Transcript Evolution and trends for the duty free & travel retail

Evolution and trends
for the duty free & travel retail industry
—————
Alain Maingreaud
Managing Director, TFWA
Introduction to TFWA
———
The world today: from west to east
———
Global trends in travel & aviation
———
TFWA experience
& sentiments for the industry
Introduction
to TFWA
———
Mission
———
“to enable and empower
the Duty Free and Travel Retail
industry by providing
the opportunities and the tools
for brand and market growth.”
TFWA World Exhibition
over 5,600 visitors
———
TFWA ASIA PACIFIC & GATE ONE2ONE
2,000 visitors
200 exhibitors
1,500 brands
———
Conferences & Workshops
The world today
from west to east
———
“Bank of England forecasts
'choppy' economic recovery”
BBC News, 11 August 2010
“Joy, pain and double dips”
The Economist, 12 August 2010
“Hello America. China's
economy overtakes Japan's
in real terms”
The Economist, 16 August 2010
E7 to Catch G7 by 2019?
E7 = China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey
Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
60000
Convergence
Catch-up
Overtaking
40000
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
30000
20000
10000
0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)
50000
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
Emerging retail markets
———
“…reliance on developing countries
for future growth is no longer a ‘niceto-have,’ but is a necessity.”
Source: AT Kearney, ‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2009
Emerging retail markets
Source: AT Kearney,
‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2010
Global trends
in travel & aviation
———
“Multi-spend recovery kick
started by developing
economies”
Euromonitor International
“Asian Markets Adding
Business Travel Spend at
Four Times the U.S. Rate”
National Business Travel Association
Global business travel spend
% Change
2009 - 2010
United States
% Change
2010-2014
2.5 %
2.4 %
16.3 %
6.7 %
12.3 %
2.1 %
United Kingdom
-0.6 %
8.2 %
France
-1.0 %
4.7 %
Italy
-2.6 %
4.1 %
Germany
-1.0 %
3.8 %
Brazil
21.2 %
19.8 %
7.2 %
3.5 %
Spain
-4.0 %
4.2 %
China
Japan
South Korea
Source: NBTA , August 2010
“Asia Pacific takes top spot as
traffic recovers strongly in 2010.
North America slides to third”
Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
Comparative passenger numbers by region
June 2010 vs June 2008 (year-to-date)
Region
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
World
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & ACI
% change YTD
June 2008 > June 2010
+ 11.5%
- 7.3%
- 7.7%
+ 6.9%
+ 1.8%
+ 18.4%
- 0.7%
Premium traffic growth by ticket type:
Jan-2007 to Jun-2010
(year on year % change)
Source: IATA
Strong growth
in Latin America premium travel
Source: IATA
TFWA experience
& sentiments
for the industry
———
“Cautiously optimistic”
IATA
Optimistic, with reason
Asia :
Middle East :
+ 88 %
+ 112 %
The global industry in 2009
NAM: - 8%
LAC: - 0,5% *
Source: Generation
* ACI 2009 figures
Year to date in Latin America
Region
% change 1H 2010
vs 1H 2009
Americas
+ 22,4%
Latin America
North America
+ 28%
+ 16%
World
+ 16.1%
Source: Generation
Year to date in Latin America
Region
Latin America
Asia Pacific
Middle east
Africa
North America
Europe
World
Source: Generation
% change 1H
2010 vs 1H 2009
+ 28%
+ 26.3%
+ 18.4%
+ 13.6%
+ 16%
+ 4.4%
+ 16.1%
The future as we see it…
Thank you
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +33 140 740 986