Transcript Senior Seminar Fall 2008 - Interdisciplinary Studies

Senior Seminar Winter 2011
ISP 4860
Section 001 (Bowen)
Class 8, March 7
Course web site: www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemW11
Agenda
•
•
•
•
Moodle
New on course website
Late / returned / future assignments
Content:
 Economy
 Energy and Global Warming
• Research Portfolio: Self-Assessment
• Writing
 Grammar
 Sentences for Discussion
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New Course resources
• www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/SenSemW11
 Under “Other sites of interest” – links to:
• Valerie Wade’s Winter 2009 Senior Seminar 2
paper online
• New article on Global Warming
o Graphic suggesting worse problems here now
• Ecosystem issues
o
o
o
o
o
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GMOs for drought resistance
Water – can it be free when it is scarce?
Toilet paper and forests
Recycling sewage at the toilet
Catch shares to manage fisheries
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Big effects from early agriculture
• Some feel GMOs going too far
• But there were dramatic changes in plants
almost as soon as humans developed
agriculture
 Domesticated plants lost ability so plant their
own seeds
 Stalk heads used to be brittle – would break,
spread out over season
 Domesticated grains ripened all at once, did
not turn brittle
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Big effects from early agriculture
• Daniel Zohary called this “wheat that waits
for the harvester” (qtd. in Mithen 23).
 MLA citation style for indirect source
 Then in Works Cited the place where you
read the quotation
• Mithen, Steven. After the Ice: A Global Human
History, 20,000 - 5000 BC. Cambridge: Harvard U
P. 2003.
• If reader wants to track down Zohary’s book, s/he
can consult Mithen.
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Assignments Coming Up
• Past assignments: choice of topic, Paper
Planner for Chapter 1, list of references,
draft of Chapter 2
• Due tonight:
 Chapter 2 – status in focus area
 Chapter 3 – trends in focus area
• Next week, 3/14: Spring break
• Next week, 3/21: revised Chapter 1
 I will have drafts back on Moodle by Friday
evening
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Assignments Coming Up
• Three weeks, 3/28: revised Chapters 2 & 3
• Four weeks, 4/4: drafts of
 Chapter 4: Sustainability in focus area (or lack
of sustainability)
 Chapter 5: summary of how your focus area
fits into total human footprint
• Five weeks, 4/11: no assignments due –
catchup!
• Six weeks, 4/18: final paper
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Assignments Coming Up
• Six weeks, 4/18: final paper
 Cover page, five Chapters, Works Cited
 All collected together in one file
• How to do this: next class
• Seven weeks, 4/25: last class meeting
 Oral Reports to class on your paper
• 5 – 10 minute summary
• One-page handout with copies for class and me
• Handout on presentation and form I will use
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Research portfolio
• Self-assessment will be repeated one
more time during semester
 3/7 (tonight)
 4/4, including my assessment
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Economic Problems
Recession
• “Recession is over”
 A recession only lasts while the economy is
shrinking
 As soon as it starts growing again, recession
is over, even though economy still in poor
shape
 This recovery slow
 Consumers still afraid and unable to spend
 Businesses have money they are sitting on
• Why should they expand if they can’t sell what they
can make now?
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Recovery
• So government needs to spend to keep
the money wheel moving
 Must borrow to spend (deficit spending)
because tax revenue are low
• One reason that consumers cannot spend
is because middle class has not benefitted
economically from recent growth
 Gini index a measure of economic inequality
• The higher the index, the greater the range in
incomes
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US Gini
• US
Gini
(estmated
before
1967)
US Gini Index
50
40
30
20
10
0
1920
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1940
1960
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1980
2000
2020
13
World Ginis
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Current State Crises
• Bound to happen after states lost US
stimulus spending
• Will pass down to local governments now
and in the future
• Also foreclosures slowing economic
growth
• One argument for labor unions benefitting
the economy – middle class income
increases
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Content: Energy and Global
Warming
Energy and Global Warming
• All energy sources have environmental
impacts
• Energy is a critical input to technological
and economic development
• Reserves: known to exist, can be used at
present prices with present technology
 Oil: used one trillion barrels (BOE – Barrel of
Oil Equivalent), have one trillion in reserves,
possible another trillion exists
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Energy and Global Warming
• Reserves:
 Coal: 1 trillion metric tons (1000 kg, about
2200 pounds) in reserves
 Natural gas: 150 trillion cubic meters in
reserves
 Uranium: 3 million metric tons (largest amount
of energy
• Conclusion: have enough
 Not all can be substituted (liquids best for
transportation)
 Reserves are unequal
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Energy Use by Sector
• EJ = Exajoule = 9.5 × 1014 BTUs
 1014 = add 14 zeroes
 US annual energy use ~ 500,000 EJ
• Fossil fuels: decayed organic matter
 Oil, coal, natural gas
 Heavy dependence on these in all areas
• GHG: Greenhouse Gas
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Energy Use by Sector
Sector
Agriculture
Developing
World
1.0 EJ/cap
Developed
World
2.7 EJ/cap
Services
1.4 EJ/cap
18.7 EJ/cap
Industry
10.3 EJ/cap
48.1 EJ/cap
Residential
10.6 EJ/cap
30.7 EJ/cap
Transportation
5.5 EJ/cap
56.5 EJ/cap
Other
1.1 EJ/cap
1.2 EJ/cap
Total
29.9 EJ/cap
158.5 EJ/cap
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Energy Use by Source
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Energy Use by Source
Nuclear
800
Renewables
700
600
Quadrillion BTUs
• BTU:
Energy
to raise
1 lb
water
by 1°F
World Energy Use
500
Natural Gas
400
Coal
300
200
Liquids
100
0
1990
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2000
2007
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2015
2025
2035
22
Oil
“Peak
Oil” –
generally
, the year
in which
oil use
will peak
– 2010+?
