Transcript Terms of Trade

National Accounts Briefing
September Quarter 2014
Real GDP growth moderated in the quarter
6
Per cent
Per cent
6
5
5
4
4
Through the year
3
3
2.7
2
2
1
1
0
0.3
0
Quarterly
-1
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
Note: The range of market expectations was 2.7 per cent to 3.3 per cent for through-the-year growth and
0.4 per cent to 0.9 per cent for quarterly growth.
-1
Sep-14
2
Strong contributions from consumption and
net exports over the year
3
Percentage points, tty
Percentage points, tty
3
2.7
2
2
1.6
1.4
Change in
Inventories
1
0.3
New Business
Investment
0.2
1
0.4
0
0
Household Dwelling
Consumption Investment
-1
New Public
Final Demand
Net Exports
GDP
-1
-0.9
-2
Note: This chart shows through the year contributions to GDP growth. The sum of individual components does not
add to the aggregate due to rounding.
-2
3
Nominal GDP fell with commodity prices
in the quarter
12
Per cent
Per cent
12
Through the year
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2.7
2
0
0
-0.1
Quarterly
-2
-4
Sep-04
-2
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-4
Sep-14
4
Real gross domestic income growth
has fallen with the terms of trade
10
Per cent
Per cent
Through the year
8
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Quarterly
-2
-4
Sep-04
-2
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-4
Sep-14
5
Terms of trade continued to decline
120
110
Index (2012-13=100)
120 200
Index (Sep-04=100)
200
110 175
175
Export prices
100
100 150
150
90
90 125
125
80
80 100
100
Import prices
70
70
60
60
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
75
75
50
50
Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14
6
Exports driven by iron ore
12
Percentage points
Percentage points
12
Other goods and services
9
Coal
9
Iron ore
6
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-6
Sep-14
Note: This chart shows percentage point contributions to through the year growth. Iron ore data is sourced from ABS trade
data. Coal includes coke and briquettes. Other goods and services is calculated as a residual of the total.
Source: ABS cat. no. 5302.0 and ABS trade data.
7
Household consumption
7
Per cent
Per cent
7
6
6
5
5
Through the year
4
4
3
3
2.5
2
2
1
1
0.5
0
0
Quarterly
-1
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-1
Sep-14
8
Components of household consumption
-4
-2
0
2
Electricity, gas and other fuel
Communications
Clothing and footwear
Furnishings and household equipment
Alcoholic beverages
Recreation and culture
Other goods and services
Education services
Hotels, cafes and restaurants
Rent and other dwelling services
Transport services
Health
Operation of vehicles
Insurance and other financial services
Food
Purchase of vehicles
Cigarettes and tobacco
4
Per cent, qoq
-4
-2
0
2
4
9
Dwellings investment fell in the quarter
15
Per cent
Per cent
10
15
10
Through the year
6.8
5
5
0
0
-0.9
Quarterly
-5
-10
Sep-04
-5
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-10
Sep-14
10
Continued strength in the dwellings pipeline
13
$billion
'000
50
Private building approvals (RHS)
12
45
11
40
10
35
Dwelling investment (LHS)
9
Sep-04
Sep-06
Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and 8731.0.
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
30
Sep-14
11
New business investment continued to fall
30 Per cent
Per cent 30
25
25
20
20
Through the year
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-0.7
Quarterly
-5
-10
Sep-04
-5
-5.4
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-10
Sep-14
12
Business conditions have caught up with
confidence
20
Net balance
Net balance
20
15
15
10
10
Confidence
5
5
0
0
-5
-10
Oct-09
Conditions
Oct-10
Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
-5
-10
Oct-14
13
New public final demand remained weak
12
Per cent
10
Per cent
12
10
Through the year
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
1.0
0
0
-2
-1.3
-2
-4
Sep-04
Quarterly
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
-4
Sep-14
14
Pick-up in leading employment indicators
40
Per cent, tty
Per cent, tty
30
40
30
ANZ Job Advertisements
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-20
-10
DoE Internet Vacancies Index
ABS Job
Vacancies
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Source: ABS cat. no. 6354.0, ANZ and Department of Employment.
Oct-12
Oct-13
-50
Oct-14
15