Transcript Policy Portfolios

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change:
Models and Policy Analysis Framework
P.R. Shukla
Presentation Sequence
 Integrated Assessment
Model Concept
 Introduction to some IAMs
 Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
 MiniCAM
 Insights from Integrated Assessment
 Gaps for Developing Countries
Conceptual Framework
Policymaking
Process
Models and
Frameworks
Integrated Assessment
Meteorology
Ecology
Geophysics
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Economics
Policy sciences
pedology
GeochemistryClimatology
Hydraulics
Why Integrated Assessment?

To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret
and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge

To add value not to add knowledge

To present full range of outcomes of policies

As a crucial need of policy formulation
Why Integrated Assessment?

Framework for conducting research
ensuring consistency pointing to areas
where more information is required.

Insights from investigations in the
domains of the sub-components

IAMs as ‘forecasting tools’ and ‘heuristic
tools’
Developing country issues

Efficiency of mitigation

Structural changes in economy

Infrastructure requirements

Equity (Sharing of burden)

Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation
Integrated Assessment: Local issues

Policy formulation in local context requires
identification of critical threats.

Level of exposure to CC impacts.

Geography and economy affects vulnerability

Customization for local legal and policy frameworks.

Internalization of processes for effective
implementation

Framework to work as broad guideline with flexibility
to accommodate situation specific changes.
Limitations of Global IAMs
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Inability to characterize and parameterize long
term interactions between the economy, society,
and environment
Individual choice and co-evolution may make
socio-economic models inherently unpredictable
at the macro-level (Land and Schneider 1987)
Evaluating the reliability of the forecast
inevitably reduces to an evaluation of insights
(Risbey, Kandlikar, and Patwardhan 1996)
Policy Framework
CLIMATE RESPONSE
NATURAL SYSTEM
RESPONSE
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
AND GREEN HOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
SOCIO ECONOMIC
EFFECTS
EX POST ADAPTIVE
RESPONSES
GREEN HOUSE
GAS CONTROL
POLICIES
EX ANTE
ADAPTATION
Climate Change and Its Interaction with Natural, Economic
and Social Processes
Policy Options
Indirect Policy Options
Economy / Technology
Mitigation Options
Demand, Technology,
sources, efficiency
Emission Rates, Atmospheric
Concentration
Climate changes
Geological Factors and
Climate Change Impacts
POLICY RESPONSE
Passive Adaptation
Active Adaptation
Integrated Framework
Energy-Environment
Interface
Issues of Concern,
Environmental Stress
Future
Scenarios
Current Policies
Sectors of Economy
(Industry, Infrastructure,
Transport, etc.)
Integrated Assessment
Framework
Global - National
Case
Studies
National - Local
Long term – Short term
Emissions - Impacts
Policy - Implementation
POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION
Mitigation
Passive Adaptation
Indirect Options
Active Adaptation
AIM
Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
(Developed by NIES, Japan)
Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Structure
AIM/emission model
feedback
Change demands
Tech. changes
New technologies
Econ. Instruments
Adaptation
Scenarios
detection
and
reduction of
vulnerability
Country model
Land-use
Energy end-use
Global consistency & ROW model
Global economic trends
Population
Economic assumptions
Resource supplies
AIM/climate model
Global GHG cycle model
Global mean climate change model
supported
Reduction
Scenarios
Global and
Regional
Assumptions
Asian-Pacific regional model
GCM
Experiments
AIM/impact model
Global to regional scale down
Regional climate impacts
Water resources
Agriculture
Forest resources, etc.
Higher order impacts on
Regional economies
Asian-Pacific
Social,Economic
and
Environmental
GIS
AIM/ Emission Model Linkages
Socio-Economic Scenarios
Population
Resource Base
GDP
AIM/Emission-Linkage
Feedback
Endo Use
Energy
Efficiency
Bottom-up Model
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Technology
Change
Resource
Base
GDP
Population
Energy
Service
Demand
Social
Energy
Efficiency
Change
End Use
Technology
Efficiency
Lifestyle
Food
Consumption
Pattern
Exploitation
Technology
Energy
Resource
Energy Price
Final
Energy
Demand
Final
Energy
Supply
Population
Goods &
Service
Demand
Primary
Energy
Supply
Biomass
Energy
Energy
Conversion Demand
Technology
Efficiency
Energy-Economic Model
GHGs Emissions
AIM/ Climate Model
AIM/ Impact Model
Industrial
Production
GDP
Energy
Conversion
Technology
End Use
Technology
Industrial
Process
Change
Other
Inputs
Goods &
Service
Supply
Goods and
Service Price
Land Input
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Biomass Farm
Other Land
Land Equilibrium Model
Asia-Pacific Region
Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model
Energy
Energy Technology
- Oil
- Coal
- Gas
- Solar
- (Electricity)
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions
Energy Database
- Energy type
- Energy price
- Energy constraints
- CO2 emission factor
Energy Service
- Boiler
- Power generation
- Blast furnace
- Air conditioner
- Automobile
- Heating
- Lighting
- Steel products
- Cooling
- Transportation
Technology
Service Demand
Technology Database
- Technology price
- Energy consumption
- Service supplied
- Share
- Lifetime
Socio-economic Scenario
- Population Growth
- Economic Growth
- Industrial Structure
- Employees
- Lifestyle
Modeling Energy, Economy,
Technology and Climate Change
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT
MODELS AT BATTELLE
Two Modeling Systems
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PGCAM
MiniCAM
Climate System Models used
at Battelle-PNNL
MiniCAM
B. Atmos. Comp.
MAGICC
SCENGEN
A. Human Activity
ERB-AgLU
PGCAM
C.
Climate
MAGICC
SCENGEN
B. Atmos. Comp.
MAGICC
SCENGEN
C. Climate
MAGICC
SCENGEN
D. Ecosystems
A. Human Activity
D. Ecosystems
EPIC, HUMUS,
BIOME3
MERGE
SGM
MiniCAM
(Developed by PNNL, USA)
MiniCAM Overview
11 regions
 15-year time steps
(1990- 2095)
 Partial equilibrium
 Eight world markets

