Transcript EPRI’s Power Delivery Reliability Initiative

EPRI’s
Package
Power ISO
for aMembership
Digital Society
Karl Stahlkopf
Vice President, Power
Delivery, EPRI
University of Wisconsin
October20, 2000
The Reliability Challenge
• Process becoming more complex
• Increasing bulk power transactions strain grid
capacity
• Grid expansion is not keeping up with growth
• Incentives for expansion are lacking
• Infrastructure needs to be upgraded
KES 2
Transactions Increasing Exponentially
TVA Interchange
Transactions
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
KES 3
1996
1997
1998
1999
Grid Expansion Not Keeping Up
%
• Transmission expansion is
less than half of demand
growth and getting worse
30
25
20
Electricity
Demand
15
10
Transmission
Capacity
Expansion
5
0
1988-98
KES 4
1999-09
• Distribution construction
has fallen 10% in real
terms over last decade
U.S. Transmission 10-Yr Plans*
15,000
13,120
12,877
13,000
Miles
Added
11,761
12,649
11,000
10,400
8,851
9,000
6,818
7,000
5,834
5,556
5,000
90
KES 5
91
92
93
Year
94
95
96
97
98
Background:
Problems Increasing
1965
1977
1994
1996
1998
1999
2000
KES 6
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
November: Northeast blackout
July: New York City blackout
January: WSCC breakup (Northridge earthquake)
December: WSCC breakup
July 2: WSCC cascading outage
August 10: WSCC cascading outage
June: MAPP breakup
July: Chicago (100,000 customers)
July: Midwest price spikes to $10,000 MWh
December: San Francisco tripoff
July: New York City (200,000 customers)
July: Chicago (100,000 customers)
July: Midwest price spikes to $6,000 MWh
August: Chicago (“Loop” business district)
May: PJM power voltage reductions and curtailments
May: New England price spikes to $6000 MWh
June: California outages and price increases
Rise of the Digital Economy
• Phase 1 -- Computers
• Phase 2 -- Embedded processors
– Now 30 times as many stand-alone chips as in computers
• Phase 3 -- Networks
– One million Web sites
– 200 million computers worldwide
– E-commerce = 2% of American GDP
KES 7
Challenges for Electric Power
• Quantity
– IT alone accounts for 10-13% U.S. electricity consumption
– 80% energy growth is being met by electricity
• Quality
– Grid delivers 3-nines reliability (99.9% reliable)
– Microprocessors require 9-nines reliability (99.9999999%)
– Even brief outages can cost a company $ millions
KES 8
Rise of the Digital Economy
4
13%
Digital Power
50%
TkWh
Analog Power
2
1980
2000
2020
Demand for “digital quality” power is growing rapidly
KES 9
Two Reliability Goals
• Increase transmission capacity and enhance
reliability to support a stable wholesale power
market
• Upgrade distribution infrastructure to support
integration of low-cost power from transmission
system with new DR options
Don’t try to Gold-Plate
the Grid
KES 10
The Effect in Silicon Valley
• “The impact of momentary interruptions of power is
extremely costly in terms of lost productivity and
potentially damaged equipment at Oracle….Whether the
electricity was free or cost three times as much would
have absolutely no effect on the cost of our product.”
– Mike Wallach
• “What is self-sufficiency worth to us [Oracle]? Millions of
dollars per hour.”
– Jeff Byron
• “Sun Microsystems has estimated that a blackout costs
up to $1 million per minute”
– Larry Owens, Silicon Valley Power
KES 11
Consumer Response: Market for Backup
Power Takes Off
1 MW Gen-Sets
Units Ordered
4500
Output GW
9
4000
8
3500
7
3000
6
2500
2000
Total Output
Units Ordered
1500
5
4
1000
3
500
2
0
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Source: Bechtel
KES 12
1
0
EPRI’s Response
• Short Term: Form the “Reliability Initiative”
• Long Term: Form the “Consortium for Electrical
Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society”
(CEIDS)
KES 13
Reliability Initiative
• Approximately $5.7 million raised so far
• 40 utilities have signed agreements
• 4 more are pending
• Further interest expected as word gets out
KES 14
Transmission System Assessments
• Grid complexity requires new analytical approach
• Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) effective for
analyzing multiple factors in complex systems
• PRA beta-test led to modifications
• Grid reliability study of two of three
Interconnections
– In close cooperation with NERC-RAS
KES 15
Distribution System Assessments
• Systems differ greatly in architecture, equipment,
and operations; therefore representative systems
will be analyzed using deterministic methods
–
–
–
–
KES 16
Urban radial, largely underground (ComEd)
Urban network, largely underground (ConEd)
Urban/suburban radial, largely overhead (DQE)
Suburban, combined overhead & underground (Duke)
Digital Society Initiative
• Form a “Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure
to Support a Digital Society” (CEIDS)
• Structure of Initiative based on broad industry
participation
– Users of “Digital Electricity”
– Equipment Suppliers/Vendors
– Electric Utilities
KES 17
CEIDS Initiative
• Form Consortium early in 2001
• Goals
– Raise $20 Million from Private Sector
– Seek matching Public Sector Funding
– Initiate a research program to insure that
“digital quality” electricity can be made
available at a reasonable cost
KES 18
Meeting the Reliability Challenge
9-nines
UPS under desk
(Logarithmic Scale)
Power reliability
To the Chip
Capacitor on circuit board
6-nines
UPS Substation
To the Plug
PQ Park
On-Site DR
3-nines
To Customer
Premises
Grid Technologies
A combination of technologies will be required
KES 19
Conclusion
• Grid reliability is being
challenged by the needs
of a digital society
• Industry is responding
aggressively
• EPRI’s Reliability and
CEIDS initiatives focus
developing a national
response
KES 20