Transcript Introduction - University of Michigan

Turkey
Link to syllabus
Link to WDI
Link to Encyclopedia of the Orient
Orhan Pamuk and Sevket Pamuk
Link to text version
Link to Orhan Pamuk
Link to Turkey Chronology
Link to Map of Ottoman Empire
Via Encyclopedia of the Orient
Ottoman Empire under Suleiman the Magnificent, 1580
Turkey: Major
Cities
Istanbul and Surrounding Areas
Turkey
Physical
Map+
Population Density
Turkey after the Treaty of Sevres (1920)
Number of Industrial Establishments in Izmir
(Smyrna) by Nationality of Ownership, 1920
Turkish
1,216
British
13
Greek
4,002
French
&Belgian
10
Armenian
28
German &
Austrian
8
Jewish
21
American
2
Source: Keyder, in Quataert (1994) Manufacturing in the Ottoman Empire and Turkey, 1500-1950
View of the Bosphorus, and Dolmabache Palace
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 165
A Street in Istanbul, ~1870
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 164
Knife Sharpener,
Istanbul ~1865
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the
Ottoman Empire page 181
Egg Seller, Istanbul
~1865
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman
Empire page 99
Palanquin, Istanbul ~1860
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 184
Haci Bekir-store selling “Turkish Delight” Istanbul ~1890
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 98
Ritual Ablution at the Suleymaniye Mosque, ~1900
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 178
Istanbul: Galata Bridge 1890
Source: Cizgen, Photography in the Ottoman Empire page 19
Abdulhammid II
1842-1918
Ruled 1876-1909
Started out as a reformer, but
grew more opposed to change.
Described as an autocrat who
seldom left the palace.
Approved a Constitution in
1877, suspended it in 1878.
Sultan who was forced
from office by the “Young
Turks.”
Mustafa Kamal
Atatürk
1881-1938. Born in area now called Greece
Family was middle class; father was a
timber merchant.
Went to military schools. Vital role against
British in Gallipoli campaign.
1920 sets up government in Ankara. By
1926 he has abolished rivals.
1934 National Assembly bestows on him
title of Ataturk (Father of the Turks)
Late 1930s strengthens ties to Britain and
France, against Germany and Italy.
After his death, Ismet Inonu becomes pres.,
until 1950.
Mustafa Kamal Atatürk
Atatürk’s Program
Regulations that hindered the use of central elements
in the Oriental (i.e. non-European) clothing style,
Introduction of Latin alphabet,
Reduction of the centrality of Islam in Turkish public life,
Equality of all citizens regardless of religion,
Emancipation of women and mass education
The political system had elements from Western democracy
but it was essentially a one-party system.
Intended characteristics of the new Turkey:
•Republicanism
•Nationalism
•Populism
•Statism (State control over the basic means of production
where the banks were used as the administrative body
•Secularism
•Revolutionism
Atatürk’s legacy
Military and Politics
Military was guarantor of the unity of the country in the 1920s under
Ataturk, and continues to support his nationalist, etatist, secular program
The military is not viewed as excessively enriching itself in the role of
ultimate guarantor, as indicated by public support of its actions.
Military coups in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997. That of 1960 led to the
death of the Prime Minister (Menderes). In 1980 there was political
unrest due to economic problems, ineffective political parties. In 1997
the action was taken against Erbakan, deemed to be too Islamic.
Suleyman Demirel
Born: 1924, into a peasant family.
P.M. 1965-1971, late 1970s, 1991-2
President 1993 - 2000
Studied engineering.
Supported NATO but opposed EU.
Forced to resign by military, who
were worried about terrorism.
Turgut Ozal
1927-1993
P.M. 1983-89
President 1989-93
Father was teacher of Islam.
Studied mechanical engin.,
worked at World Bank
Protégé of Demirel
Pushed for opening up and
westernizing the economy.
However, there was much
inflation and unemployment
Tansu Ciller
Born 1946
P.M. 1993-1996
Ph.D. from U. of Conneticut,
where she worked as a
researcher.
Driven out of office over
questions of corruption
Necmettin Erbakan
Born: 1926
P.M. 1996-97
Professor of Physics, who
lived and studied in Germany
for many years.
Leader of Welfare Party.
Sometimes described as an
Islamist and a populist.
Was forced to resign by
pressure from military.
