Transcript Managing bad weather – making greater use and better sense of

High-Level Advocacy Forum on Statistics:
The Urgency of Statistics and the Global
Enabling Development in the Caribbean Community
30 July, 2009, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Managing bad weather – making greater
use and better sense of statistics
Gerald Haberkorn
Manager, Statistics and Demography Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Noumea, New Caledonia
(www.spc.int/sdp)
Structure of Presentation
1. Introduction: Pacific community
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
3. How can we contribute to help make greater use
and better sense of statistics?
4. Concluding remarks
SPC Member countries and territories
CNMI
Guam
Palau
Marshall Islands
Federated States
of Micronesia
Papua New
Guinea
Nauru
Kiribati
Solomon
Islands
Tuvalu
Tokelau
Cook
Wallis et Samoa
Islands
Futuna
Am
Fiji
Samoa
Vanuatu
New
Caledonia
Niue
French
Polynesia
Tonga
Pitcairn
Islands
One of hundreds
1. Introduction: the Pacific Community
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15 countries, 7 territories
Population (2009): 9,7 million
Papua New Guinea (6,7 million -> Pitcairn 57 people)
3 sub-regions: Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia
Substantial diversity: bio-physical environment,
economies, demography, cultural and political
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0.1% of world population – 1/3 of world’s known and
documented languages (700)
Considerable similarities:
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Small size of domestic markets
Heavy reliance on imports
Isolation/transport challenges and costs
Dominance of public sectors
Weak manufacturing base and high cost structure
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Challenge:
many available statistics seem less relevant to
what is required to:
• accurately describe the impact/implications of
this crisis,
• effectively contribute to the development of
appropriate policy responses.
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Contributing factors
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Almost match in conceptual relevance of what is
available to what is needed.
Absence of real-time data in many cases
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under-performing administrative databases
Irregularity of major collections
Long lead-time t produce outputs
General absence of data on direct (tangible/visible)
impact on people and communities
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Illustration: annual GDP growth
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Recognised indicator of performance of economy –
feedback on impact of crisis
Need to determine trickle-down effect on people and
households
• Regular labor force surveys very important
(absence across most PICs)
• Reliance on censuses/HH surveys -> cannot
capture real-time dynamics
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Illustration: annual GDP growth (ii)
1. Global crisis not fully materializing until the
2nd part of 2008
 2007 figures, 2008 estimates not very informative on
actual impacts on Pacific island economies today.
2. GDP volatility over past 8 years (Figures 1a-b).
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Figure 1a: Annual GDP (real) growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2008
12
11
10
9
8
Cook Islands
7
FSM
6
Fiji
5
4
Kiribati
3
Marshall Islands
2
Nauru
1
New Caledonia
0
-1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Palau
-2
Papua New Guinea
-3
Samoa
-4
Solomon Islands
-5
-6
Tonga
-7
Tuvalu
-8
Vanuatu
-9
-10
-11
-12
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Figure 1a: Annual GDP per capita (real) growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2008
12
11
10
9
8
Cook Islands
7
FSM
6
5
Fiji Islands
4
Kiribati
3
Marshall Islands
2
New Caledonia
1
Niue
0
-1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Palau
-2
Papua New Guinea
-3
Samoa
-4
Solomon Islands
-5
Tonga
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
-12
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Illustration: annual GDP growth (iii)
3. Even the very high GDP growth (>7%) / per capita
growth (> 4%) in PNG/SI means little in development
terms on the ground, where some 80% of populations
live outside the GDP zone
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contribution of subsistence produce, cultural products and
traditional wealth remain largely outside such calculations,
Isolated from most basic government services or
infrastructure.
Lowest MDG achievements across the region
2. Tracking the health of Pacific community’s
economies and the wellbeing of its people
Absence of alternative indicators
Challenges
• Complement regular statistics on the radar of most
NSOs with measures that capture individual household
wellbeing, equity in the distribution of resources and
the general welfare of citizens.
• Engage more vigorously with data users and
stakeholders
• Meet current and anticipate future data needs
3. How can we help contribute to help make
greater use and better sense of statistics?
What do we need, what can we do?
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Enabling environment, facilitating conditions
(Resources, functioning NSS, regular data user-producer dialogue,
committed leadership, culture of evidence-based decision making)
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Partnerships between data producers an users
(national level, public/private sector; international)
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Delivery on, and management of expectations
(provide public service, adapt to changing world)
4. Concluding Remarks
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Partnership building, delivering on/managing
expectations is ongoing work-in-progress
Progress in the making
(enabled by political mandate: Pacific Plan)
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Development of Minimum National Development
Indicator (MNDI) databases
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Core set for all Pacific island countries/territories
Mix of methodologies/measures (improvement to administrative
databases; short/regular HH-based development indicator survey;
socio-economic surveillance)
Development of NSS – build upon/consolidate recent
achievements
4. Concluding Remarks
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Untie “urgency of statistics” from current crisis
tie to everyday management/decision-making
Thank you.