Balance of Payments Statistics: A European Perspective
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Transcript Balance of Payments Statistics: A European Perspective
Balance of payments and
related statistics:
a European perspective
Rodrigo Oliveira-Soares
Dublin, 23 February 2012
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.
Outline
• Introduction
• ECB Monetary policy
• Monitoring macroeconomic imbalances
• Macroeconomic oversight
• Euro area statistics
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Introduction
"a body of methods for making wise
decisions in the face of uncertainty."
Wilson Allen Wallis (1912–1998),
US economist and statistician.
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Monetary policy of the ECB
4
Monetary policy of the ECB
Relationship between balance of payments and
international investment position
5
Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
Risks to price stability
Flows affecting monetary conditions and exchange
rate markets
Macroeconomic projections
Quarterly sector accounts
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Monetary policy of the ECB
Euro area as a whole
Balance of payments
Monthly
Quarterly vs. main counterparts
International investment position
Quarterly
Annual vs. main counterparts
Data in public data warehouse
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Current-account balances, euro-area Member States
(as % of GDP) – Surplus and deficit countries
Source: European Commission
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Source: European Commission
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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances
Improve EU economic governance
Alert mechanism to prevent and
correct imbalances.
Early warning system based on 10 economic indicators
of competitiveness, among which:
Current account balance
Net international investment position
Export market shares of goods and services
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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system
Independent EU body
reduce systemic risks to financial stability
avoid financial distress
smooth functioning of the internal market
Set of indicators (White Book), including:
Current account balance
Gross external debt
Net interest payments
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Statistics for the euro area as a whole
How do we gather statistics?
Transactions and positions
with non-residents (“extra”)
17 countries + ECB own accounts
ECB Guideline and Recommendation
Portfolio investment
– security-by-security
– centralised database
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Statistics for the euro area as a whole
Implementation of new standards by 2014
Timely quarterly statistics
Consistency with national accounts
Relevance of the
international investment position
Financial intermediaries
Investment fund shares
Listed / non-listed equity
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Thank you for your attention
Questions?
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