Transcript S/MFM Seminar 2007

Jean-Marc Israël
Head of Division,
Monetary and Financial Statistics
ECB
Euro Area Statistics
Skopje Seminar
2-5 October 2013
ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB functions
• Define and implement monetary policy
• Conduct foreign exchange operations/hold and manage official
foreign reserves
• Promote smooth operation of payment systems
• Contribute to smooth conduct of policies relating to banking
supervision and stability of the financial system
[Eurosystem: ECB and national central banks of 17 (18 from 1.1.14) countries in the euro area]
[European System of Central Banks (ESCB): ECB and national central banks of 28 EU Member States]
2
Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU)
FI
EU Member States
which have adopted
the euro
SE
EE
LV
EU Member States
with a special status
LT
DK
IE
UK
NL
BE
EU Member States
with a derogation
PL
DE
CZ
LU
AT
SI
FR
IT
SK
HU
RO
HR
BG
PT
ES
GR
CY
MT
Key characteristics of the euro area
€ -17
EU -27*
Population (millions)
333
504
314
128
GDP (PPP, € trillions)
9.5
13.4
12.3
3.5
GDP per capita (PPP, € thousands)
28.5
26.6
39.3
27.6
Share of world GDP (PPP, %)
13.7
19.4
18.9
5.6
Exports (goods and services, % of GDP)
26.8
18.3
14.1
15.4
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
18.4
17.9
15.8
21.2
Gross saving (% of GDP)
20.2
18.9
12.9
24.5 **
* The figures for Croatia are not yet available.
Sources: for euro area and EU: ECB, Eurostat, national data, IMF and ECB calculations; for the United States and Japan: national sources, IMF.
** refers to 2011
Governance of European statistics (I)
The System
ESCB of
European
Central Banks
ECB
European Statistical System
Eurostat
+
+
National Central Banks
National Statistical Institutes
Prime responsibility
Prime responsibility
 Monetary and financial statistics
 International reserves
 Effective exchange rates
 Quarterly financial accounts
 General economic statistics (e.g. GDP,
HICP, other price statistics, labour market,
other short-term statistics, foreign trade)
 Other statistics (e.g. agriculture)
Shared responsibility
 Balance of payments
 International investment position
 Non-financial sector accounts
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Governance of European statistics (2)
 The ESCB and the European Statistical System (Eurostat and
National Statistical Institutes) develop, produce and disseminate
European statistics
 under separate legal frameworks, reflecting their respective
governance structures
 Memorandum of Understanding between ESS and the ESCB (updated,
April 2013) enhanced cooperation:
• European Statistical Forum – strategic cooperation
• work jointly in Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of
Payments statistics (CMFB) - operational cooperation
6
Legal
infrastructure
Legal
frameworkfor
forEuropean
Europeanstatistics
statistics(1/2)
(1/2)
Legal
framework
Article 338 of TFEU
2533/98)
Financial
Vehicle
Corporations
10
10
ECB-UNRESTRICTED
ECB legal instruments concerning statistics
• Regulation – directly imposes obligations on reporting agents in euro area
• Guideline – imposes obligations on Eurosystem (including ECB)
• Recommendation – informs statistical authorities other than central banks in
euro area of ECB requirements; not legally binding
• Decision – imposes obligations on addressees; can also be without addressees
• Notice – to inform/explain
• Opinion – expression of ECB view, usually in response to a consultation under
Treaty/Statute
Also Memorandum of Understanding – its nature and status
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Brief overview of ECB statistics
•
MFI (banking) balance sheets; monetary aggregates and counterparts
•
MFI interest rates
•
Securities issues
•
Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries
•
Financial markets
•
Payment systems
•
Balance of payments
•
International investment position
•
Other external statistics
•
Government finance
•
Euro area integrated institutional sector accounts
NB: ECB uses also many statistics from sources outside ESCB/Eurosystem
(prices/costs, national accounts, labour market statistics, etc.), and that
responsibility for some of the above is shared with Eurostat
[MFI = monetary financial institution]
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Who does what in ESCB/Eurosystem
Article 5 ( Statute): “… the ECB, assisted by the national central banks, shall
collect the necessary statistical information […] The national central banks
shall carry out, to the extent possible, the task[s]…”
•
NCBs:
- Collection of data from reporting agents, other national statistical
authorities, other national sources
- All contact with reporting agents/representative bodies
- Compilation and publication of national aggregates/contributions to euro area
aggregates
•
ECB:
- Collection of data from other Community/international sources (e.g. Eurostat, BIS)
- Compilation and publication of euro area aggregates
•
Shared:
- Conceptual/development work, development of legal/technical infrastructure
(ECB in lead)
- Participation in Community/international statistical committees
NCBs perform many of their tasks in accordance with ECB Guidelines.
NCBs have responsibility for meeting the ECB’s requirements.
Though there are instances of specialisation, all Eurosystem NCBs contribute to statistical work in
broadly the same way.
[BIS = Bank for International Settlements ( Basel)]
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Complying with international statistical standards
• System of National Accounts (1993) and other Manuals
– IMF Balance of Payments Manual, 5th edition (1993)
– IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM 2000)
– IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001)
• European System of Accounts (1995)
… complemented by legal definitions, compilation guides and
manuals, at international and European level
• ECB Statistics is currently implementing the new standards
SNA 2008; ESA 2010; BPM 6
11
Compiling euro area aggregates
•
Usual approach – build from national contributions.
•
Importance of harmonisation of the national contributions.
•
Some euro area aggregates are a simple sum of (harmonised) national data, but some not.
•
National money stock commonly includes deposits held by residents with banks located
in the country concerned. Euro area money stock includes deposits held by residents of
all euro area countries with banks (MFIs) located anywhere in the euro area
– it exceeds the sum of national money stocks by the amount of cross-border
depositing within the euro area.
•
National balance of payments statistics measure all cross-border transactions of residents
of the country concerned
– the b.o.p. of the euro area excludes cross-border transactions within the euro area
– gross flows in the euro area b.o.p. fall short of the sum of national b.o.p. flows
by the amount of these cross-border flows within the area
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National and euro area monetary aggregates
In German M3
Deposits held by
Germans with MFIs
in Germany
In neither German nor Austrian M3
In Austrian M3
Deposits held by
Deposits held by
Germans with MFIs Austrians with MFIs
in Austria
in Germany
Deposits held by
Austrians with MFIs
in Austria
All the above are components of euro area monetary aggregates
I----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I
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Reference reporting population for ECB statistics
• Central banks, other MFIs
• Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries
• Post office giro institutions
• Entities holding cross-border positions or carrying out cross-border
transactions
• Issuers of securities or e-money
The reference reporting population is confined to entities resident in the
euro area (but the ECB may collect from them consolidated data which
includes information relating to their branches outside the euro area).
This is all set out in Community legislation Regulation No 2533/98 - notable
amendment here in No 951/2009 is extension of reference reporting population
to include insurance corporations and pension funds.
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Monetary and financial statistics
• Monetary and financial statistics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Monetary aggregates and counterparts, minimum reserves
Interest rates, securities issues
Investment funds
Financial Vehicle corporations
Insurance corporations and pension funds
Financial soundness indicators, financial integration indicators
Financial stability statistics, of which Consolidated Banking Data
Financial market statistics - yield curve, PDFs -
15
ECB statistical support for the ESRB
 Council Regulation 1096/2010: The ECB has to provide
statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
 Main sources of data for the ESRB are:




