Transcript Title Arial 44pt

Guoyi Han
Geographer, Hazard, Risk, Disasters, Human
dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Research Fellow
Director of China Initiative
Stockholm Environment Institute
Stockholm
Environment
Institute
Bridging science and policy

CLIMATE
CHANGE


•
Non-profit, independent, international
research institute
Established in 1989 by the Swedish
government
Supports decision-making in the field of
sustainable development

Six centers around the world

http://www.sei-international.org/
Theme 2: Reducing climate risk
Theme 3: Transforming governance
Theme 1: Managing environmental systems
Theme 4: Rethinking development
China Initiative at SEI
what do we do?
China Puzzle
• Economic miracle and Environmental disaster
• Hungary Dragon and Consumption
• The Speed and Scale:
– Decades vs. centuries: multiple, simultaneous transitions
– The "scale and scope of pollution far outpaces what occurred in
the United States and Europe”
• The climate change
– “ elephant in the bed room” or “ incubator for solutions”
• The uncertain future
Making Sense of the Perplexed
•
•
•
China today is in the midst of multiple transitions
– From a traditional agrarian society to an industrial nation
– From rural to urban
– From a planning to a market based economy
– Along with it, the reform of the financial system, the social welfare system,
education, medical care, etc, etc.
Those transitions are critical for that, depending the paths chosen, they bring
both opportunities and risks, and the results have profound implications for
China as well as to the world in large. Managing any one of those transitions is
an enough challenge, but China will have to deal with the intricate interlinkages of the multiple transitions simultaneously.
Even more so, given that
– those transitions happen in a stunning speed at a massive scale;
– those transitions happen in a world of climate change and globalization
"China watching is the only profession that
makes meteorology look accurate and precise."
Nicholas Kristof, former Beijing Bureau Chief, The New York Times
China’s development and
global impacts
Lecture for
Environment, Development and Globalization
CEMUS Education/Uppsala Centre for Sustainable
Development • Fall Semester 2013
Guoyi Han, Research Fellow
China’s economic miracle
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
In 1978,
In 2001,
In 2003,
In 2005,
…,
In 2010,
In 2018,
In 2050,
China started the “Open and Reform”
China entered WTO
China passed UK
China passed France
China passed Germany
China passed Japan
China will surpass the U.S.
Chinese economy would be twice the size
of the U.S., and contributing to more than
one third of the world GDP…
Contribution to the world total GDP
30.00%
27.50%
U.S
China
25.00%
21.60%
23.10%
21.40%
20.60%
20.00%
17.30%
15.10%
15.00%
10.00%
7.80%
5.20%
4.90%
5.00%
0.00%
1952
1978
1990
2003
2030
Data source: Angus Madison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run: 960-2030 AD, OECD publication, 2007
China’s ranks in the world on major
development indicators
1978
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2030
GDP (exchange rate)
10
(1.75)
11
(1.64)
6
(3.75)
4
(4.94)
2
(9.5)
2
(13)
2
(19)
1
GDP (PPP)
4
(4.9)
3
(7.8)
2
(11.8)
2
(16.2)
2
(18)
1
(20)
1
(24)
1
Merchandise export
29
(0.76)
15
(1.80)
8
(3.86)
3
(7.26)
1
(10.4)
1
(13)
1
(20)
1
38
7
2
2
1
1
1
1
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
Foreign reserve
Science and technology
power
Source: Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, Tsinghua University
At the same time,
• China became the ‘world factory’, ‘workshop of
the world’
• China became the world largest CO2 emitter;
and dominating the new increase of the global
GHG emission
• China became the world largest energy
consumer
• The ‘Hungary Dragon’ – China’s thirst for
resources of all kinds
• …
So what?
• What does this mean, for China and globally?
• It is not a question about the rise of China, it is
about the changing global economic and political
power pattern – the geopolitical dynamics of the
new century.
• China’s global role is critical -- Many go as far as
arguing the future of the world will largely
depending on where China is going…
In this lecture,
We will looked at this from
economic, social, environment
/resources, political/international
relation lenses
Chinese Economy
‘Open Reform’- the Chinese Economic
Miracle
• How did it all started?
