Transcript Warsaw - Ministry of Economy

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Our Global Energy Future
Looking beyond the economic crisis
Mr. Nobuo Tanaka
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Ministry of Economy
Warsaw
12 May 2009
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Weakening economy
drives oil demand revisions
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Source: Platts
30
Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09Mar 09 Apr 09
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
m b/d
89
88
87
OMR 2009 Oil Demand & GDP
Forecast Evolution
Y-o-Y
%
5
World GDP Grow th
4
Total Dem and
3
2
86
1
85
0
84
-1
83
-2
Ju
l-0
8
A
ug
-0
Se 8
p08
O
ct
-0
N 8
ov
-0
D 8
ec
-0
Ja 8
n0
Fe 9
b0
M 9
ar
-0
A 9
pr
-0
9
$/bbl
IEA April 2008 Oil Market Report
 Two year demand contraction in 08/09 first since early-1980s
 OECD hit hard, but clear signs that non-OECD is slowing now too
 Latest GDP estimates suggest -1.4% for 2009, with consensus of gradual
recovery in 2010
 Prices bottoming-out in the face of OPEC supply cuts, and a degree of postG20 ‘bounce’
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Evaluating oil supply-side impacts
Change to 2009 supply forecast, net of 2008
baseline changes, mb/d
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
OPEC crude
OPEC gas liquids
Non-OPEC
-1.40
-1.60
-1.80

Supply also affected, on weak demand, low prices, credit crunch & investment slippage、

2009 forecast already down by 1.7 mb/d since July 2008, excluding 2008 baseline changes

Canada & Russia taking a hit in terms of investment & likely output

$50/bbl oil unlikely to see extensive shut-ins of current output per se

But impact of lower spend on new projects and prevailing decline rates at mature fields
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World Oil Production by Source
IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008
Business as Usual Scenario
20 mb/d
45 mb/d
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Around 65 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the
current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth and offset decline
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Long-term oil-supply cost curve
(with $50 per tonne of CO2)
A carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO2 would increase the cost of producing non-conventional oil
the most – by as much as $30 per barrel – due to its higher energy intensity
© OECD/IEA - 2009
European Responses to
January 2009 Gas Supply Disruption
Timeline of Actions
7 Jan (immediate)
10 Jan.
16 Jan.
18 Jan.
Yamal
increase
BBL NL-UK reduced
Interconnector
UK-BE reversed
Increase Germany -Croatia
Reverse flow Czech
to Slovakia
Hungary increase
to Serbia & Bosnia
Blue Stream
increase
Increasing Croatian
production share offtake
Reverse flow from
Greece to Bulgaria
Additional spot LNG to
Greece & Turkey
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Cumulative energy supply investment
in Business as Usual, 2007-2030
Coal
3%
$0.7 trillion
Transmission
& distribution
50%
Power
Oil
Gas
52%
$13.6 trillion
24%
$6.3 trillion
21%
$5.5 trillion
Shipping
4%
Refining
16%
Power
generation
50%
Exploration and
development
80%
Transmission
& distribution
31%
LNG chain
8%
Biofuels
<1%
$0.2 trillion
Shipping &
ports
9%
Exploration &
development
61%
Mining
91%
Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the
credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a
supply-crunch once the economy recovers
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Gigatonnes
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Business as Usual Scenario
45
International
marine bunkers
and aviation
OECD - gas
OECD - oil
OECD - coal
Non-OECD - gas
Non-OECD - oil
Non-OECD - coal
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
© OECD/IEA - 2009
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from
non-OECD countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone
Gigatonnes
Energy-related CO2 emissions
450 Policy Scenario
45
International
marine bunkers
and aviation
OECD - gas
OECD - oil
OECD - coal
Non-OECD - gas
Non-OECD - oil
Non-OECD - coal
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline
by more than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Gigatonnes
Reductions in energy-related
CO2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario
45
World total
Reference Scenario
40
35% (5.2 Gt reduction)
OECD+
35
Non-OECD
30
65% (9.5 Gt reduction)
450 Policy Scenario
25
20
2005
CCS - 21%
CCS 14%
Nuclear - 14%
Renewables & biofuels - 18% Nuclear 9%
Renewables &
Energy efficiency - 47%
biofuels 23%
CCS - 10%
Nuclear - 6%
Renewables & biofuels - 25%
Energy Efficiency
54%
Energy efficiency - 59%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
•OECD and non-OECD countries must both work towards reducing CO2 emissions
•Energy efficiency plays a key role for both OECD and non-OECD countries
•To inform the international climate negotiations, the IEA will release an early excerpt of the
© OECD/IEA - 2009WEO 2009 climate change analysis, to coincide with post-Kyoto negotiations this September
Total power generation capacity today
and in 2030 by scenario
Coal
1.2 x today
Gas
1.5 x today
Nuclear
1.8 x today
Hydro
2.1 x today
Wind
13.5 x today
Other renewables
12.5 x today
Coal and gas with CCS
15% of today’s coal & gas capacity
0
1 000
Today
Reference Scenario 2030
2 000
3 000
GW
450 Policy Scenario 2030
In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change –
with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Roadmaps can accelerate deployment of
key clean energy technologies
 Supply side
 Demand side
CCS power generation
Coal – IGCC
Coal – USCSC
Nuclear III + IV
Solar – PV
Solar – CSP
Wind
Biomass – IGCC & cocombustion
 Electricity networks
 2nd generation
biofuels








