Transcript SUPPORT TO THE STATISTICS SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND …

Support for the Alignment of
Albanian Statistics with EU standards
Improvement of Annual GDP estimation by production
side and the new NOE estimation
Elirjeta Pepaj
20 February 2014
Content:
1. Background of IPA 2007
2. Activity 1: GDP by production approach
2.1. New data sources and Improvement of existing
sources
2.2. Development of new methodologies of GDP
3. Activity 4: Exhaustivenness
3.1. Eurostat Tabular Approach
3.2. Method and sources by type of exhaustivenness
3.3. Labour Input method
3.4. Franz method
4. Future work
1. Background of IPA 2007- Project
General Objectives: GDP (P)-module
1) to identify and to improve new and existing statistical data sources
and methodology for more reliable Annual National Accounts
estimates (A.1)
2) to improve the method and coverage of the non-observed
economy (NOE) in order to ensure exhaustiveness (A.4)
2. Activity 1 (A.1)
GDP by production approach (1/4)
Development of new surveys and use of new data
sources:

Design and inclusion of “Statistical Annex” to the annual financial
statements of institutional units  better estimation of Output (P1)
and Intermediate Consumption (P2).

Two new surveys : 1. For commercial banks
2. For insurance activities
 Use of Census of Non-Agriculture Enterprises 2010 data 
updated Business Register  improved estimations by giving a
better picture of whole economy and reducing the number of
enterprises without information.
2. Activity 1 (A.1)
GDP by production approach (2/4)
Improvements of existing data sources:
 Improvement of the Structural Business Survey based on the NA
requirements, by:

including detail information necessary for the estimation of
production (P1) and intermediate consumption (P2)

incorporating additional questions on employment that allow to
make estimation and analyses of employment in Full Time
Equivalent (FTE) unit;

covering of activities of private Health & Education and
estimating them according to ESA 95 concepts;
2. Activity 1 (A.1)
GDP by production approach (3/4)
Improvements on statistical techniques:

Detail classification of the size of Small enterprises by employment
and turnover

Implementation of new techniques of partial imputations and grossing
up procedures based on output per employment

Quality improvements of the estimations based on deeper analyses of
ratios:
 Output / Intermediate Consumption
 Value Added / Employees (Productivity)
2. Activity 1 (A.1)
GDP by production approach (4/4)
Improvements on methodology side:

Implementation of new method of estimation of financial activities
(S12);

Estimation of FISIM in line with the requirements of Council regulation
(EC) 448/1998 ;

Compilation of estimations in more detail level of NACE Rev 1.1
classification, passing from A25 branches in A60.

Improvement of NOE estimates by applying new methods and using
new sources.
2. Activity 4 (A.4)
NON OBSERVED ECONOMY (NOE)
Identification of all types of NOE:
 based on EUROSTAT Tabular Approach framework where was determined
which types are possible to estimate in order to ensure better exhaustiveness;
Exhaustiveness adjustments by output GDP are done:
 By type
 By institutional sectors
 By activities
Eurostat Tabular Approach is important because:
 Provides a comprehensive and systematic assessment to ensure

exhaustiveness of NA;
Facilitates cross-country comparisons of adjustments and methods to provide
similar level of coverage of NA.
EUROSTAT TABULAR APPROACH (N1-N7)
Not registered
Producer
deliberately
not
registering
N1
Not Surveyed
Producer
not
register
(illegal
activity)
Producer
not
required
to register
Legal
Producers
not
surveyed
Registered
entrepreneurs
not surveyed
N2
N3
N4
N5
Misreporting
Misreporting
by
Producers
N6
Other
Other
statistical
deficiencies
N7
3. Activity 4. Data sources and methods of NOE
Type of
NOE
Description
Method
Sources
N1
Not register producer
Labour input
SBS, LFS, BR, administrative
files
N2
Illegal actvities
Quantity per price
Undergoing IPA 2011
project
N3
Production of HH for own
final use (agriculture and
own construction)
Expert and supply
based method
Agriculture data, HBS and
SBS
N4
Legal persons Not surveyed
Analyses and
comparisons
SBS, BR, NA
N5
Enterpreneures Not
surveyed
Analyses and
comparisons
SBS, BR, NA
N6
Underreporting
Franz and LIM
SBS, LFS, BR
N7
Tips
a fixed % of the
turnover
HBS, NA
3. Activity 4.
Labour Input Method (LIM)