Data exchange with the European Supervisory Authorities
(EBA, ESMA, EIOPA)
Statistical support from the ECB/ESCB
Commercial data providers and other datasets
Ad-hoc surveys
 ECB, STC and its working groups involved actively in several
workstreams
 Examples: identify main datasets for the ESRB;
• setting up the White Book, Risk Dashboard, Analysis of National
Banking Systems;
• help shaping the data flows between the ESCB and the European
System of Financial Supervisors
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Financial stability: ESRB Risk Dashboard
Composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS)
Average systemic risk contribution of individual
institution to overall risk using CoVar (EU banking
syst.)
Bank liabilities structure (annual growth rates for
EA)
Domestic credit-to-GDP ratio
Actual and forecasted GDP growth
Households debt to gross disposable income
Real estate comm. property, market size over GDP
Global risk aversion indicator
Price/earning ratio
EU large banks: Leverage ratios
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External statistics
Euro area balance of payments and international investment
position - including international reserves

•
Monthly balance of payments
•
Quarterly breakdown by main partners
•
International investment position (balance sheet) and link to balance of
payments

Nominal and real effective exchange rates of the euro

The geographic breakdown of the euro area current and capital
account, international investment position and trade in goods
is published in the ECB Monthly Bulletin
18
Government Finance statistics

