Transcript www.foreffectivegov.org

Planning a Long-Term
Proactive Tax and
Budget Campaign
Prepared by
OMB Watch
1742 Connecticut Ave., NW
Washington, D.C. 20009
(202) 234-8494
http://www.ombwatch.org
What We Plan To Do
• Call to Action paper – in December, 2003
(see www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/1952/1/18/).
• Internet Survey -- completed by over 700
respondents in Jan/Feb, 2004.
• Regional Strategy Meetings -- in
Columbia, SC; Seattle, WA; Chicago, IL;
Phoenix, AZ, and Philadelphia, PA.
What We Plan To Do (Cont.)
• National Retreat – develop specific
recommendations and next steps.
• Online Resource Center – on tax and budget
information.
• Face on the Numbers -- Online database
(www.ombwatch.org/budget/face.html) of stories
about unmet needs and how a service or program
has made a positive difference.
What Happens Next?
• Develop Specific Recommendations and Next
Steps based on action items under planning
process.
• Determine Whether Resources Can Be Raised
for local, state, and national groups to initiative a
campaign.
• Address Leadership and Organizational
Issues, including coordination, roles, etc.
• Begin Implementing the Plan of Action.
The Crisis:
A Long-Term
Budget Problem
The Budget & Tax
Picture Today
“We’ve got plenty of money in
Washington, D.C., by the way.”
President Bush in Louisville, KY
February 26, 2004
---------------------------------
“The tension is money. There’s
not enough money.”
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Chair
Appropriations Committee
March 3, 2004
Deficit as % of Economy Hits 2nd Highest
Level Since End of World War II
(Deficit excluding Social Security as % of GDP)
6.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
1983
-6.0%
2004
-5.9%
19
47
19
5
19 0
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
7
19 4
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
9
20 8
01
20
04
% of GDP
4.0
Revenue as % of Economy is
Lowest Level Since 1950
22
21
% of GDP
20
19
18
17
16
04
00
20
96
19
92
19
88
19
84
19
80
19
76
19
72
19
68
19
64
19
60
19
19
52
19
48
56
1950
14.4%
14
19
2004
15.7%
20
15
Spending NOT Out of Control
% of GDP
Outlays as % of GDP
21.5
21
20.5
20
19.5
19
18.5
1.8% of GDP =
$207 Billion in
2004
21.3
19.5
1980-2000
2001-2004
Domestic Spending Excluding
Homeland Security
400
Billions
380
383
382
381
383
385
387
2008
2009
376
360
Percent Change
340
2004-2006
-0.5%
2004-2009
+1.0%
320
300
2003
2004
2005
2006
Current $
2007
Domestic Spending Excluding
Homeland Security
400
Billions
380
376
378
360
372
366
Percent Change
340
320
362
2004-2006
-3.2%
2004-2009
-7.0%
357
352
300
2003
2004
2005
2006
Current $
2007
Constant $
2008
2009
Domestic Spending Excluding
Homeland Security
400
380
Billions
376
375
366
360
357
Percent Change
340
320
2004-2006
-4.8%
2004-2009
-10.8%
350
342
334
300
2003
2004
2005
Current $
2006
Constant $
2007
2008
Population Adj
2009
The Longer-Term Budget
& Tax Picture
“I don’t want to abolish
government. I simply want to
reduce it to the size where I can
drag it into the bathroom and
drown it in the bathtub.”
Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform
June 25, 2003
"Which Federal Baseline Do We Use?"
21%
Baseline Receipts
20%
% of GDP
2001 Tax Law
Extended
19%
2002 Tax Law Extended
2003 Tax Law Extended
18%
17%
Other Tax Laws
Extended
Alternative Minimum
Tax Growth Halted
16%
1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019 2026 2033 2040 2047 2054 2061 2068 2075
Source: Steuerle, Carasso, Bishop, based on data from Gale, Orszag, and the Tax Policy Center.