• The 30+ years remarkable economic growth
• A successful yet profoundly unsustainable model
“unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, unsustainable”
• Chinese economy in transfromation – ambition
of the 12th FYP
China in the global economy
Gross Domestic Product Shares World Total, Four Major Powers, 1–2030
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1
1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1973 1980 1990 2000 2003 2030
China
United States
Western Europe
Japan
Source: Angus Madison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP, and per Capita GDP, 1–2003 AD” (www.ggdc.net/maddison/); Angus Madison,
Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960–2030 AD (Paris: OECD, 2007). (Slide, courtesy of Professor Hu Angang)
GDP STRUCTURE
100%
Urban informal
80%
城镇非正规增加
值
60%
城镇正规增加值
Urban formal
乡镇企业增加值
估算
40%
农业增加值
TVEs
20%
Agriculture
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
0%
The immediate challenges to the
Chinese economy
(Two mostly internal and one mostly external)
• The middle income trap (or the ‘reform trap”)
• The ‘Lewis turning point’
• The changing external demand
The middle income trap
• What is that?
• Will China be the same as others?
• Or, is it really the “reform trap” or ‘transition trap”
– “enjoying touching the stone and no longer wanting to
cross the river”
The ‘Lewis Turning Point’
• What is it?
– a point in the economic development when no more
labor is forthcoming from the underdeveloped, or
agricultural, sector and wages begin to rise
• China’s demographic transition – overly on the
economic transition
• Increasing labor cost and implications
The changing external demand
• China’s export-dependent economy
• The financial crisis
The dilemma for the Chinese
government
• Investment
– Side effects of the stimulus package
• Export
– Weak global recovery
• Domestic Consumption
– When?
Consumption driven economy?
The dilemma for the global
environment
When A Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will
Save Mankind -- Or Destroy It
Environment and Resources
LAND AND PEOPLE
How Many is 1,320 million?
Europe
730 million
North America
329 million
South America (70%)
261 million
Total
1,320 million
China Cluster
•China covers almost 10 million sq km (same as
US or Europe to the Urals)
•climate and topography extremes
•mean elevation of 1500 m (2x the world avg)
•115 million people or 10% of the population
occupy just 50,000 sq km or 0.5% of the land
area
•half of the 1.3 billion people occupy only 1/10th
of the land area
•high population pressure on scarce resources
Arid and Semi-Arid: 52％
Loss Plateau 640, 000km2
Tibet-Qinghai
Plateau 2M km2
Karst 900,000 km2
China Cluster
Fact sheets of China
• Huge Population: 1.3—1.4 billion
• GDP Per Capita: USD 2500-3000 (2010)
• Resource Per Capita: water ¼ of WL, arable land
1/7
• Coal-dominant energy structure 60-70%
• 30 million people in poverty
• Economic disparity
• …
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE
Escalating environmental and recourse
constraints
• ‘Poor endowment’
• Environmental price/cost
• Resource scarcity
Environmental cost
• Pollution
– Water
– Land/soil
– Air
• Ecosystem destruction
– Desertification
– Social erosion
– Ecosystem services.
• Environmental and health cost (4 to 12% GDP)
Resources Scarcity
• Water
• Energy
• Minerals (big commodity price and that have
been so tight to China’s demand in the past
twenty or so years…
Environment and development
• What is same:
– The pattern (e.g., UK, London smog 1950s
– The relationship
– Mostly also the process
• What is different:
– The scale
– The speed
– In the ‘Anthropocene’
• Globalization
• ‘resource-saturated’
• Climate change
The air quality situation
• In January, PM2.5 readings in Beijing surged to
a record 993 micrograms per cubic meter. The
WHO recommends day-long exposure of no
higher than 25. The average concentration of
PM2.5 particles in 74 cities monitored by China’s
Ministry of Environmental Protection was 76
micrograms in the first half.
Beijing, China
Pittsburgh in the 1940s-1950s
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-chokingclouds-smog.html
The Great Smog of London in the 1952: more than 4000 people died
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/countryside/9727128/The-Great-Smog-of-London-the-air-was-thick-with-apathy.html
'Hell,” wrote Shelley, “is a city much like
London – / A populous and a smoky city”.
Action Plan to Tackle Air Pollution
•
•
•
•
On September 12, China’s State Council released an action plan to tackle air pollution
aiming to improve air quality, slash coal consumption, and accelerate removal of outdated
capacity in selected industries.
The plan specified that the respirable particulate matter (PM10) levels (micrograms per
cubic meter) in prefecture-level and above Chinese cities will be reduced by over 10
percent by 2017 from the 2012 levels, with the number of good air quality days on the
increase. By 2017, the PM2.5 levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River
delta, and Pearl River delta will decrease by 25 percent, 20 percent, and 15 percent
respectively; the annual average PM2.5 level in Beijing is anticipated to be controlled at
around 60 micrograms per cubic meter by then.