Incorporation of Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, as a new and
appropriate source of information on employment in Albania,
for the implementation of Labour Input Method to estimate N1
and N6 types of NOE;

Application of Labour Input Method for all branches, including
private Health & Education as well (except Agriculture,
Financial and Public Administration);
3. Activity 4.
Labour Input Method (LIM)
The LIM is bases on the following steps:
 obtain estimates of the supply of labour input to GDP, for selected
economic activity and size of enterprise, from a household labour force
survey and/or other demographic sources;
 obtain estimates of output per unit of labour input and value added per
unit of labour input for the same activity and size breakdown from
regular or special purpose enterprise survey;
 multiply the labour input estimates by the per unit ratios to get output
and value added for the activity and size categories
3. Activity 4:
Methodological scheme of LIM
Adjustment of sources
For definitions, classifications and populations target
Employment estimates by employees and
selfemployed, From stock to annual flows, From
persons to Jobs, Other adjustmentse)
Integration of sources
Demand side:
Enterprises surveys and
administrative data
Supply side:
Household surveys and
demografic sources
Comparison of labour input
demand and supply side of employment
(unregistered employment)
Multiply by Value Added/Unit
Labour
Corrected for underreporting
3. Activity 4
Types N3, N4 and N5
 Estimation for the first time of Own construction, N3 based
on Households Budget Survey (HBS) data;
 Analysis of differences between NA estimates and SBS
data for the observed components: N4+N5;
 the number of legal person or registered entrepreneurship that
are included NA estimates but are not surveyed:
 estimates done for conceptual adjustments or consistency
check
3. Activity 4 Franz method
Application for the first time of Franz Method for Underreporting of Production
(N6): The method is applied to SMS enterprises with more than one year life
of activity
X - per-capita of value added resulted from the survey on enterprises
Control of coherencies between the income of the self-employed worker and
compensation of employees
Per capita values corrected for underreporting of output is based on the hypothesis
that the income of the self-employed worker of an enterprise should be equal at
least to the average compensation of employees
X’ – revaluated per-capita of production and value added
When the level of income of a self-employed workers is less then the level of compensations of employees the
income is re-valuated and with the same amount also the production and value added is adjusted
3. Activity 4 (A.4)

After analyzing the methodologies/practices used in other
countries and the possibilities to adjust them to the specific
conditions of Albanian economy  estimation of statistical
deficiencies, N7 in:




Trade;
Hotels and restaurants;
Road passenger transport;
Other personal services;
**The estimates are performed using an expert assessment of the
percentage of tips based of the ratio used in neighbour countries
and adopted for Albania.
Exhaustiveness adjustments by
Institutional Sectors
%
Institutional Sectors
Summary of GVA Adjustments by types: Output Approach - For
reference Year 2009
N1
Non Financial Corporations(S11)
N2
N3
5.97
N4
7.67
N5
3.11
N6
N7
83.25
Total NOE
Adjustments
by
Institutional
Sectors
73.89
Financial Corporation (S12)
General Government (S13)
Households and NIPSH (S14,S15)
67.92
31.39
Total NOE adjustments by type
21.93
9.09
5.61
2.28
60.91
0.69
26.11
0.18
100.00
4. Further work/the way forward



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


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Using of Census of Population 2011 data
Use of back-casted LFS and HBS based on Population census results
Measuring of Illegal activities (ongoing IPA 2011)
Estimation of Onwer Ocupied Dwelling Services (ongoing IPA 2011, IMF)
Use of SUT framework for NOE
Improvement energy estimates (ongoing IMF)
Constant price estimates (IPA 2009 and IMF)
Introduction of NACE Rev 2 (ongoing)
Implementation of new ESA 2010 (ongoing IPA 2011, IMF)

All of the above will impact GDP estimates and we consider this to be
good international practice to publish all recent revisions in coordinated
way in order not to confuse and mislead the users.
Thank You for Your Attention!