Transcript Multi-gas abatement analysis of the Marrakesh Accords Paul

Michel den Elzen, Paul Lucas and
Marcel Berk
National Institute of Public Health and the
Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 1
http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Objective FAIR 2.0
 To explore and evaluate the environmental and
abatement costs implications of possible future
international climate policy regimes for differentiation of
mitigation commitments
 The model is not made to promote any particular regime,
but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and
transparent way
 NB:
 Developed to support long-term policy development, but also
used for analysing near-term policy issues
 Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available
for other Parties as well.
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2
http://www.rivm.nl/fair
Features of FAIR
 Contents:
 links “differentiation of commitments” to “adequacy of
commitments
 based on established science (IPCC)
 includes many proposed regimes options
 includes emission trading and costs
 Form:
 PC computer model
 geographical user interface
 relatively simple to use
 Interactive
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 3
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Some proposals for climate change regimes
 Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)*
 Multi-criteria (CICERO)
* Green = included in
FAIR 2.0
 Multi-stage (RIVM)*
 Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)*
 Global Compromise (Benito Müller)*
 Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero)
 (global) Triptych approach (UU)*
 Technological convergence (Tol)
 (Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)*
 Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT)
 Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)*
 Soft landing (IEPE)
 Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM
 SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town)
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FAIR model versions
 Strategy: different models for different target groups
 General Public: web model version:
 aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building
 conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support;
no publications without consent RIVM
 Policy Advisors: full model version (no access to code)
 aim: support other Parties in policy analysis
 conditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement;
limited support; no commercial use; no publication without
consent RIVM
 Research institutes: full model (access to code)
 aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis /
publications
 conditions: selected network partner; collaboration
agreement; contribution to development of model; no
commercial use
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FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Triptych
approach
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
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Regions in FAIR 2.0
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Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version
 Historical emissions (1765-1995):
 CDIAC (only CO2)
 EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO2 GHGs)
 Baseline scenario
 IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios
 IMAGE-POLES scenario
 Emission profiles
 two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.)
 Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves
 MACs CO2: energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE)
 MACs non-CO2: GECS (European Commission)
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Emissions allocation model of FAIR internet
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 9
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Climate regimes included in FAIR 2.0
 Brazilian proposal approach *
 Multi-Stage (RIVM) *
 Contraction & Convergence (GCI) *
 CSE convergence *
 Global Compromise (Muller) *
 Grandfathering *
 Multi-criteria convergence
 Jacoby rule (MIT)
 Emissions Intensity Targets approach *
 Triptych approach (Utrecht/NWS)
* Included in FAIR internet version
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Brazilian Proposal
 distribute emission reductions Annex I based on regional
contribution to temperature increase due to their
historical emissions (from 1890)
 Global application with participation threshold (per
capita income levels, and/or per capita emissions)
 Our implementation => Brazilian Proposal approach
Policy choices (in FAIR 2.0 internet version ):
 Participation threshold
 Time frames:
 start-date (1765, 1890, 1950, 1990)
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Multi-Stage approach
Multi-stage Approach (RIVM):
a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their
level of commitment according to participation and
differentiation rules
Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy
Four stages (for non-Annex I):
Stage 1. No constraint
Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1)
Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2)
Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I)
Policy choices:
 Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions
 Stabilisation period
 Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita
emissions/income, etc.
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Multi-Stage approach
Gradual participation and different type of commitments
 Example for S550e:
–
–
–
–
threshold 1: 20% ’90 Annex I per capita income
threshold 2: 50% ‘90 Annex I per capita income
5-year stabilisation emissions
contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions
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Costs model of FAIR internet version
Global emission
profile
Global emission
profile
DATASETS
CLIMATE MODEL
Climate assessment
model
Historical
emissions
Global emission reduction objective
Baseline
scenario
Emissions
profile
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Multi-stage
approach
Per capita
Convergence
Brazilian
Proposal
emission intensity
system
Regional emissions targets
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
MACs
Mitigation costs &
Emissions trade
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Abatement costs & permit price
RIVM/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 14
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Abatement costs model
 Function:
1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas)
2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international
permit market
3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective
over the different regions, gases and sectors following
a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto
mechanisms.
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Methodology
on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves
(MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions;
MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is
no direct link to GDP losses
Assumption is made of international emission
trading: full trading in case regions participate;
limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
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Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq.
Example:
 S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e
(equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025)
 Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)
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Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e)
 Buyers and sellers on the market
 India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers
 Large differences costs
 Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to
2%)
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