Energy Markets
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Carbon
Biomass
Grains and Oil Seeds
Animal Products
Forestry Products
Agricultural Markets
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT
MODEL COMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL
Atmospheric Chemistry
Climate
Ocean
· temperature
· sea level
Ocean Carbon
Cycle
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
ECOSYSTEMS
Energy
System
Other Human
Systems
Terrestrial
Carbon
Cycle
Un-managed
Eco-system
& Animals
Agriculture,
Livestock &
Forestry
Coastal
System
Crops &
Forestry
Hydrology
MiniCAM
An Integrated Modelling Framework
Atmospheric
Composition
MAGICC
Human Activities
ERB-AGLU
Climate & Sea
Level
SCENGEN
Ecosystems
AGLU & MERGE
MiniCAM
COMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL
MAGICC
Atmospheric Chemistry
MAGICC
Ocean Carbon
Cycle
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
MAGICC
Climate
MAGICC--Ocean
· temperature
· sea level
ECOSYSTEMS
ERB
Energy
System
ERB
Other Human
Systems
MAGICC
Terrestrial
Carbon Cyc.
Un-managed
Eco-system
& Animals
ALU
Ag., L'stock
& Forestry
(none)
Coastal
System
ALU
Crops &
Forestry
ALU
Hydrology
PGCAM
COMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL
MAGICC
Atmospheric Chemistry
MAGICC
Ocean Carbon
Cycle
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
MAGICC
Climate
MAGICC--Ocean
· temperature
· sea level
ECOSYSTEMS
SGM
Energy
System
SGM
Other Human
Systems
MAGICC
Terrestrial
Carbon Cyc.
Un-managed
Eco-system
& Animals
SGM
Ag., L'stock
& Forestry
(none)
Coastal
System
EPIC
Crops &
Forestry
HUMUS
Hydrology
ECONOMIC MODELING
All you really need to know you
learned in your Freshman
introductory course--Its just
supply and demand.
ECONOMIC MODELS
Supply
Demand
MiniCAM
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
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Energy-Agriculture-Economy
Market Equilibrium
14 Global Regions
15-year time steps
Multiple Greenhouse Gases
Internally Generated Demographics
Explicit Energy Technology
Land Resource Constraints
MiniCAM Energy Markets
Oil
Production
Biomass
Production
Liquids
Refining
Liquids
Market
Synfuel
Conversion
Solids Market
Solids
Coal
Production
Synfuel
Conversion
Natural Gas
Market
N. Gas
Production
Gas
Processing
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Market
Nuclear/Fusion
Hydro
Solar
Electric Power
Generation
Electricity
Market
MiniCAM Regions
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US
Canada
W. Europe
Australia & New
Zealand
Japan
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
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China
Mid-East
Africa
Latin America
Korea
Southeast Asia
India
Regional
Labor
Force
Regional
Labor
Productivity
Regional
GDP
Energy
Technologies
Regional
Prices
Regional
Resource
Constraints
Regional
Energy
Supply
Technologies
Regional
Energy
Supply
Regional
Fertility &
Survival
Rates
Regional
Energy
Demand
MiniCAM Energy Sector
World
Prices and
Quantities
GHG
Emissions
MiniCAM Energy Markets
Liquids
Market
Residential
Sector
Residential
Technologies
Commercial
Sector
Commercial
Technologies
Industrial
Sector
Industrial
Technologies
Transport
Sector