 Energy efficiency in
buildings
 Energy efficient motor
systems
 Efficient ICEs
 Heat pumps
 Plug-ins and electric vehicles
 Fuel cell vehicles
 Industrial CCS
 Solar heating
 Efficient industry processes
(starting with Cement)
Work has already begun on technologies shown in green,
and these roadmaps will be launched later in 2009.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Global electricity generation
(450 ppm Scenario)
1%
1%
100%
18%
75%
16%
9%
(1%)
4%
5%
15%
22%
6%
Wind
Hydrogen
Other Renewables
20%
50%
40%
Biomass & Waste
18%
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
25%
41%
18%
Oil
2%
Coal
21%
0%
2006
2030
Renewables and nuclear power will increase
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Nuclear power needs
to play a larger role in 2050
Nuclear power generation (TWh)
10,000
9,000
Others
8,000
Transition
economies
OECD Pacific
7,000
6,000
OECD Europe
5,000
OECD North
Amercia
India
4,000
3,000
China
2,000
1,000
0
Baseline
2005
Baseline ACT Map BLUE Map Baseline ACT Map BLUE Map
2030
2050
Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 shows that significant increase of
nuclear generation in both OECD countries and non-OECD countries is essential to
halve the current level of energy related CO2 emission by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
IEA 25 energy efficiency policy
recommendations across 7 priority
areas
1. Across sectors
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Measures for increasing investment in energy
efficiency;
National energy efficiency strategies and goals;
Compliance, monitoring, enforcement and
evaluation of energy efficiency measures;
Energy efficiency indicators;
Monitoring and reporting progress with the IEA
energy efficiency recommendations
themselves.
2. Buildings
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Building codes for new buildings;
Passive Energy Houses and Zero Energy
Buildings;
Policy packages to promote energy efficiency
in existing buildings;
Building certification schemes;
Energy efficiency improvements in glazed
areas.
3. Appliances
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mandatory energy performance requirements
or labels;
Low-power modes, including standby power,
for electronic and networked equipment;
Televisions and “set-top” boxes;
Energy performance test standards and
measurement protocols.
4. Lighting
4.1
4.2
Best practice lighting and the phaseout of incandescent bulbs;
Ensuring least-cost lighting in nonresidential buildings and the phase-out
of inefficient fuel-based lighting.
5. Transport
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Fuel-efficient tyres;
Mandatory fuel efficiency standards
for light-duty vehicles;
Fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles;
Eco-driving.
6. Industry
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
Collection of high quality energy
efficiency data for industry;
Energy performance of electric
motors;
Assistance in developing energy
management capability;
Policy packages to promote energy
efficiency in small and medium-sized
enterprises.
7. Utilities
7.1
Utility end-use energy efficiency
schemes
Billion dollars
Impact of financial crisis on global investment
in renewable energy
90
Geothermal
80
Marine & small-hydro
Biomass
70
-38%
60
Solar
Wind
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Renewable energy investment has collapsed due to the financial crisis – which has dried
up sources of project finance – and lower fossil-fuel prices ….
… IEA G-8 paper estimates spending in 2009 will drop by 38% relative to 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Source: NEF, IEA analysis
Carbon Capture and Storage –
energy efficiency alone is not enough
Average worldwide
~28.4%
EU average
gCO2/kWh
~1110 gCO2/kWh
~36%
State-of-the art
PC/IGCC
~880 gCO2/kWh
~42%
~740 gCO2/kWh
Advanced R&D
~48%
~665 gCO2/kWh
but deep cuts only by
CCS
<2020
adapted from VGB 2007; efficiency – HHV,net
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Carbon Capture and Storage only 4 full-scale projects exist today
© OECD/IEA - 2009
G8 goal: 20 full-scale demonstrations
announced by 2010
CO2 Storage Prospectivity
Source: Bradshaw, J. and Dance, T. (2004): “Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world’s sedimentary basins
and regional source to sink matching,” in (E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith and C.F. Gilboy eds.), GHGT-7, Proc. Seventh International
Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, September 5-9, 2004.
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Shifting to the 450 ppm scenario
requires significant investment
5 000
450 Policy Scenario
(additional to 550)
Billion dollars (2007)
4 000
550 Policy Scenario
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2010-2020
2021-2030
Power plants
2010-2020
2021-2030
Energy efficiency
Huge investment in power plants and energy efficiency is required to shift the world
onto a 450 ppm trajectory
© OECD/IEA - 2009
mb/d
Total oil production in 2030 by scenario
120
Non-OPEC
OPEC
100
9 mb/d
16 mb/d
80
60
12 mb/d
40
20
0
2007
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario
2030
2030
450 Policy Scenario
2030
Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil
fuels, but even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d
from now to 2030
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Summary
 For energy security
 need to diversify oil and gas sources
 must ensure continued supply-side investment to
meet oil demand and address production decline in
mature fields and investment throughout the gas
supply chain
 For energy security and climate change mitigation
 must invest in low carbon technologies: CCS,
renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency must all
be embraced
 Economic crisis is an opportunity to place a Clean Energy
New Deal at the heart of economic stimulus packages
everywhere.
© OECD/IEA - 2009