Transcript Slide 1

Greece: high growth with low ICT contribution
How can technology-fueled growth be
put on a sustainable path?
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Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF), 1215.07.2007
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Organized by: NTUA (Laboratory of Industrial
and Energy Economics)
Support: iris-europe project (http://atlantisgroup.gr/projects/iris-e/)
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Petros KAVASSALIS
Sat. afternoon session: Case studies (and new
research directions)
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Petros Kavassalis: intro (10 min)
Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions
(20 min)
Petros Kavassalis: Theoretical implications from cases-study work – coordinate
ICT adoption through efficient technology markets and supporting institutuons…
(10 min)
Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10
min)
Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer
industry (10 min)
 PAUSE
Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective
institutions”… (20 min)
Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min)
Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!]
20 min discussion
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Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!
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P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Greece: high growth rates for 10 years
GDP per capita (1995-2005): EU 2nd, OECD 2nd
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High growth rates driven the
last years by:
 Fixed Investment
(equipment)
 Exports (South Eastern
Europe)
Main components of GDP
(2005)
 Private Consumption
(68%)
 Fixed investment (23%)
 Exports (18%)
Also:
 Fast-growing services
sector (Tourism2GDP:
10%)
 Competitiveness and
productivity low (signs of
improvement for productivity)
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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… but low position in Networked Readiness
Index
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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[Note: What is the Networked Readiness
Index?]
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NRI / Networked Readiness Index: the degree of preparation of a nation
or community to participate in and benefit from ICT developments
++
++
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
5
It is going to be clear! But how to explain it?
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GDP constantly increasing: yes
Growth rate: significant
ICT-fueled growth: very low
Public policies for ICT promotion: persistent – relatively well funded
It is important to explain (and, possibly, change trajectory!)
How?
 Beyond cultural explanations
 Do not blame the European Commission…
o
There is an interesting literature providing explanations to Greek ICTlaggardness by concluding on a inadequacy of ICT-supporting public policies: the
transfer of public policy rationales from the most developed EU countries is the
principal cause for:
1.
2.
the inefficiency of Greek public ICT policies
the low technology profile of the high growth rate…
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
6
We have to recognize the modest objective of
(core) EU ICT policy
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EU ICT Policy Goals (according to P. Johnston, EC)
1.
Industrial policy to consolidate the European ICT sector for a single market
and as a globally-competitive private sector, rather than as public
monopolies or ‘national champions’
2.
Consumer welfare policies to provide a wider range of more affordable
communications services to all Europeans
3.
Policies for sustained economic growth stimulating innovation across all the
economy, including in the provision of public services
4.
Plus (peripheral countries): ICT to support “cohesion” strategies
Implementation has been (my appreciation)
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successful in: 1 and 2
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less successful in: 3
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Relatively successful in: 4
Implementation in Greece: 1 (no industrial policy in this regard), 2 (it now gives
results), 3 (no significant results), 4 (more satisfactory in terms of network
infrastructures development)
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Ok, these papers provide… an argument for
euro-skepticism (this is the hype…) but they are
still interesting!
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Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, The Long Road from
Technology to Development…, DRUID Summer Conference
Avgerou, 2000, Recognizing Alternative Rationalities in the Deployment
of Information Systems, EJISDC
Collins and Pontikakis, 2006, Innovation Systems in the European
Periphery: the policy approaches of Ireland and Greece, Science and
Public Policy
Pontikakis, Lin, Demirbas, 2006, History matters in Greece: The
adoption of Internet-enabled computers by small and medium size
entreprises, Information Economics and Policy
Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, When Blueprints are not
of Big Help: Impasses and Challenges of Technology Policy in
Intermediate Economies, Working Paper
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Back to the central question(s)…
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Growth in Greece is modestly “modern” (modern growth: systematic
application of science to economic ends?). Explain
ICT technology policies in Greece obtains weak results (disproportional
to the volume of investments). Explain
Of course, EU peripherals countries are structurally different from core
countries but they converge. Do we need “alternative policies” or better
implementation strategies? Answer
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The discussion is open!
iris-europe’s contribution (http://www.iris-europe.eu/ and
http://www.atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/)
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Aid and accelerate the decision making process of local and regional authorities as far as
regional development policies and efficient use of ICT are concerned: collect and analyze 100
case studies from 4 EU countries and provide a platform for comparative analysis and
reciprocal learning
Twenty (20) case studies will be conducted in Greece: collect information on projects and
practices of successful integration of ICT technologies in public organizations and private
firms (illustrating goals and methods, main actors and relationships between them, concrete
project achievements, theoretical implications etc.)
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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We may never come up with definitive answers
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We are working through cases (limited approach)
 Public Sector: almost done
 Private Sector: we are going to start
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We recognize structural distance of Greek economy from the
“knowledge economy” ideal, as our colleagues do:
 Weak competition
 Dispersion of the industry structure (with many “isolated” SMEs)
 Weak “collective dynamics” in industry organization
 Significant presence of “non-increasing returns” service industries
(get them in the “knowledge economy” world, through ICT, it is not
only a Greek trouble)
