Transcript WSDOT Truck Freight Highway Benefit and Economic Impacts

Washington State Department of Transportation
Truck Freight Benefit Evaluation Methodology for
Highway Projects
Barbara Ivanov
Lynn Peterson
Katy Taylor
Freight Systems Division Director
Secretary of Transportation
Chief of Staff
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
(AASHTO)
Subcommittee on Highway Transport (SCOHT)
July 10, 2013
The Washington State Freight Mobility Plan
The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) will
complete the MAP-21-compliant State Freight Plan in December 2013.
Freight Plan Goals:
• The Washington State Freight Mobility Plan will develop and
prioritize freight transportation system improvement strategies that
support and enhance trade and sustainable economic growth,
safety, the environment, and goods delivery needs in the state.
•
The State Freight Plan will guide capital and operating investments
in the state’s freight systems.
•
The Freight Plan will integrate existing state plans into a single
state freight plan to address all modes in the state system: truck,
freight rail, waterway, and air freight.
2
Washington State Freight Plan
Freight Plan Objectives:
• Urban goods movement systems that support jobs, the economy,
and clean air for all, and provide goods delivery to residents and
businesses.
• Washington’s competitive position as a Global Gateway to the
nation, and the state and national Export Initiatives.
• Rural economies’ farm-to-market, manufacturing and resource
industry sectors.
Today, we’ll focus on one of the Freight Plan’s new deliverables related
to truck freight. WSDOT has developed and tested a truck freight
benefit evaluation methodology to evaluate and prioritize state truck
highway improvement proposals.
3
MAP-21 recommends that states analyze the
economic impacts of projects with freight
benefits
Excerpt from MAP-21 Interim Guidance on State Freight Plans (Oct. 2012)
“9. The State’s Decision-Making Process
The (USDOT) Department encourages States to conduct economic analysis as
part of the State Freight Plan, including analyses of benefits and costs of
various improvements....”
10. The State’s Freight Improvement Strategy
..a State Freight Plan must include a description of the strategies the State is
employing to address freight mobility issues….
Each…. strategy would…include:
An analysis of how proposed improvements will affect specific supply chains
and industries that have been identified as important to the State….”
What are the desirable elements of a method to
evaluate truck freight economic impacts?
1. Transparency – We want to be able to explain exactly how the
economic impact evaluation results were produced.
2. Control when the economy changes – WSDOT Freight Systems
Division needs to adjust model variables for various circumstances
and scenarios and update them when there are significant changes
in the economy.
3. Comparable results across the agency – WSDOT is moving
toward a standard economic impact analysis for both passenger and
truck freight benefits. The final method must address both issues.
4. Cost effective – Which approach provides the highest value at the
best cost?
WSDOT Truck Freight Highway Project Benefit
Evaluation Process
WSDOT worked with three technical teams to prioritize the state’s six truck freight
performance goals. The methodology evaluates five of the high-priority freight benefits:
• Network resiliency
• Travel time
• Direct truck operating costs
• Economic output
• Truck emissions
The truck freight project benefit evaluation process uses these models:
•
Travel demand models (TDM) – The method uses existing travel demand models
from Washington State Metropolitan Planning Organizations to calculate changes in
network travel times. Washington doesn’t have a state travel demand model.
•
Economic impact models – WSDOT tested the Washington State IMPLAN model
(IMpact analysis for PLANning) and the Washington State Regional Computable
General Equilibrium Model (CGE) to evaluate truck-related economic impacts.
•
Emissions model – The process uses the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator
(MOVES 2010) model developed by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) to estimate the change in truck emissions.