Transport
Technologies
Solids Market
Natural Gas
Market
Hydrogen
Market
Electricity
Market
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
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Many different technologies-Modeled simply.
Median Price of service =
(fuel price)/(fuel efficiency) +
(levelized non-energy costs per unit service)
TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYMENT
A Probabilistic Approach
Market Price
Median Cost
Technology 2
`
TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION
A Probabilistic Approach
Market Price
Median Cost
Technology 1
Median Cost
Technology 2
`
Median Cost
Technology 3
Why an Ag. / Land-Use Module?
 Energy
emissions are not the whole story.
Carbon emissions from land-use change
Carbon mitigation using biomass fuels
N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture
 Climate
policy suggests that we not view the
energy system in isolation.
Climate impacts relative to carbon mitigation
Energy and agricultural systems linked through
biomass fuels
AgLU Model Structure
Supply
Demand
Local
Taxes &
Subsidies
Climate
Technology
Biomass
Price
Solution Mechanism
Supply of Crops,
Livestock,
Biomass Energy, &
Forest Products
Land Use
Emissions
Local
Price
World
Market
Population
Income
Demand for Crops,
Livestock, &
Forest Products
The Agriculture-Land-Use Module
Water Submodule
Water Demands
hydro-elec.,
recreation, urban,
navigation,
mandated, other
Irrigated
Crops Supply
Solution Module
Local
Taxes,
Tariffs, &
Subsidies
Hydrology
ground & surface
water
Agriculture Demand Submodule
Population
Demand for
Crops, Livestock,
& Forest
Products
Local Price
Income
Energy System
Model
(Provides Biomass
energy price, takes
biomass output)
Climate
Temparature, &
Precipitation
World Price
Fertilizer
Technology
Supply of Crops,
Livestock,
Biomass
Energy& Forest
Products
World Market
Land Use
Emissions
CO2
Concentration
Agriculture Supply Submodule
Indicates that model component is not implemented in MiniCAM 2.0.
Emissions Submodule
Links from ICLIPS to AgLU
F
AgLU
F
ERB
Land-Use Change C Emissions
Population
CH4 Emissions from Agriculture
GDP
N20 Emissions from Agriculture
Carbon Price
Global Land Use
IS92a with no Climate Feedback
14
12
Other
billion hectares
10
8
Forest
6
Biomass
4
Pasture
2
Cropland
0
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE
Concentrations matter, not emissions.
EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE
800
16
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
14
12
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
750
700
650
10
ppmv
6
550
500
4
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
2115
2090
2065
2040
2015
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
300
2115
-2
2090
350
2065
0
2040
400
2015
2
1990
450
1990
PgC/yr
600
8
Technology, Energy & Climate
Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year
25,000
20,000
15,000
soil carbon sequestration
sequestration from fossil power generation
sequestration from synfuels production
sequestration from H2 production
end-use technology improvements
nuclear
solar
biomass
550 ppmv emissions
10,000
5,000
0
1990 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095