China also aimed to cut coal consumption to below 65 percent of total primary energy use
by 2017, down from 66.8 percent last year. In addition, the share of non-fossil fuel energy
in total energy consumption will be raised to 13 percent by 2017, up from 11.4 percent in
2012. To help meet the target, China would also raise nuclear power installed capacity to
50 GW by 2017, up from 12.5 GW at present.
More efforts will be made to speed up the removal of outdated and polluting industrial
capacity, to complete relocation of plants in coastal areas, as well as to tackle pollution and
overcapacity in key sectors by 2017. Meanwhile, the nation will halt construction of all
unapproved projects in industries facing overcapacity and speed up the implementation of
new automobile fuel standards. Furthermore, China will stop approving new thermal power
plants in key industrial areas and strictly control new capacity in high-polluting and highenergy-consuming industries.
Dilemma for China
• Development stage
• Maintaining economic growth
• Energy endowment and security
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011
Source: World Bank
Climate change as example…
• China has less room for mistakes
than the now rich countries had in the
course of their development
• China has to do what no one has
done before, i.e., to modernize with a
low carbon pathway
• And to do it quick enough!
Climate change
CO2 emissions by six major economies in the total of the world
China
EU
US
Japan
Russia
India
Total
EU/China
US/China
1960
8.98
15.87
33.68
2.47
1970
5.65
15.09
31.18
4.96
1980
8.08
13.59
25.32
4.71
1990
11.29
10.96
22.67
4.76
2008
22.4
13.0
19.0
1.28
1.30
1.79
3.01
4.5
1.77
3.75
2.67
5.52
1.68
3.13
0.97
2.01
0.58
0.85
2015
25.34
11.77
19.76
3.79
5.28
5.28
71.23
0.46
0.78
2030
27.32
9.97
16.44
2.82
4.71
7.88
69.14
0.36
0.60
Note: a. 1992 figures.
Sources: 1960-1990 data from the World Bank, World Development Indicator 2006, CD-ROM; Taking EU as having 11 countries. 20082030 data from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010,IEA；reference scenario (According to the current state, without relevant policy for
controlling emissions); Taking EU as having 25 countries.
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Climate change
• Chinese government has released its 2020 carbon emission
reduction target in 2009, which plans to reduce carbon intensity at
40-45% comparing with 2005. Is this an ambitious target, or only a
business as usual plan?
Scenario projections on carbon emission reduction under different economic growth rate
CO2 emission at 2020 (billion tons)
Economic
growth rate (%)
Reduction by 40%
Reduction by 45%
8
10.89
9.99
9
12.06
11.05
10
13.33
12.22
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Climate change
• Various carbon emission reduction scenarios
160
140
Business as usual
120
100 million tons
100
80
Peak in 2030
60
40
20
0
1980
Peak in 2020
1990
2000
2010
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
Unit: Billion tons
2020 2030 2050
2010-2020
accumulation
2010-2030
accumulation
2010-2050
accumulation
Business as
usual
10.0
12.0
15.0
92.1 (1.14)
203.1 (1.4)
474.6 (2.32)
Peak in 2030
9.0
10.0
8.0
86.6 (1.07)
182.1 (1.26)
361.1 (1.76)
Peak in 2020
8.0
5.0
1.2
81.1 (1.0)
144.6 (1.0)
204.7 (1.0)
CO2 emission at 2020 (billion tons)
Economic
growth rate (%)
Reduction by 40%
Reduction by 45%
8
10.89
9.99
9
12.06
11.05
10
13.33
12.22
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
China’s energy intensity per million $ output
(tec)
China’s share of global CO2
emission
800
tec
19%
1990
390
tec
30%
300
tec
2009
173
tec
Accumulation of CO2 emission
CHINA:
1990 to 2050
WORLD:
1700 to 1970
500
GT
Unfortunate timing
TIME
18th
Century
1950s
2013
CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere
280 ppm
315ppm
400ppm
Countries
industrialized
UK
Japan
China +
emerging
economies
Social Challenges
Growing Social Tensions
• Inequality and injustice
• Corruption, distrust, and resentment
• Moral decay
Inequality
• Distribution
• The process
• “internalization” – if you are the son of … then …
Corruption, distrust, resentment
• Systemizing corruption
• Erosion of trust
– The “salt crisis” example
• ‘Resentment’ dominates the social emotion
– Food safety
– “high profile stories: Yao Jiaxin, Li Gang, Li Shuang
jiang’s son etc etc
Moral Decay
• The horror stories
– The Yao Jaxin case
• “Consumerism is the king”
– “you don’t need to say ‘thank you’…”
• Social norms
– “assuming guilty first…”
Civil society and growing middle
class
• Rise in the influence of think tanks, lawyers,
NGOs and interest groups. Media organizations,
microblogging are increasingly powerful.
