Transcript Economic Statistics: Vision & Strategy

Mapping User Needs: Aligning
Economic Policy with Statistical
Production
Statistics South Africa
Conceptual Framework for
Economic Data Collection
• 1) National accounts – as an intermediate user,
rather than final user (or GDP side of national
accounts) – defines the primary framework for
economic data collection.
• 2) National accounts, in collaboration with
source data, defines the priorities of Economic
Statistics primarily though its concern with the
quality of GDP.
• 3) Identifying broader priorities beyond national
accounts considerations, specifically micro
economic analysis.
Broad Challenges
• Change culture of being supply driven to
demand driven but also lead ?
• Identify the role that econ stats will/can
play in informing economic policy making
• Clearly identify the role, purpose and
function of the variety of mechanisms that
exists.
Scope of Economic Statistics
• Macro Economy with exception of trade in
goods and services, and investment
capital flows.
• Informal Sector
• Labour Statistics
• Income and Expenditure
• Poverty
Perennial Concerns of GDP
• The extent to which GDP quality will
overshadow other important economic indicators
depends on peculiar circumstances
• Remain important challenges in South Africa
• The extent to which demands of users have both
a direct and indirect impact on GDP quality
State of GDP
Are we underestimating size (level) and/or growth ( including real
growth)?
• Concerns about size ( perhaps informal sector requires scrutiny)
• Challenge to convince users that Economic Activity Survey ( which
provides the main but not all the components) is unlikely to be
under-estimating aggregate GDP.
Are we underestimating real GDP growth?
• Convince users we are capturing growth accurately.
• Challenge is to ensure that we are not under estimating growth
owing to incorrect deflators.
State of GDP
Timeliness
• Challenge of tracking turning points better.
• Quarterly refreshment of samples
State of GDP
Allocation of GDP
• Large scope for improvement
• Absence of services indicators
• Absence of activity surveys
• Absence of provincial allocation
Economic Policy in SA
• Finding Alignment between economic
policy priorities and statistical production
• One key economic policy challenge is to
measure changes in the economy
• Thrust of Economic Growth central to a
governments growth strategy
• Basic Economic Challenge – growth and
welfare
Policy Agenda in SA
• Determinants of Growth
- Labour, Capital and Productivity
Core to our business with challenges
• Sources of Growth
where in the economy is growth coming
from
Services?
Policy Agenda
Constraints to Growth
•Crime and uncertainty
•The Impact of HIV/Aids
•Labour market
•Institutional bottlenecks and infrastructural constraints
•Absence of a broad based skilled work force
•Governance and the role of the state – state inertia seen as a constraint to growth
•Lack of competition and mark-ups in the economy
•The problem of entrepreneurship
•Lack of competitiveness
Policy Agenda
The Impact of Growth
• Inequality
• Absolute poverty
• The direct link between reform and poverty
• Income distribution measures
• SMMEs
• Land redistribution
• Social Transfers
Responding to the Policy Agenda
Determinants of growth
improve our analysis of productivity ( QES)
improve our measures of capital formation
( construction)
Sources of Growth
Introduction of Provincial Data Series
Services Sectors ( agenda for improved
coverage)
Responding to the Policy Agenda
Constraints to Growth
comprehensive labour market statistics strategy
competitiveness ( better tracking of prices/improved LSS)
governance and the role of the state ( government accounts/public
finance)
Growth and Welfare/Poverty ?
massive investment in household survey in the post apartheid era
Scope for improved links between macro and micro linkages
Hybrid of Formal Processes
• Regular interface with the Minister of Finance
• Meetings with Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Finance
• The Statistician General is part of the Deliberations of Cabinet at
least twice year along with other Director Generals
• The Deputy Director General of Economic Statistics is part of the
Cabinet Economics Cluster that meets every fortnight.
• Statistics Council
• Advisory Committees
• Ad hoc Working Groups with various government departments and
agencies.
• Annual workshops held organised by Stats SA in all the provinces
Engagement with the Minister
Very Important vehicle for mapping user needs
Average of 2 meetings a month with the entire
senior management.
Nature of meetings – governance and substantive
subject matters
Minister brings unique insights about brewing
policy concerns
Currently works well with high level of democratic
accountability and highly respected minister.
Risk: Individual dependent.
Statistics Council
• Full council meetings at least 3 times a year
• Key function is to advise minister on work
programme
• Existence of sub-committees
• Broad representation from key users in
government, civil society and academia
• The role and impact of council depends on skills
distribution and who is nominated.
• Particularly strong group on poverty
Parliament
• Two meetings a year
• Presentation of three year planning cycle to the
portfolio committee on finance
• The forward work program puts pressure on
StatSA to continously justify its relevance and
impact
• Presentation on annual report – once again and
major achievements for the year
• Presentation to Parliament by Minster on behalf
of StatsSA,
User Groups
Economics Sub
committee
User Groups in
Progress
User Groups Planned
(2007)
Annual Forum with
Economists
Biannual Workshops
with Reserve Bank
Ongoing engagement
Average of 3 meetings a
year
CPI, Agriculture and
Government Accounts
GDP, Labour Market
Statistics
Industry Dynamics
Joint venture with
universities
Scheduled
Improvement In User Interface
•
•
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•
Major weakness
Threatens our ability to be relevant
Affects credibility
Lack of segmentation in defining the
heterogeneity of users
• Implementation of clear and well defined
mechanisms
Improvement in User Interface
• Combination of formal and informal
mechanisms to enhance user interface
• Formal
– User advisory committees
– Information papers and manual
• Informal
– Management participation in forums and
networking
Conclusion
• User Groups – requires internal analytical
capacity
• Need for more systematic review of
questionnaire design, etc
• Continuous attempts to reconcile demand
and supply.