Transcript HPTV and IPTV Development : Hong Kong and selected cities

HDTV and IPTV Development:
Hong Kong and
selected cities
John Yip
Chief Engineer
RTHK
2009.03.12
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1. Introduction (1)
HDTV and IPTV are advancing in the Asian
Pacific region
Viewers embrace the benefits of Digital TV
and Triple-play eg improved picture quality
and additional TV channels.
Hong Kong: enjoying a very healthy growth
in both HDTV and IPTV.
For digital TV service providers, ROI
(Return On Investment) is a primary concern.
Growth is crucial: no growth => no ROI.
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1. Introduction (2)
To look at the progress in Hong Kong, Shanghai,
Singapore and Sydney.
To analyse the growth and the underlying factors,
an Excel calculator is introduced, focussing on the
soft factors, based on the RPMO methodology (re
ABU digital broadcast symposiums: 2005, 2007,
2008).
RPMO calculator + Benchmarking curves have
been developed, to assist service providers in
evaluating critical growth factors and the areas
where further efforts may be required.
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2. HDTV in Hong Kong
DTT channels (simulcast)
on MFN
HDTV + co-channel SD
on SFN
MPEG2
MPEG4 (H.264),
MHEG5 (middleware)
Dolby 5.1
 TVB & ATV have been providing the digital TV
transmission network services, since Dec. 31, 2007.
 Population coverage : 75% by early August 2008.
 DTT/HDTV : 32% of TVH, by end Jan. 2009.
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2. HDTV/ DTT in HK
Basic UHF TV configuration
Analog
TVB
TVB
ATV
ATV
Analog TV
MFN
TVB
TVB
ATV
ATV
SDTV (simulcast, in MPEG-2)
HD
SFN1 (TVB)
SFN2 (ATV)
…
1
2 x SD
1 HD + 2 SD
MPEG-4, Ch. 35
n
5 SD
or
MPEG-4, Ch. 37
2 x SD
1 HD + 2SD
or
HD
SFN3
Proposed for Mobile TV, Ch. 47
SFN4
Reserved, Ch. 62
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3. IPTV in Hong Kong
IPTV provided by PCCW, CTI
Household broadband penetration rate
= 78% (end 2008)
Technologies : ADSL, ADSL2+, FTTH, with
subscriber data-rates of 6 Mbps 100 Mbps.
Bundled prices : highly competitive.
Penetration (TVH) : 50% (after about 5 years),
averaging a healthy 10% pa.
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4. Analytical Model (RPMO) (1)

Generic growth equation for digital broadcast
technology was introduced (in ABU DTV2007)
Driving Force (DF)
= Function (soft and hard factors)
= M (r, p, m, o) * H (G, g)
Regulatory (r)
Pricing (p)
Marketing (m)
Driving
Force
Macroeconomic (G)
Geo-physical (g)
Others (o)
(Technology is reflected in Pricing, Device Attributes and Quality.)
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4. Analytical Model (RPMO) (2)



Soft Factors : more controllable.
Hard Factors : more critical in the initial start-up.
The soft-factor analytical model, RPMO model,
covers Regulatory, Pricing, Marketing, Other
factors.
4.1 RPMO Calculator (Excel based)
 7 data-entry boxes ie for R, P, M, O (4 sub-factors).
For each box, user enters the major issues.
 For each issue, user enters a weight (0/1/2/3) and a
mark (5.0 – 0.0). Marks: for Excellent, Good, Fair,
Poor, Bad, No-Go.
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4.1 RPMO Calculator (1)
RPMO Method
(Soft-factor evaluation template)
Digital Technology =
Economy =
Date =
(Computed data in blue.)
R (Regulatory factor)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
P (Pricing factor)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
M (Marketing/ Promoting factor)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Major issues
Major issues
Major issues
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4.1 RPMO Calculator (2)
O (Content)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O (Consumer Habits)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O (Device Attributes)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O (Quality)
Wt. (0/1/2/3)
1
0
0
0
0
1
mark (5 max., 0 min.)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Major issues
Major issues
Major issues
Major issues
Geometric mean for "O" =
0.00
Geometric mean for "R,P,M,O" =
0.00
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4.1 RPMO Calculator (3)
Externalities:
Penetration (Growth) Data
Total market (eg TVH)
(in '000s, approx.) =
(enter actual data)
1,000
Years
1
2
3
4
5
No. of subs. (in '000s), approx.
50
100
150
200
250
Cumulative penetration % =
No. of years =
Average growth/ yr. =
25.0
5
5.0%
Penetration
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Increase
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
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4.1 RPMO Calculator (4)
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
(N.B. adjust plot da ta ranges w he re ne cessary by right-clicking the da ta line .)
Hard-Factor evaluation (for comparative studies):
Hard Factor
Remarks
HDTV:
GDP*(GDP/ capita)
For a country, PPP
IPTV:
GDP/ sq. km
For a city, PPP
Mobile TV:
(GDP/capita) * T
For a city, PPP
References:
http://www.rthk.org.hk/mediadigest/20070614_76_121465.html
http://www.rthk.org.hk/mediadigest/20060316_76_120867.html
http://www.rthk.org.hk/mediadigest/20061214_76_121247.html
http://www.rthk.org.hk/mediadigest/20080315_76_121785.html
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4.1 RPMO Calculator (5)



The time-span under consideration is
important. Choose either the entire growth
history (past years) or just the most recent
year.
The major issues within one soft-factor are
inter-related so an arithmetic mean is used.
R, P, M, O : relatively independent, hence
a geometric mean is used.
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4.2 Major Issues, HDTV (1)
Regulatory, R





