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ESPON 2.1.1
Territorial Impact of EU Transport and
TEN Policies
Roberta Capello
Seminario ESPON
15 gennaio 2004
Roma,Università di Tor Vergata
Aims of the project
 to provide a cost assessment of future efficiency and
cohesion ICTs policies, through the construction of policy
scenarios and the measurement of the impact of efficiency
and cohesion policies on regional growth and disparities.
 to detect different regional responses to ICTs policies, by
highlighting different behavioural attitudes and reacting
capacities of regions in front of alternative ICTs policy
scenarios.
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Territorial impact of EU ICTs policies
Available results:
– maps on
• accessibility absolute growth rate
• Internet absolute growth rate
• pc GDP average annual growth rate
(at 2020 in the three scenarios)
– cohesion indicators
• Lorenz curves
• Gini coefficients
• maps on differences in pc GDP average annual growth
– typologies of regions by ICTs policies impact
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STIMA model structure
Change of ICTs investments
Change of ICTs endowment
Quasiproduction function
Change of
GDP per capita
Change of
absolute GDP
Change of
virtual accessibility
Change in regional
disparities
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Data
 Scarce availability of disaggregated territorial data on ICTs
– at Nuts 3: no availability
– at Nuts 2: EOS Gallup Survey 1999
• survey conducted in households in the 15 Countries of the
European Union
• data collected through face-to-face interviews
• by means of a quantitative questionnaire
• on a representative sample in each Member State
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EOS Gallup sample
Country
Sampling Plan
Real Sample
Nuts level used for sampling
Belgique
2000
1961
NUTS 1
Danmark
2000
2060
NUTS 3
Deutschland
5000
5139
NUTS 1
Ellada
2000
2000
NUTS 2
España
5000
5000
NUTS 2
France
5000
5301
NUTS 1
Ireland
1400
1397
NUTS 3
Italia
5000
5134
NUTS 1
Luxembourg
1000
1009
NUTS 1
Nederland
2000
2037
NUTS 1
Österreich
2000
2000
NUTS 1
Portugal
2000
2138
NUTS 2
Finland
2000
2002
NUTS 2
Sverige
2000
1951
NUTS 2
United Kingdom
5150
5211
NUTS 1
Total
43550
44340
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Scenario Hypotheses
 Scenarios based on hypotheses on regional distribution of
EU ICTs investments
– among regions
• lagging vs advanced
– among ICTs policies suggested by eEurope 2002 (DG Information
society)
• accessibility
• internet connections
• high-tech employment
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Distribution of ICTs investments according to different
ICTs policy scenarios
ICTs Scenarios
Regions
ICTs Policies
Scenario A
Indiscriminate scenario
All regions
All regions
Investments distributed according to 33% Accessibility
regional population
33% Internet
33% High tech employment
Scenario B
Efficiency scenario
Lagging regions
Lagging regions
20% of total investments
70% Accessibility
Investments distributed according to 30% Internet
the share of
lagging regions
population
Non lagging regions
Non lagging regions
80% of total Investments
30% Accessibility
Investments distributed according to 70% Internet
the share of non lagging regions
population
Scenario C
Cohesion scenario
Lagging regions
100% of total investments
Investments distributed according to
the share of
lagging regions
population
Lagging regions
33% Accessibility
33% Internet
33% High tech employment
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Forecasting methodology
 2% of average annual ICTs investments in 15 EU member states
 estimate of marginal efficiency of investments in accessibility, internet
connections and high-tech employment
 forecast of pc GDP average annual growth rate in 20 years
 cohesion indicators (lorenz curve, gini coefficient)
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Scenario A: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario B: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Scenario C: pc GDP average annual growth rate
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Cohesion indicators
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Typology of regions by ICTs policies impact
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Further Research
 Model refinement of STIMA according to data availability
 Model integration of SASI and STIMA
 Qualitative analysis of specific policies like deregulation
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