Transcript PhD St. Ion Ghizdeanu President NCEF PhD St. Dana

National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
The real convergence of the Romanian
economy – long term perspectives
PhD Ion Ghizdeanu
President NCEF
PhD St. Dana Ţapu
Counselor NCEF
CMTEA 2008, Iasi, Romania
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
The Real Convergence Process – a complex process
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Real convergence – complex and still not
methodologically clarified enough;
The convergence process became
increasingly important for the EU after the
single currency was adopted;
The real convergence is more vaguely
defined
The nominal convergence is sustainable
only under the circumstances of a real
competitive economy
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National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
Improving the real convergence is not
equal to reducing the gap;
The real convergence reflects the
interdependence among the uniqueness of
the European market and the specificity of
the national markets
The real convergence is about structures,
inflows and behaviours linked to
production, distribution and consumption of
goods and services
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National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
A comprehensive approach of the real
convergence should not limit to the “strictly
economic” sectors, but it should regard the
society on the whole;
The real convergence is an aggregate
process;
The development of this process can be
measured, on the one hand, through GDP
per capita and, on the other hand through
the structural changes registered by the
economy
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
2.Progress with the convergence of the Romanian
economy
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1997-1999 - structural transformation stage under
the circumstances of an economic involution.
The period 1997-1999 represented the first period of
compatibility of the economic structures to the EU
requirements.
2000-2004 stage - economic re-launching and
implementing the “ community acquis”
2005-2006 stage- development acceleration and of
the real convergence
after January 1st 2007 period - the very moment of
accession,
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
Gross domestic product per capita in PPS
45
41.0
38.9
40
34.1
35
% of EU 27
30
35.5
31.5
26.0
27.6
29.4
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
Source: EUROSTAT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
The gaps between Romania and some EU member states
(=1.00) regarding the GDP per capita
2000
2004
2007
Bulgaria
0.92
1.01
1.08
Spain
0.26
0.34
0.38
Ireland
0.20
0.24
0.28
Hungary
0.46
0.54
0.65
Poland
0.53
0.67
0.76
Portugal
0.33
0.46
0.55
Source: EUROSTAT
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
The structure of GDP by branches
2007
2004
2005
2006
Industry
25.1
24.6
24.3
23.5
Agriculture
12.8
8.4
7.8
6.6
Constructions
6.0
6.4
7.4
9.1
Services
45.2
48.8
48.8
49.6
Net taxes
10.9
11.7
11.7
11.1
GDP
100
100
100
100
Source: EUROSTAT
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
Romania has the capacity to keep a high real
convergence rhythm, at least from the following
reasons:
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Romania faces nowadays the beginning of a
period with important foreign capital inflows
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European funds
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The economic growth potential can be amplified
due to the lower level of development
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The share of the total public debt in GDP is lower
than the Maastricht criteria value
National Commission for Economic
Forecasting
CMTEA 2008, Iasi, Romania