 Non particularly efficient business management structures, heritage
from the past / resistance to change
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first
conclusions (20 min)
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation
matters! (1)
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Successful projects imply
 User side: A well defined technology demand and an ability to
monitor implementation
o
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In practice, this happens only within elite public agencies (GRNET,
GSIS)
Producer side: A project implementation strategy able to bring the
new technology into the cognitive framework of its users…
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation
matters! (2)
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Tips: A technology project
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Needs a plan of organizational pre-reforms to implement early in the project
life-cycle
o
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Requires careful design and implementation coherence
o
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In practice, there is cacophony: requirements analysis, implementation and
integration within the user-organization are loosely coordinated
Needs organizational stability
o
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In practice, technology is strategically used to impose reform (Trojan horse)
In practice, pro1ject managers and key-persons change many times, due to
external to the project reasons
(most important) Requires to be designed through close interaction between
implementors and users (ICT systems are much more complex artifacts than
network infrastructures)
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Know how to leverage the potential of communities of users and communities of
practices
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation
matters! (3)
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In brief, an ICT technology project needs a clear and executable design
blueprint and a componentized budget (for organization pre-reforms,
technical implementations, change management, marketing)
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Interesting to know
 Do Universities propose a coherent curriculum of ICT engineer?
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ICT public projects get modest results. What is the reason for civil
engineering public projects success?
Anybody interested to look at that?
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the private sector:
(ongoing research)
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Consumer technology goods diffuse quickly (as quickly as in the rest of
the developed world)
 Perfect examples: mobile phones, medical imaging services
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Industries exposed to the competition adopt ICT technologies pushed by
both the intensity of competition and their participation in global supply
chains
 Example: food industry
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure
problem (1)
[a conceptual model borrowing from Arora et al., MIT Press]
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First, separate things [US Department of Justice]
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Market for technology (markets for goods with a strong “intellectual
property” dimension): transactions for the use and diffusion of technology
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Market for innovation (markets about a future product): transactions for
the creation of new technology [Emilia]
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[Note: Both terms, technology and innovation, refer to “useful” knowledge
embodied in engineering artifacts]
Second, identify the nature of the markets for technology [please correct me if
I am wrong]
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Vertical: ICT technology in Greece is supplied within a two stages market
1.
STAGE 1 To the end-users, by an industry segment of technology integrators,
consultants and “service providers” (I call them, technology suppliers, examples:
Singular-Logic, Mobile Operators, PLANET)
2.
STAGE 2 Technology integrators themselves are sourced by an upstream sector
of technology producers (mostly multinationals – few local specialized technology
producers / SMEs)
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure
problem (2)
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Focus at STAGE 1
 It works well when it is called to satisfy a demand with high “breadth
dimension” (ICT consumer goods)
 It is problematic when it is to serve a demand with “depth dimension”
(ICT in government and business)
o
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Improve the way market STAGE 1 works: it can promote the diffusion of
existing ICT technology
How to improve market coordination: we need a new model of division
 Incentives for consolidation and suppliers specialization
 Open technology supplies industry to EU competition (mergers)
o
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Today [Tsakanikas]: a large industrial base, obviously inefficient, that
points to a lack of effective market selection mechanisms
Demand-side “collective institutions” [Marianna]
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Summary
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Typical policy initiatives to improve ICT adoption:
o
o
o
o
o
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ICT policy
Networked Learning
Social ICT Capital
Information diffusion about ICT opportunities
Networked economy infrastructures
Should add:
 Project implementation blueprint for public sector investments
 More ICT engineers [properly formed as Caloghirou explains + educational
focus on precision and effort]
 Policies to improve coordination through markets (restructuring of ICT
services industry)
 Collective institutions to improve ITC users competencies
This is only a conceptual model. We need:
 More empirical evidence: Comparisons between Greece, Portugal and
Ireland (maybe Spain too)
 Quantitative analysis: Vlachos [last speaker: e-business watch database]
and Tsakanikas [how to measure market stage 1 efficiency?]
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Thanks, enjoy the rest!

Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT…
(10 min)
Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a
consumer industry (10 min)
 PAUSE
Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective
institutions”… (20 min)
Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min)
Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!]
20 min discussion

Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!





P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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Annex
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
20
Ερωτήματα / 3
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Genika milwntas: empodia sto adoption ICT texnologiwn stous 3 autous
tomeis kai kosth pou apaitountai? scalability / extensibility issues?
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Genika milwmtas: Poio einai to ofelos (antagwnistiko pleonekthma) pou
prosferoun ependuseis se ICT se autous tous tomeis (me paradeigmata
endexomenws apo alles xwres)?
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Ti politikes tha mporousan na bohthsoun thn epitaxynsh tou ICT
adoption se autous tous 3 tomeis?
P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>
Syros July, 2007
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