Truck Freight Project Economic Impact Analysis
Workflow
INPUTS
Project Specific Data Inputs
(e.g. amount of capacity
added)
Travel Demand Model
OUTPUTS
Benefits from:
• Travel Time Savings
• Operating Cost
Savings
• Emissions Changes
Section 1: Modeling Freight
Transportation Related
Benefits
MODEL
FRAMEWORKS
Section 2: Modeling
Economic Impacts Using
• Regional CGE
• Input-Output
•
•
Employment Changes
Regional Economic
Output
WSDOT Freight Systems Division tested the
method on several highway projects
The first step in the method is to evaluate a project’s direct truck benefits with
a regional TDM. Here are the results for an example project.
Present Value of Benefits
Start Year
End Year
Benefit Category
Light Truck Travel Time Benefits
Medium Truck Travel Time Benefits
Heavy Truck Travel Time Benefits
Light Truck Operating Cost Benefits
Medium Truck Operating Cost Benefits
Heavy Truck Operating Cost Benefits
Light Truck Emission Impacts
Medium Truck Emission Impacts
Heavy Truck Emission Impacts
Total
2010 Dollars
2020
2040
$ 16,870,448
$ 3,734,396
$ 5,813,874
$ 27,414,479
$ 6,156,708
$ 10,074,584
($ -1,020,024)
($ -6,223,976)
$ 21,129,964
$ 83,950,454
Why is the emissions benefit a negative value?
Medium Truck NOx Emission Rates
0.9
0.85
Emission rates (grams/mile)
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
Speed (mph)
• Light and medium truck emission impacts were negative though the
traffic performance was improved after the investment due to vehicle
emissions increasing with higher operating speed.
• For example, medium truck NOx emission rates in 2020 drop while
operating speed increase from 0 to 30 mph, and grows again when
the speed raise from 30 mph to 60 mph.
Lessons learned from using regional TDM
models to estimate direct truck freight
benefits:
1. Not all TDM modelers are experts. Thus analysts need to understand the
assumptions, inputs and parameters of the TDMs. Meanwhile, the TDMs’
outputs need to be verified.
2. The assumptions of land use, household and employment growth rate of
each TDM should be examined to ensure comparability among different
models.
3. The length of the project analysis periods of each evaluated project must be
the same to ensure comparable results, e.g. 20 years.
4. Appropriate local data (value of truck travel time, operating cost and
emission rates) of different types of truck and time period should be
investigated before calculating the direct freight benefits.
5. More than one year of TDM outputs allow more realistic analyses, having at
least the first and last year is recommended.
WSDOT Freight Systems Division then tested
two economic impact models
1. Input-Output (I-O) Model: IMPLAN
Pros: Fixed price I-O models are relatively simple to implement,
computationally easy to calculate, and are considered reliable for short-run
applications.
Cons: I-O models only capture a partial equilibrium response because all
relative prices in the economy are fixed and substitution of inputs is not
possible, therefore a shock to the economy (higher taxes, increased subsidies,
changes in production technology, etc.) results in an economic response that
never changes the ratio of inputs (labor and capital).
2. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE): Washington State CGE Model
Pros: CGE models can calculate changes in industry productivity. They don’t
contain restrictive, fixed-price assumptions and provide a more realistic realworld result. CGE models are flexible, allowing relative prices to change.
What are truck freight economic benefits?
• Infrastructure improvements change the state of the interactions of the actors
within the economy.
• The economic benefits measure changes in the economy that occur as a result
of the direct truck benefits, and therefore can’t be added to the direct benefits.
• Changes in employment and output represent the vertical value of the step and
are characterized as the employment or output change in a single year. This is
not a forecasting model, so the model is not projected forward.