Protocol on the EDP: 3% and 60% of GDP as reference values for
government deficit and debt reserves

Complete set of government accounts
(revenue, expenditure, debt and deficit-debt adjustment) providing an integrated
overview of the government balance and debt in annual frequency

Fiscal discipline is essential for the stability of the euro
•
keeping price stability: direct (e.g. VAT) and indirect effects (wages)
•
containing inflation expectations: rising government debt may lead to pressure
on the ECB to tolerate higher inflation to erode the real value of debt
•
keeping financial markets stable: interest rate on government debt in one
country is affected by the evolution of other countries deficits and debts
quarterly breakdown by main partners
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Euro area accounts

Complete description of euro area economic and financial
developments: whole economy and by institutional sector (financial
and non-financial corporations, households and government, rest of the world)

Integrates monetary, financial and economic statistics

Consistent statistical basis for quarterly economic analysis,
with integrated non-financial accounts and financial accounts

Enables analysis of interrelations between key macro-economic
policy indicators (e.g. household saving rate, indebtedness and changes in wealth;
entrepreneurial income of non-financial corporations; government debt)
20
EAA by Institutional sectors
Instititutional Sectors
S1
Total Economy
S11
Non-financial corporations
S12
Financial corporations
S121+S122 Monetary Financial Institutions
S123+S124 Other Financial Institutions + fin. aux.
S125
Insurance Corp and Pension Funds
S13
General Government
S14+S15
Households and NPISH
S2
Rest of the World
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For whom to whom: long term loans
Assets
Transactions
S11
S12K
S12P
S125
S13
S1M
S2
SD
TOTAL
7.7
58.7
-61.2
5.1
1.6
0.0
-36.6
S11
40.3
27.4
24.6
-50.9
3.7
0.7
0.4
34.3
0.0
S12K
S11
-5.1
S12K
0.0
S12P
-75.5
-1.6
5.2
-13.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
-65.2
0.0
Liabilities
S125
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
S13
29.1
0.1
13.4
18.9
0.6
-0.8
0.0
-3.1
0.0
S1M
27.8
0.2
18.2
10.4
1.4
0.6
-0.4
-2.5
0.0
S2
-46.3
-18.4
-2.3
-25.8
-1.0
1.2
0.0
S12P
-44.5
Liabilities
S125
-1.5
S13
-2.7
S1M
-0.1
S2
-22.3
0.0
1.6
-17.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
-28.8
0.0
0.0
-1.4
-1.1
-0.4
-4.7
0.0
6.2
0.0
0.0
-7.6
-0.6
0.0
4.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
-7.2
-4.0
-10.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
S12P
706.8
17.1
425.9
194.3
8.7
0.2
0.0
60.6
0.0
Liabilities
S125
78.7
0.2
24.5
10.4
30.4
2.1
0.0
11.1
0.0
S13
1095.3
17.9
810.9
31.2
75.4
104.7
0.0
55.1
0.0
S1M
5372.1
14.5
4593.6
248.6
112.1
43.9
21.3
338.0
0.0
S2
1743.6
627.0
292.1
762.2
31.2
31.2
0.0
Other Changes
Assets
TOTAL
S11
S12K
S12P
S125
S13
S1M
S2
SD
-3.6
-17.2
-21.7
-0.9
-0.4
0.0
-32.3
3.5
-5.0
7.6
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-11.0
0.0
0.0
Assets
Outstanding Amounts
S11
S12K
S12P
S125
S13
S1M
S2
SD
TOTAL
1464.1
9765.5
1674.0
309.1
357.1
49.5
1100.1
S11
5723.0
787.4
3618.4
427.3
51.3
174.9
28.2
635.3
0.0
S12K
0.0
SD
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SD
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SD
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
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General economic statistics
• Other European statistics used by the ECB
(Eurostat primary responsibility):
• Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
• GDP
• Business indicators: industrial production, retail trade, etc.
• Employment, unemployment, labour costs, etc.
23
Decision-making bodies for ECB statistics
ESCB Statistics Committee (STC) and its Working Groups
are at the core of the production of ECB statistics
ECB Governing and
General Councils
ECB Executive Board
ESCB Statistics
Committee (STC)
WG on Euro
Area
Accounts
WG on
External
Statistics
WG on
General
Economic
Statistics
WG on
Government
Finance
Statistics
WG on
Monetary and
Financial
Statistics
WG on
Statistical
Information
Management
WG on
Securities
Statistics
24