Lost Federal Revenue Compared
to Philanthropic Giving
Assuming charitable giving keeps pace with the
growth in the economy, giving in 2009 will be
$341.4 billion. Charity would need to increase
142% to replace the lost federal revenue,
assuming it continues to fund existing activities.
500
$ in Billions
450
400
350
300
250
485.2
200
150
260.3
100
50
38.1
25.7
0
Lost
Revenue
Individual Foundations Bequests
Giving
17.3
Corp Giving
All figures in 2009 Dollars. Philanthropy source: American Association of Fundraising Counsel’s Trust in
Philanthropy/Giving USA 2003.
As Baby Boomers Come of Age,
the Deficit Explodes
Source: Derived from Chart 12-5, OMB, 2005 Budget, Analytical Perspectives, page 194
2001-03 Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:
Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years
14
In Trillions
12
10
8
6
12.1
4
3.8
2
0
Tax Cuts if Made
Permanent
75-Year Shortfall in
Social Security
The Long-Term Problem
• It’s a Revenue Problem. The tax cuts
since 2001 cause long-term systemic
problems. Additionally, there is a need to
develop a fairer tax system with more
revenue.
• Hard Choices Await Us. Even with
additional revenue, some hard choices
about spending priorities may be
necessary. For example, some note that
current health care policies are not
sustainable over the long-term.
Conservative Perspectives on
Taxes are NOT Supported
I don’t like paying taxes
because…
75%
69%
80
70
60
50
%
49
36
40
30
20
10
26
33
0
The govt doesn’t
do anything for
me
Govt spends too much
money on welfare and
other handouts
Disagree Not
Strongly
Disagree
Strongly
What the Public Does Not
Mind About Paying Taxes
Agree
I don’t mind paying taxes because my
taxes contribute to making sure we have
public schools, clean streets, public
safety and a national defense and a
cleaner environment
I don’t mind paying taxes because my
taxes are part of my contribution to
society as a citizen of the United States
I don’t mind paying taxes because I want
to play a strong role in helping people,
when in need
I don’t mind paying taxes because it is
my contributions to make sure our
government helps create opportunities
and keep the economy growing
Disagree
Not
Not
Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly
61%
23%
5%
10%
56%
26%
7%
10%
46%
30%
11%
12%
43%
32%
10%
12%
Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between
October 21 and October 26, 2003.
The Public Supports a
Strong Government and
the Taxes to Pay for It…
But 65% also Agree “I
don’t like paying taxes
because the government
is too wasteful and
inefficient.”
OMB Watch
Tax and Budget
Internet Survey
About the Internet
Survey
• Not a Random Sample
• Over 700 Respondents with Diversity
in Respondent Pool
• Respondents From Every State But
Nebraska
• Survey Conducted Between January
13 – February 4, 2004
Survey Respondents
• 63% of Respondents Were 501(c)(3)
Groups; 10% government; 9% foundations; 7%
501(c)(4)s; 9% other
• 45% Said Their Primary Activity Was
Service Provision
• 42% Said Their Primary Activity Was
Advocacy Or Public Interest Work
• 42% Said Their Primary Mission Was
Serving Children, Youth & Families
Survey Respondents
Primary Geographic Scope
37%
5%
12%
21%
Local
25%
State
National
Regional
Intl
Groups Follow Tax &
Budget Issues
70% of respondents say they closely follow state tax and budget
issues, and 64% closely follow federal tax and budget issues.
38
Federal
34
State
0
10
20
64%
26
70%
36
30
40
50
60
%
Somewhat Closely
Very Closely
70
Strong Support for a
Tax & Budget Campaign
90% of respondents say it is time to launch a longer-term
offensive campaign on federal tax and budget issues.
Given limited time
and resources and
the fact that there
are many other
important issues,
do you agree or
disagree that it is
time to launch a
long-term
offensive
campaign around
federal tax and
budget issues?