Generalized Change in the State of the Economy Following Infrastructure Investment
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
1
2
3
4
5
6
Status Quo
7
8
9
Post Investment
10
11
12
13
14
Results of WSDOT’s freight economic impact
analyses of the example project
Sector
AGFOR
MIN
UTIL
CONST
MANUF
WTRAD
RTRAD
TRAWAR
TRUCK
INFO
FININS
REAL
PROTEC
MANAG
ADMIN
WMAN
SOCSER
ARTS
FOOD
OTHR
Total
Statewide Results
Regional (KKPS) Results
Employment Change
Output Change
Employment Change
Output Change
CGE
I-O
CGE
I-O
CGE
I-O
CGE
I-O
24.7
8.3
$ 2,434,388
$863,258
0.9
2.6
$ 458,833 $ 162,220
0.7
0.2
$ 163,883
$54,401
0.1
$
24,809
0.5
$
81,161
0.6
0.2
$ 609,093
$118,837
0.1
$
82,423
0.2
$ 282,394
4.4
11.6
$ 297,974 $1,691,373
11.2
3.5
$ (220,120) $ 1,765,154
48.5
17.8
$20,710,000 $8,407,446
16
65.8
$26,940,775 $ 7,287,183
5.3
4.8
$ 1,349,171
$806,033
4.6
4.9
$ 1,217,588 $ 828,811
12.2
19.7
$ 1,137,063 $1,427,753
18.1
11.8
$ 856,045 $ 1,421,375
-5.7
3.1
$ 301,464
$476,347
3.6
-22.5
$ (1,972,232) $ 619,333
-58.9
7.3
$ 150,264
$863,115
6.6
-52.3
$ (443,142) $ 846,983
-1.6
2
$ 387,011
$988,445
2.6
-6.2
$ (1,770,518) $ 1,449,344
4.5
5.4
$ 1,855,827 $1,189,973
5.6
4.1
$ 1,576,007 $ 1,266,748
4.2
5.4
$ 2,695,406 $1,602,876
5.4
2.9
$ 1,846,269 $ 1,582,808
4.1
7.1
$ 1,373,595
$855,452
7.4
2.3
$ 865,956 $ 987,127
3.1
1.8
$ 737,807
$358,158
2.2
5.2
$ 1,188,807 $ 455,877
6.2
5.4
$ 630,411
$352,234
5.6
2.7
$ 382,313 $ 412,955
0.1
0.4
$ 109,365
$120,297
0.3
$
84,163
0.2
$
63,573
12.3
15
$ 2,097,184 $1,360,793
15.2
12.4
$ 1,538,130 $ 1,466,137
2.3
3.8
$ 177,371
$184,943
4.2
2.3
$ 124,164 $ 219,494
6.9
10.3
$ 530,516
$619,458
10.3
5.9
$ 321,379 $ 649,390
11.1
17.4
$ 2,284,771 $1,561,963
15.9
9.2
$ 1,460,538 $ 1,551,574
85.1
147
$40,032,564 $23,903,155
55.5
135.9
$34,797,920 $23,163,908
What do the WSDOT example project’s
economic impact results mean?
•
The trucking industry (TRUCK) will have a negative change in employment,
job loss, when the project is built. Productivity has increased and fewer
drivers and equipment are required.
This confirms previous WSDOT research showing that the trucking sector
responds to increased congestion (that reduces productivity) by adding
trucks and drivers.
•
Manufacturing, agribusiness, and retail trade, all highly-freight-dependent
industries, are more productive. They add jobs and produce more
economic output.
•
As the freight-dependent sectors become more efficient, consumer goods
cost less and consumers may have more to spend on services. So the
service sectors experience a positive effect.
What did WSDOT learn from testing these
economic impact models?
•
The I-O model can compute the change in demand, but isn’t able to fully
account for the improved productivity of the trucking industry, and therefore
cannot accurately model how the trucking sector meets increased demand.
•
The CGE model is able to directly model increased productivity of an
industry and is therefore is able to model the entire economy-wide reaction
to the infrastructure improvement that is a result of decreased operating
cost and travel time.
•
WSDOT is moving toward a standard economic impact analytic method for
both passenger and truck freight benefits. The final method chosen will be
informed by this work, and address both issues.
We are very interested in your ideas and
feedback.
What’s most useful for you in this approach?
What are we missing?
For more information, please contact:
Barbara Ivanov, Director
WSDOT Freight Systems Division
[email protected]