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Petroleum Consumption
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Economics
• Transportation Fuels now have rising
prices
 Fell at beginning of recession because
markets felt energy demand would fall with
production and consumption, so oversupply
• Now rising because of uncertainty in
Middle East (probably short term), and
growing demand (long term)
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When Fuel Makes Transportation
Expensive:
•
•
•
•
Small (fuel efficient) cars
Alternative fuels
Short commutes
Build manufacturing plants close to
assembly plants close to markets
• Globalization in trouble
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Burning: Combination With Oxygen
• Burning: Carbon (C) and Hydrogen (H)
atoms from fuel combine with Oxygen (O)
atoms from air (air also 80% Nitrogen (N) )
• Combustion processes and products
(ideally)
 C + O2  CO2 (carbon dioxide) a GHG
 2H2 + O2  2H2O (water, steam) (benign)
 Would like all combustion products to be
these
 Energy released is per atom
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Burning: Combination With Oxygen
• Also:
 2C + O2  CO (carbon monoxide)
 N + O  NO2, NO (nitrogen (di)oxide)
• Can also have H and C from fuel
combining – hydrocarbons (smog)
 mH + nC  CnHm
• Can also have Sulfur (S) as impurity in fuel
 S + O  SO2, SO3 (sulfur oxides or SOX)
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Burning: Combination With Oxygen
• NOX and SOX lead to acid rain when
combined with water vapor
• Coal: pure C, leads to 100% CO2
• Gasoline: ~ equal C and H
• Natural gas: CH4 (least CO2 per energy
output)
• Transportation: liquid fuels are dense with
atoms, and easy to process
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Burning: Combination With Oxygen
• Sidetrip for “Hydrogen Economy” –
hydrogen as a fuel
 2H2 + O2  2H2O (water, steam) (benign)
 No GHG
• But: There is nowhere we can drill to find
hydrogen – we must manufacture all we
use, usually from water
 2H2O  2H2 + O2  2H2O
 No net energy benefit – like electricity
 Environmental impact depends on how we
generate
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Burning: Combination With Oxygen
• “Hydrogen Economy”
 Also, gaseous fuels are not dense enough for
transportation use
 Must be highly compressed (dangers) or
dissolved in an exotic metal
• Best method is not clear
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Global Warming
• Light comes in to earth from sun
 Some absorbed on surface, warming earth
and reradiating heat (infrared) radiation
 Rest reflected, exits to space
 Greenhouse gases in upper atmosphere trap
reradiated infrared radiation, some returned
and further heats earth
• Amount of warming now about 1ºF but
projected to rise rapidly
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 By 2100, projections = 2.5ºF to 11.5ºF (avg
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7ºF)
History of Global Warming Science
• 1827 Joseph Fourier basic model of earth
heated by sun, shedding heat into space,
temperature is balance between those two
• 1861 John Tyndal did lab measurements
of Global Warming effects of water vapor,
CO2, other trace gases
• 1896 Svante Arrhenius calculated
theoretical increase in Earth’s temperature
due to increase in CO2
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History of Global Warming Science
• 1950s Charles Keeling started measuring
CO2 concentration at remote Mauna Loa
• 1960s & ’70s Syukuro Manabe et al.
developed equations now used by
computer modelers
• 1988 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) formed by World
Meteorological Association and United
Nations Environment Programme
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Atmosphere,
Climate and
Change by
Thomas
Graedel and
Paul
Crutzen,
Scientific
American
Library,
1997.
