Transcript Progress on GAINS activities

Markus Amann (IIASA)
based on input from Ger Klaassen and Andre Zuber (EC)
State of play of the revision of the
EU NEC Directive
State of play
• DG-ENV has started Inter-Service consultations
• Commission’s agreement planned for July 2008
• No further stakeholder involvement before publication of
final Commission’s proposal
• Once agreed, NEC6 report and scenario details on GAINS
internet will be released
Assumptions on economic drivers for NEC
optimization
• Economic development and energy policy as in PRIMES Nov
2007 baseline
• Energy projection (developed with PRIMES) is compliant
with Climate and Energy package.
– Flexible instruments to cut-off domestic measures
at €30/t CO2
– Assuming trading of renewable energy permits among Member
States
– Results in -12% CO2 in 2020 in the EU-27
• National projections of agricultural activities as used before
Primary energy consumption in EU-27
2000 and projections for 2020
90
80
70
60
TJ
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
National projections 2006 PRIMES 2007 baseline
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other renewables
Other
C&E Package
2005
National projections 2020
PRIMES Baseline 2020
C&E Package 2020
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Emissions relative to 1990
CO2 emissions
of the energy projections assumed for NEC analysis
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Starting point for the optimization
• Current policy case includes:
–
–
–
–
Current legislation (CLE) as before +
Euro-VI proposal +
IPPC proposal +
Compliance with 2010 NECs in 2020
• Environmental objectives of TSAP as developed in CAFE:
– Relative changes of impact indicators between 2000 and 2020
as stipulated by TSAP
– Revert to CAFE methodologies for impact indicators,
i.e., for eutrophication grid-average deposition of eutrophication
instead of ecosystem-specific deposition
– But 5-yrs meteorologies, EU-27, 2020 boundary conditions
TSAP objectives and NEC targets
Unit
YOLLs
TSAP
objective
for EU-25
NEC target
for EU-27
215.6
-47%
114.3
Eutrophication 1000 km2
831.4
-43%
473.9
1000 km2
259.4
-74%
67.4
20295
-10%
18265
Acidification
Ozone
Million
years
2000
EU-27
Costs for achieving the NEC environmental targets
based on the Climate and Energy Package
1600
1400
Costs (million €/yr)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Health impacts
from PM
Acidification
Eutrophication
Ozone
Simultaneous
optimization for all
targets
Environmental improvements and emission
reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020
Environmental improvements
Years of life lost from
PM2.5
Emission reductions
SO2
NOx
Ecosystems area not
protected against
eutrophication
PM2.5
Forest area not protected
against acidification
NH3
Cases of premature deaths
from ozone
VOC
0%
-10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
Impact reductions relative to 2000
Emission reductions relative to 2000
Reduced by Current policy Additional reductions
Emissions reduced by Current policy Additional reductions
-90%
-100%
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Euro/person/yr
Emission control costs for additional measures
on per-capita basis (€/person/yr)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2020
2000
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
1000 Euros/person/yr
GDP/capita
2000 and 2020
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Austria
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
% of GDP
Air pollution control costs 2020
on top of current policy
Costs as % of GDP per Member State
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
Austria
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
% of GDP
0.04
0.03
0.02
Emission control costs (million €/yr)
Trade-off between efficiency and equity
Increase in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
0.06
3.0
0.05
2.5
0.01
0.00
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Austria
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
% of GDP
0.04
0.03
0.02
Emission control costs (million €/yr)
Trade-off between efficiency and equity
Increase in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
0.06
3.0
0.05
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.01
0.5
0.00
0.0
0.01
0.5
0.00
0.0
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
% of GDP
0.04
0.03
0.02
Emission control costs (million €/yr)
Trade-off between efficiency and equity
Increase in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited
Costs as % of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
0.06
3.0
0.05
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Sensitivity cases
1. Without Climate and Energy Package
(i.e., for PRIMES 2007 baseline)
2. Without trading of renewable energy
3. With full implementation of Nitrates Directive
4. For alternative health impact hypothesis (primary PM only)
5. For higher environmental ambition level (as suggested by
European Parliament)
EU-27 emissions of the sensitivity cases
relative to 2000
100%
90%
Emissions relative to 2000
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SO2
TSAP central case
With Nitrates Directive
NOx
PM2.5
No C&E package
Health impacts only primary PM
NH3
No renewables trade
European Parliament
VOC
Sensitivity 1: Without C&E package
Change in emissions vs. central case
Remaining emissions in sensitivity case (% of
2000)
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Remaining emissions in central case (% of 2000)
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
NH3
160%
180%
Sensitivity 2: Without trade in renewables
Change in emissions vs. central case
Remaining emissions in sensitivity case (% of
2000)
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Remaining emissions in central case (% of 2000)
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
NH3
160%
180%
Sensitivity 3: Without trade in renewables
Change in emissions vs. central case
Remaining emissions in sensitivity case (% of
2000)
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Remaining emissions in central case (% of 2000)
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
NH3
160%
180%
Sensitivity 4: No health impacts from sec. PM
Change in emissions vs. central case
Remaining emissions in sensitivity case (% of
2000)
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Remaining emissions in central case (% of 2000)
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
NH3
160%
180%
0%
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR)
TSAP central case
Without C&E
Without RES trade
With ND
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Emissions relative to 2000
SO2 reductions
for the central and the sensitivity cases
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
PPM only
0%
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR)
TSAP central case
Without C&E
Without RES trade
With ND
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Emissions relative to 2000
NOx reductions
for the central and the sensitivity cases
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
PPM only
0%
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR)
TSAP central case
Without C&E
Without RES trade
With ND
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Emissions relative to 2000
PM2.5 reductions
for the central and the sensitivity cases
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
PPM only
0%
Range for emission reductions (CP-MRR)
TSAP central case
Without C&E
Without RES trade
With ND
EU-27
UK
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
Emissions relative to 2000
NH3 reductions
for the central and the sensitivity cases
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
PPM only
Conclusions
• While final decision on NECs not yet taken within the
Commission, NEC proposal will be coherent with Climate
and Energy package
• Proposed emission reductions are in safe distance to MRR
• Sensitivity cases suggest robustness against (reasonable)
changes in major exogenous policy assumptions
• Full documentation will be released after publication of the
final Commission proposal