Supports entry into EU.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Born: 1954
P.M. March 2003-
Born in a town in northern Turkey
into a lower middle class family.
Previously mayor of Istanbul,
where he had a reputation for
honesty. Knows no foreign
language, and little economics.
1998: convicted of inciting
religious hatred; his acceptability
as P.M. was not guaranteed.
Said to be charismatic leader.
Pushing for entrance to EU.
Abdullah Gul, 1950Born in central Turkey to
working class parents.
Studied at Istanbul U.
Has worked in U.K.,
speaks decent English.
Currently President, and
worries many secularists.
Has been Foreign Minister and Prime Minister. Takes secondary role to
Erdogan in the AKP.
Click for interview on EuroNews July, 2006
Alcohol ban
Source : Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Report: October 4, 2009.
Other Economic Items
Most of Turkey’s exports are manufactured goods
Large numbers of Turks migrated to Germany and other western
European countries as guest workers.
Custom’s Union with European Union in 1995
Free Trade Agreement with Israel in 1996.
Limited FTA’s with Morocco and Syria in 2004.
Turkey is major intermediary for trade in hydrocarbons.
Distribution of Kurdish People
Abdullah Ocalan
Born around 1950, to a
peasant family in a small
village in southern Turkey.
Studied political science
at Ankara U. Founder of
Kurdish Workers’ Party,
PKK. Captured by Turkish
Intelligence (in Kenya) in
1999.
Death sentence
commuted to life.
The PKK is blamed for
~30,000 deaths since
early 1980s.
Kurdish language in Turkey
In Turkey in 1938, Kurdish was banned; any public usage was
sanctioned and an individual using Kurdish in public could be
fined. During this time Kurdish lost ground, bilingualism
increased, and very few learned to read or write their
language. In 1961, with a new Turkish constitution, Kurdish
publications began to appear, often bilingual, but frequently
banned as soon as they appeared. Moreover, since 1967
through the late 80s there was a hardening of attitude and a
series of laws were promulgated which are intended to
repress the use of Kurdish. In 1991, however, the Turkish
government declared its intention to legalize the use of
Kurdish, and this happened, gradually. Kurds in Turkey who
no longer speak their language nevertheless symbolically
regard it as proof of their ethnic identity.
Source: http://www.lmp.ucla.edu/profiles/profk04.htm
Turkey: Real GDP/capita
Turkey
Real GDP/capita
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
log Real GDP/Capita
Turkey
10000
1000
100
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year
1970
1980
1990
2000
Turkey:Growth
GrowthRate
of Real
GDP/Capita
Turkey:
of Real
GDP/Capita
15
10
Percentage
5
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
-5
-10
-15
Year
1970
1980
1990
2000
Turkey: Real Wages, 1914=100
Turkey: Real Wages, 1850-1990
Log Real Wages
1000
100
10
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
Year
Source: Pamuk 1995 “Long term trends in urban wages
in Turkey, 1850-1990,” in Schulliers and Zamagni
2000
Turkey: Income Distribution
Source: Hansen, page 276
Turkey: Distribution of Land Holdings
Source: Hansen page 278
Turkey: Terms of Trade:
Source: Hansen (1991)
Turkey: Income levels, by region
Source: Hansen page 277
Turkey: Regional GDP/Cap, 1987
Source: Senesen in The Ravages of Neo-Liberalism, page 122
Turkey: Regional GDP/Cap, 1996
Source: Senesen in The Ravages of Neo-Liberalism, page 122
Turkey: Regional Schooling Ratios, 1990
Regions
Primary
Middle
Marmara
Aegean
Mediterranean
Central Anatolia
Black Sea
Eastern Anatolia
Southeastern Anatolia
98
89
89
89
86
76
75
57
43
39
46
33
27
21
High
School
25
21
21
23
17
17
14
National Average
87
40
20
Source: Gök in Balkan and Savran The Ravages of Neo Liberalism page. 96
Turkey: Inflation
Turkey
120
100
Inflation
80
60
40
20
0
-201920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
Turkey:
Inflation
andCauses
its
Turkey
Inflation and
its Proximate
Proximate Causes
150
125
Budget Deficit/GDP
(%)
Deficit/M2 lagged one
year
100
75
50
Money (M2) growth
rate
25
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Inflation, consumer
prices (annual %)
Turkey: RERs. From Central Bank of Turkey
Turkey:
Inflation
during 2004
Annual CPI and Target
2002 2003 2004 2005
Target
35
20
12
8
Realized 30
18
9
?