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New York Times, “Computers Add Sophistication, but Don’t Resolve Climate Debate,” Science Times Pg D3 8/31/04
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• Largest effect in
Antarctic
 Snow reflects the
most, sea water the
least
 Arctic ice
disappearing
 Polar bears in
The New Yorker, cover, 12/12/05
danger

Eskimos
suing
US
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Kaya Identity
• Analysis developed by Japanese energy
economist Yoichi Kaya
 What factors in Global Warming can we control? (*)
• F = P * (G / P) * (E / G) * (F / E)
 F is global CO2 emissions from human sources
 P is global population,
 G is world GDP (* G / E = energy intensity of
economy)
 E is global primary energy consumption
 * F / E is carbon release per unit of energy having to
do with sources of energy and energy efficiency
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Kaya Factors
US Department of Energy Information, 5/10
G/P
F
P
F/E
E/G
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Icecaps and Hurricanes
Evidence for Global Warming:
• Thawing icecaps
• Coral bleaching
• Hurricanes
• Melting glaciers
• Desertification
• Rising sea levels
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That’s not all…
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) report 2007
• IPCC: joint organization of climate
scientists and government leaders
• We can now see the results directly,
instead of using computer models
• Some areas may see initial benefit,
but if there is no end, all areas will
suffer
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That’s not all…
• Insurance industry raising premiums to account
for expected higher damages
• Power and auto industries expect regulation,
want it soon so they know what to plan for
• Report released today on U.S. “National
Security and the Threat of Climate Change”
• Board of senior (retired) military
• Reduced natural resources, so threats to
stability
• Increased needs for humanitarian aid
• New sea lanes to be protected as ice melts
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What is Happening Now
• General world average increase in
precipitation
 Higher temperatures mean more evaporation
from lakes, rivers and oceans
 The water has to come down eventually
 Some areas dry out
• Increased cold weather in MI and NE
 Rising polar temperatures cause high
pressures which push Jet Stream to South
• Strong storms
 More heat → more turbulence
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Ecological Changes
• Animals generally migrating northwards,
and to higher altitudes
 Birds relatively free to migrate
• Africa
• US songbirds
• Plants less free
 May tie animals in place to food sources
 Many plants depend upon specific animals for
seed dispersal
 Some CA trees migrate downhill for water
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Ecological Changes
• Many examples of interspecies
coordination for breeding and germination
 These patterns can be disrupted
• Many opportunities for loss of fertility
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• What to do? “Do-nothing” Options:
 Deny Global Warming exists
 Nothing. Live with it. (Physical and
ecosystem consequences not known)
• Humans can adapt quickly, natural world
cannot – evolution is slow, but humans are
mostly free of evolution
 Cosmetic actions. Cite uncertainty, call for
more research
• Will never have 100% certainty
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• Options for action (continued):
 “Invisible hand” of market
• Trade CO2 permits
 Limit CO2 production (e.g. by tax)
• Increase energy efficiency, use waste energy,
switch to low-carbon fuels (natural gas) away
from coal and petroleum
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• Options for reaction
 Remove CO2 once it is generated
• Sequestration – pressurized underground or
under deep ocean
 Geoengineering
• Stop sunlight from coming to Earth, e.g. by
seeding SO2 to form clouds or putting BIG
mirrors in orbit
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• Options for Reaction (cont’d)
 Genetic Modification to help natural world
adapt to sudden climate change (new this
year)
• Even 1º can cause large problems for many
species
• We will make adjustments for us and our living
dependants such as crops and herds
• Evolution is too slow for natural world
 Prepare disaster plans
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Global Warming (cont’d)
• (DB) Recent polls says US thinks
scientists are confused about Global
Warming. NOT!
 Deliberate confusion caused by industry
groups opposed to controls
• Citing 2 or 3 out of 2,500
• Citing many scientists who are not climate
scientists
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Global Warming
• Some areas will probably benefit, at least
at first
 MI  two crops per summer
 However, if Global Warming does not stop,
effects get worse
• Disruption of natural world – evolution takes
thousand of generations to adapt, but Global
Warming happening MUCH faster than that
• Lakes dry up
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Some Conservative Objections…
• Religious: God would never destroy Creation
 But: God helps those who help themselves
 Human stewardship of Creation
• It isn’t happening
 But: Something is happening!
• It won’t be serious
 But: there is a range, but it includes serious effects
• It’s happening but it isn’t our fault
 But we still need to protect against the damage
• Control will be bad for business
 But: destruction of environment bad for business also
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Writing
Paragraphs
• Paragraphs
 A major new topic needs a new paragraph
• Signal to the reader
 Some people like more paragraphs, some
fewer
 Academic writing usually tends to fewer
(appropriate for complex topics)
 Be consistent
 Often can correspond to outline levels
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Paragraph
• Handout
 An article with paragraphs removed: one long
paragraph
 Break it into paragraphs at topic changes
• Small groups, group report on each
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Class
• Discuss sentences on the list.
• I will type corrections under each one and
post on Moodle for your reference.
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