• The growing middle class
– The number
– Defining indetity
Political and international relations
Political/international relation
• China’s political change
• ‘Going out’ ‘ Going global’ strategy
• Rising super power and global image
• Both China and the world are yet to learn how to
cope with the changing role of China
Political change
• Intra-party democratization or in-fight?
• ‘Elite power’
• The new leadership
• Shift in international experience
Watching out, the Chinese is coming!
• ‘The hungry dragon’
• China in Africa
• The Chinese Consumer
– ‘Beijing pound” in London
Rising power and global image
• ‘Peaceful rise’ and ‘homonymous world’
• ‘tao guang yang hui’ (“not to show off one’s
capability but to keep a low profile )(lay low and
build your strength)
• Building soft power
– The Confucius School
• ‘Learning by doing’ –adapting to the new role
– ‘looking for chair’ syndrome
– ‘man in a boy’s cloth’
Setting the ‘China Story’ into historical
global context
• The heaps of characterization of a ‘China Model’
• The interest and attraction for other countries
• The value of thinking of China’s future
The question is, how unique is the ‘China
story’ ? Is there a unique and magic
‘China Model’ that can lead the way for
the rest of the developing countries?
Economy: Government and market
• What is the same:
– The challenge: the answered question
–…
• What is different:
– China’s sprit of ‘experiment’
– What kind of capitalism? – State capitalism,
Bureaucratic capitalism,
– ....
Social cultural modernization
• What is same
– Cultural transition – cultural clashes
– Materialist world view – the middle class want the
extract same thing as those who got rich before them
– ..
• What is different:
– Information age (internet, social media…)
– The ‘one-child’ policy – the biggest social experiment
ever in the human history
–
Environment and development
• The changes in China over the past thirty years,
as one seasoned China reporter put it, are like
“watching 200-odd years of industrial
development playing at fast forward on a
continent-wide screen with a cast of more than a
billion” (J. Watts 2012, =guardian.co.uk, Monday
18 June 2012 20.30)
• “mix of communist politics and capitalist
economics appeared to have created a system
designed to exploit people and the environment
like never before”.
The world need a new solution…
• “Developed nations have been outsourcing their
environmental stress to other countries and future
generations for more than two centuries. China is trying
to do the same as it looks overseas for food, fuel and
minerals to satisfy the rising demand of its cities and
factories. This has been extremely good news for
economies in Africa, Mongolia, Australia and South
America. I sympathise with China. It is doing what
imperial, dominant powers have done for more than two
centuries, but it is harder for China because the planet is
running short of land and time.”
China’s Future
China in 2020: a vision by Prof. Hu Angang
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•
•
•
•
•
•
Comparing with 1978, China will grow 87.4 times in GDP, and 62.5
times in GDP per capita. China will create 50 years economic growth
gold age, and complete transformation from extremely low income to
low income, then to middle income and high income
China is experiencing world’s largest urbanization, from 172 million
urban population to over 1 billion urban population, and also mobilize
huge rural labors
Population with college and above education will grow from 4 million
to 300 million, and average educational year will increase from 4
years to 11 years
Full time scientists and engineers in R&D will be 3 million and 4.5
million in 2020 and 2030 respectively
Life expectancy in China will increase from 67 years to 78.5 or even
80 years
HDI in China will increase from 0.55 to 0.95
China has alleviated world’s largest poverty population
The only certainty about China’s Future is
uncertainty.
But, either way, it matters a great
deal not only for China but also the
world.
Some other reflections on the
global impacts of the rise of China
• It is not just about China, it is the rise of
the developing countries
• Reshaping the notion of modernity
• State competence and democracy
• Government and market (e.g., what kind of
capitalism? Or is it capitalism?
To end with a joke
•
•
•
•
in 1949 only socialism could save China;
in 1979 only capitalism could save China;
in 1989 only China could save socialism;
in 2009 only China could save capitalism.
Walking the Delicate
BALANCE