakia
Morocco
40
Germany
Poland
Bulgaria
Mongolia
Romania
Tunisia
Viet Nam
Azerbaijan
30
Estonia
New Zealand
Uruguay
Russian Federation
France
Argentina
Germany
Bahrain
Albania
Burundi Georgia
Panama
10
Uganda
0
Hungary
Israel
Malta
Singapore
New Zealand
Chile
Estonia
United Arab Emirates
Kazakhstan
Viet Nam
Japan
Czech Republic
South Africa
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
India
Spain
Korea, Republic of
Slovakia
Argentina
Bolivia
Georgia
Burundi
Ethiopia
0
Poland
United Kingdom
Latvia
Russian Federation
Mongolia
Belgium
Italy
Greece
Portugal
Trinidad and Tobago
Panama
Croatia
El Salvador
Uruguay
China
Chile
Indonesia
Thailand
Belarus
Nepal
Dominica
Bulgaria
India
Republic of Moldova
20
Kuw ait
Costa Rica Mauritius
Ukraine
Linear (Public SP &
health expenditure as a
percentage of GDP)
Japan
South Africa
Kuw ait
China
Bhutan
5 000
Bahrain
Thailand
10 000
15 000
Public government
expenditure as a
percentage of GDP
Spain
Latvia
Bolivia
Ethiopia
Public SP & health
expenditure as a
percentage of GDP
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Linear (Public
government
expenditure as a
percentage of GDP)
Sources: IMF, 2009 (various years); UNDATA database
Public SP & health expenditure as a percentage of GDP and
Total government expenditure as a percentage of GDP
France
GDP per capita PPP
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Six: Creating fiscal space –
an historical example……
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Labour
Office
Percentage of GDP
Social expenditure in Germany 1950-2008 as a percentage of GDP
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Six: Good news:
Growing fiscal space
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Labour
Office
Increase of domestic public resources, selected African countries, 2002–07
(percentage of GDP)
50
Before 2002
Estimated 2008
40
30
10
Tanzania
Swaziland
South Africa
Senegal
Nigeria
Niger
Madagascar
Ghana
Chad
Congo R.
-10
Cape Verde
0
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
Source: OECD, 2007.
20
Benin
Percentage of GDP
Difference
19
Six: Financing strategies
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Domestic resource mobilisation
–
–
–
–
–
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Labour
Office
Increase the efficiency of tax collection
Reduce waste
Broaden tax base
Introduce self financing insurance systems (largely health care)
Increase overall tax rates
International resources (transitional financing)
–
–
–
–
Modified social security oriented budget support ?
Project financing to build national delivery capacity
International financing of health care goods and services
Financing of the start-up of social protection floor components
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Six: A reality check “Compendium of cash transfer
programs in developing countries” …a
number of countries are already providing
some basic guarantees …
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International
Labour
Office
Number of countries in study: 28 - 8 in Africa, 9 in
Asia, 11 in Latin America
Number of studies: 80 studies during 1999 and 2008
Number of programmes: 63
Estimated number of total beneficiaries (primary
and secondary, at the end of 2008): between 150
and 200 million people
Expenditure starts at less than 0.5% of GDP…
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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International
Labour
Office
Six: Impact of SPF policies
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Realization of the Human Right to Social
Security
Improved health and nutritional status of
children and other houshold members
Raising productivity
Reduce poverty FASTER => Progress
towards MDGs
–
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A basic package of modest pensions and child
benefits can reduce the poverty head count by 40
per cent in poor developing countries at a cost of
3-4 per cent of GDP
Reduction of economic
political instability
inequalities
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
and
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Six: The Global Jobs Pact and the SPF
as a development strategy
Higher levels
of Social Protection
Employed in formal
sector and
paying taxes
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Labour
Office
SPF
Investments
The virtuous
cycle of
development
Schooling/Training
Good health
Employable
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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Seven: Implementation strategy for
social protection floors for all Africans
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International
Labour
Office
At the Global and African level:
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Adopt a comprehensive development strategy in line
with the Global Jobs Pact, the SPF initiative and the
recurrent item conclusions on employment
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Demonstrate political will through an African
statement on the two dimensional extension of
social security and the Social protection floor
building on ARM in 2007 and Windhoek 2008 and …
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Carry that message to the ILC 2011 including…
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Signaling to the ILC the necessity of a new
mechanism for the Social Protection
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Seven: Implementation strategy for
social protection floors for all Africans
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International
Labour
Office
At the national level:
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develop a national vision on Social Protection
building on the Social Protection Floor and
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translating the vision into a time-bound plan
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Define minimum benefits as of right in a national
dialogue process
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Undertake sound costing exercises
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Create the fiscal space in a national social dialogue
process
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Build national capacities
The ILO Global Campaign to Extend Social Security to All
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