34
0
20
90%
56
40
60
80
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
100
“It is important to identify what we are
for, not just against, in a coordinated,
long-term approach -- similar to what
conservative parties and organizations
have done so well. Instead, the nonprofit sector is misunderstood by the
public, given little to none media
attention (other than scandals and
disasters), and marginalized as a force
in public policy and the public at large.”
South
Carolina All Areas
Support for a Campaign Was Strong in
Every Region
34
43
0
20
90%
56
92%
49
40
60
80
100
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
South Carolina region includes: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC
Chicago All Areas
Support for a Campaign Was Strong in
Every Region
0
34
56
90%
34
56
90%
20
40
60
80
100
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Chicago region includes: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI
All Areas
Support for a Campaign Was Strong in
Every Region
Phoenix
34
28
0
20
90%
56
92%
64
40
60
80
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Phoenix region includes: AZ, CA, NV
100
All Areas
Support for a Campaign Was Strong in
Every Region
Philadelphia
34
35
0
20
90%
56
93%
58
40
60
80
100
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Philadelphia region includes: DE, DC, MD, PA, VA, WV
All Areas
Support for a Campaign Was Strong in
Every Region
Seattle
34
30
0
90%
56
90%
60
20
40
60
80
%
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Seattle region includes: AK, ID, OR, WA
100
Intensity
(0-10 scale)
State and National Groups Feel the
Strongest About Initiating a Campaign
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6.9
State
6.6
National
6.2
All
Groups
5.8
Local
5.6
Regional
5.2
Intl
A “10” would mean all respondents supporting a campaign felt very strongly and no one felt somewhat
strongly. A “0” would mean all respondents felt somewhat strongly and none felt very strongly about the
campaign. A “5” would indicate an event split between very strong and somewhat strong support.
What Should Be the
Objectives of the
Campaign?
9 in 10 Said the Campaign
Should Address:
94%
93%
90%
90%
33
29
29
60
61
61
100
90
17
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
77
20
10
0
Progressive Econ Growth & Funding Fed
Taxes w/
Jobs
Mandates
Adequate $
Very Important
Highlight
Domestic
Needs
Somewhat Important
“Redefine the definitions of "tax"
as more than some kind of
perverse theft of money. Tax must
become redefined in a context of
community-building, fairness,
common ground and even
patriotism.”
Other Supported
Campaign Themes
87%
90
80
75%
24
70
30
60
70%
31
% 50
40
30
20
63
45
39
10
0
Cut Regressive Promote Need for
Revenue for
Taxes
Govt
Unmet Needs
Very Important Somewhat Important
A Majority Oppose Cutting
Spending to Reduce the Deficit
Cut Deficit w/
Spending
Cuts
19
0
Not Important
56%
37
20
%
40
Somewhat Unimportant
60
What Should Be the
Objectives of the
Campaign?
What Should the
Campaign Be Doing?
Top Four Activities
100
Those
items
with more 80
than 80%
support
60
and
%
where at
least 50% 40
felt it was
very
20
important
to do the
0
activity.
89%
88%
31
24
58
64
84%
84%
31
34
53
50
Improve
Develop
Push State & VoterVoter
MobilizationImprove
Language Develop
Policies
Language
We & Principles
Policies &
Federal
for Accountability We
Use -- Values
that
Mobilization
Use
–
Values
Principles
that
for
Legislation on
Based
Language Provide
Provide Vision
Based
Vision
Accountability
Tax/Budget
Language
Very Important
Somewhat Important
“We need less studies and more
grassroots activity…
We need to learn to articulate our
principles in language that 'sells,'
i.e., ‘We're about building
communities we can be proud
of.’”
Other Very Highly
Rated Activities
(At Least 80% Support)
• Educate Community Leaders on
Importance of Fair Taxes & Spending
Priorities
• Research the Impact of Federal Changes on
States and Program Areas
• Media Campaign with Positive Message
• Create a Local, State, & National Network
to Work on Campaign
• Compile Stories About Benefits of
Government as well as Gaps in Services
“Media, media, media - we
need a national and consistent
public information and
marketing campaign to change
minds and opinions of the
American public.”