Central Bank of Turkey
Privatization in Turkey, to Foreigners, 1989-2002
Also, more telecom, banks, airlines, tourism, iron and steel.
Total =US$ 10 billion
Source: http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN018677.pdf
Europeans Not Keen on Turkey’s EU Bid
September 09, 2008
2008 Polling Data
Do you personally favour or oppose Turkey’s accession into the European
Favour
Oppose
France
Germany
20%
24%
80%
76%
Belgium
Netherlands
Britain
32%
33%
43%
68%
67%
57%
Italy
Spain
44%
49%
56%
51%
Source: Angus Reid Polling
Turkey: Population Growth Rate
Percent
Turkey: Population Growth Rate
3
2
1
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Children/Wom
an
Turkey: Fertility
Fertility
Turkey:
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Turkey:
Turkey:Infant
InfantMortality
Mortality
Rate per thousand
200
150
100
Infant Mortality
50
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Percentage
Turkey: Illiteracy Rates
Turkey:
Illiteracy Rates
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
Illiteracy rate, adult
total (% of people
ages 15 and above)
Illiteracy rate, youth
total (% of people
ages 15-24)
1980
1990
Year
2000
Turkey: Primary Ed
Turkey: Primary Education
100
Percentage
98
Persistence to grade
5, total (% of cohort)
96
94
Primary completion
rate, total (% of
relevant age group)
92
90
88
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
Turkey:
Debt Debt
Service
Ratios
Turkey:
Ratios
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
1970
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Total debt service (%
of exports of goods
and services)
Total debt service (%
of GNI)
Turkey:
Land Use
Turkey: Land Use
30000000
Hectares
25000000
Land use, arable land
(hectares)
20000000
15000000
Land use, irrigated
land (hectares)
10000000
5000000
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Turkey: Agricultural GDP
Turkey: Agricultural GDP
Log Ag Output
1E+11
10000000000
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Gov't/GDP
Turkey: G/GDP
Turkey:
G/GDP
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Turkey:
Turkey: Defense
Defense
25
Military expenditure
(% of central
government
expenditure)
Percentage
20
15
Military expenditure
(% of GDP)
10
5
0
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
Turkey: Foreign Aid
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1960
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Aid per capita ($)
Aid/GNI
Turkey: Foreign Aid
Aid (% of GNI)
Aid per capita
(current US$)
Ottoman Empire, 1300-1683
Ottoman Empire
1798-1923
Ottoman Empire
Map of 19th Century Middle East
Map of MENA
Turkey: Two Estimates of Real Exchange Rates, 1995-2004
160
CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate (1995=100)
150
WPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate (1995=100)
140
130
120
110
100
Source: Central Bank of Turkey
May-04
Jan-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-02
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-01
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-00
Sep-99
May-99
Jan-99
Sep-98
May-98
Jan-98
Sep-97
May-97
Jan-97
Sep-96
May-96
Jan-96
Sep-95
May-95
80
Jan-95
90
Articles on Turkey and the IMF
Tough love for Turkey Brett D Schaefer. The International Economy.
Washington: May/Jun 2001.Vol.15, Iss. 3
The Turkish economic crisis is the first international economic
challenge to confront the Bush administration. Turkey plays a pivotal
role in advancing US policy goals in the Middle East, Europe and
Eurasia. America therefore cannot neglect Turkey and should help it
achieve economic stability.
TALKING TURKEY: Despite Its Problems, Turkish Military May
Save Yilmaz Government to Thwart Islamist Victory Dorsey, James M.
The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs. Washington:
Sep 30, 1998.Vol.XVII, Iss. 6; pg. 51
Against all odds, [Mesut Yilmaz] has persuaded Turkish business and
finance circles -- accustomed to living with an annual inflation rate of 80
to 100 percent -- as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that
he can reduce inflation to 20 percent by the end of next year. With no
guarantee that he will remain in office that long and the specter of election
Kenan Evren
1918President 1982-89
General who came to power in
1980, and won election in 1982
Bulent Ecevit
Born:1925 in Istanbul
P.M. 1974, 1978-80, 1998-2002
Born into an intellectual family,
Schooled in Istanbul, Britain and U.S.
Described as a nationalist hostile to
Kurds. Invaded northern Cyprus.