3 of 4 Say Advocacy
Training is Needed
How important is it to “offer
advocacy training including on
lobbying, grassroots organizing,
and media advocacy?”
Two Activities Identified
As Less of a Priority
• Public Opinion Research on Tax &
Budget Issues
• Case Studies of Budget & Tax
Campaigns
What’s It Take to Get Groups
Engaged?
Distribute Current Info
on Budget/Tax
More Info on Issue Area
Impacts
LOW
Workshops,
Training, Meetings
HIGH
Develop Common Messages, Themes &
Principles
More Info on
State/Local Impact
Funding Tax/
Budget Work
Ranking
“It's very difficult to understand
how the federal budget and taxes
directly impact our local
communities -- we need translation
and messages to reach us at our
own homes and pocketbooks…
Currently, it's difficult to directly
see the consequences of
cutbacks.”
What Should the
Campaign Be Doing?
What Are Some
Challenges That Must Be
Confronted?
Participation May Be a
Challenge
90% of respondents say it is time to launch a campaign BUT
49% say they are unlikely to participate.
3
Launch
Campaign
5
Participate 21
-50
28
34
31
56
16
NEGATIVE 0 POSITIVE
50
100
%
Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely
Somewhat Agree/Likely
Disagree/No
Strongly Agree/Very Likely
Even Though 49% say
They Might Not
Participate in a
Campaign…
61% Say They Will Help
Redistribute Information
About the Campaign
Other Ways Groups Say
They Would Participate
40
35
30
25
% 20
40
38
15
10
25
24
Editorial
Board
Meetings
Be Part of
Leadership
5
0
Town Hall
Meetings
Lobby
Activities
National and State Groups
Most Likely to Participate
27
Regional
Local
23
Intl
23
0
10
49%
26
45%
30
21
National
54%
31
15
State
55%
28
43%
22
20
30
40
%
Not Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
50
60
While Only 54% Said Funding of
Tax/Budget Work is Important…
• Two-thirds of state
and local groups
considered funding
for tax and budget
work important in
getting them to
participate.
• 44% of national
groups considered
funding important.
66%
62%
70
60
50
39
40
%
44%
27
21
30
20
39
10
23
23
State
National
0
Local
Somewhat Important
Very Important
Caveat on Funding (Cont.)
• Two-thirds of those 70
who might
60
participate consider
50
funding for tax &
40
budget work an
%
important incentive. 30
• One-third of those
who are unlikely to
participate consider
funding important.
20
69%
34
35%
14
35
21
10
0
Participators
NonParticipators
Somewhat Important
Very Important
Top Challenges to Confront
It’s an Organizing Issue
76%
72%
80
60
41
40
35
32
% 40
20
0
Lack of
Coordination
Limited Leadership
& Org Structure
Somewhat Challenge
Major Challenge
“I believe there would be a
need to decentralize the
campaign and have
designated organizations to
give regional and local
leadership to these efforts.”
Other Challenges to Confront
Relationships between National, State
and Local Groups
67% say that national groups do not listen to
state and local groups and are out of touch with
their concerns
“National organizations often fail to form the
partnership and show little respect for the amount
of work being done on the local level. In addition,
national organizations are often very ‘abusive’
partners.”
Other Challenges to Confront
Top Down Nature of Federal
Budget & Tax Policy
69% say the top down nature makes state
and local groups feel irrelevant.
“Convincing local organizations to carve out time
for working on ‘bigger picture’ issues when the
day-to-day running of an organization are often
overwhelming.”
Groups Optimistic About
Building a Common Message
62%
70
60
26
50
%
40
30
36
20
10
0
Impossible to Agree on Message
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
“Americans hate taxes, do not trust
the government to spend them well
and want to keep the money for
themselves. To some extent this is
natural, to some extent it has been
very carefully and intentionally
crafted by the right wing groups. That
must be countered or change will go
no where.”
What Are Some
Challenges That Must Be
Confronted?