High spectrum availability
Liberal spectrum licensing/ allocation
Liberal cross-platform content policy
Definitive timeframe for analog-off
High HD quota required of broadcasters
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4.2 Major Issues, HDTV (2)
Pricing, P

Pricing of HDTV receiver and installation
Marketing, M


Strong viewer education
Strong promotion by the industry
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4.2 Major Issues, HDTV (3)
Other, O
Content:
 Large volume of HD programming
 Compelling HD content eg major events
Consumer Habits:
 Strong TV viewing habit (based on h/ wk)
 Identifiable major viewing preferences
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4.2 Major Issues, HDTV (4)
Device Attributes:




High availability of iDTV, STB and LCD/ PDP
EPG and subtitling
Ease of use of HD receiving equipment
Interactivity and recording
Quality:


Comprehensive and strong signal coverage
Picture Quality (based on Mbps, MPEG2/ H.264)
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4.2 Major Issues, HDTV (5)
Example : “Good” conditions for a mark of “4” are :
- Mostly-free cross-platform content-flow (eg
between FTA and cable/satellite, no policy
favouring the latter).
- Well-defined analog-off timetable.
- HD quota of 21 hours/ week or more.
- Initial HDTV consumer outlay (set + installation
+ subscription) at <= 2% of GDP/capita.
- Average TV viewing of >= 21 hours/ week.
- Strong signal coverage of 75% or better.
- HD at 15 Mbps or better, preferable on H.264.
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4.3 Major Issues, IPTV (1)
Regulatory, R



Liberal IPTV licensing policy.
Free-market approach to triple-play.
Liberal cross-platform content policy.
Pricing, P




Pricing of STB and installation.
Pricing of annual subscription.
Competitive package-bundling, triple-play.
Strong anti-piracy protection.
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4.2 Major Issues, IPTV (2)
Marketing, M




Strong advertizing efforts by operators
Offering attractive promotional packages
Free channels offered to subscribers
Strong front-line promoting efforts
Other, O
Content:
 Large number of channels available
 Wide range of content categories
 Exclusive, compelling, premiere content
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4.2 Major Issues, IPTV (3)
Consumer Habits:
 Strong TV viewing habit (based on h/ week)
 Identifiable major viewing preferences
Device Attributes:
 Wide range of Set-Top Box features
 EPG and subtitling; Interactivity and recording
 Ease of use of STB
Quality:
 Reliability of network service, STB, etc.
 Picture Quality (based on Mbps and on MPEG2 or 4)
 Broadband speed (Mbps) for triple-play
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4.2 Major Issues, IPTV (5)
Example : “Good” conditions, for a mark of “4” are :
- Mostly-free cross-platform content-flow (eg
between IPTV and cable/ FTA and no policy
favouring the latter eg exclusivity).
- IPTV pricing pa at less than 1% of GDP/capita.
- >= 100 TV channels available.
- Average TV viewing of >= 21 hours/ week.
- Triple-play broadband speed at >= 10 Mbps.
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4.3 Externalities (1)



Influencing factors external to the RPMO model.
Hard factors can be externalities.
Impact of the Olympics 2008 is included in the
analyses as the content has been watched worldwide.
HDTV in Hong Kong
 Pre-existence of an estimated 0.4 M large LCD/
Plasma TV displays.
 This externality to be discounted in the RPMO
analytical model.
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4.3 Externalities (2)
IPTV in Hong Kong

Strong anti-piracy protection is reflected
as a low/ zero leakage of revenue.

GDP/ sq. km is one of the highest in the
world due to high GDP/capita and high
population density. The high population
density allows a fast rollout of IPTV.
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5. RPMO Analyses :HK, SH, SIN & SYD (1)
Table 1: HDTV and IPTV in HK, Shanghai, Singapore and Sydney
(estimated data, over the growth years, Jan. 2009)
Economies
Hong Kong
HDTV Shanghai
(FTA)
IPTV
TVH (M)
Pen. %
Approx.
Yrs.
Av.
% pa
Tech. Std.
GB206002006, H.264
Remarks
For RPMO model,
externality is discounted.
(HD + 2 SD)
in one 8 MHz ch.
2.2
30.9
1
30.9
5
n/a
0.5
n/a
GB20600-2006 Started in mid 2008.
HD5, started in 11/2007,
DVB-T, H.264 is also carried on cable since
mid 2008.
Singapore
1.1
n/a
1
n/a
Sydney
1.5
33.3
6
5.6
DVB-T
Hong Kong
2.2
49.5
5
9.9
MPEG2/
H.264
Shanghai
5
15
3
5
H.264
Singapore
1.1
5
2
2.5
H.264
Sydney
1.5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Co-channel SD available from
Jan. 2009 onwards.
2 telcos. > 160 SD ch.;
HD ch. available.
10.6% growth in
2008 alone.
Nationwide and
niche licences.
Internet TV only.
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5. RPMO Analyses: HK, SH, SIN & SYD (2)
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Average Penetration (% p.a.)
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
RPMO Value
HDTV
IPTV
Aggregate
Fig. 1: Benchmarking curves for HDTV and IPTV, based on RPMO analyses
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5. RPMO Analyses: HK, SH, SIN & SYD (3)
Major improvement areas identified:
HDTV
 Affordable HDTV-set prices (prices are falling).
 Compelling HD content eg major events.
 Liberal cross-platform content-flow policies.
 Strong promotion and marketing.

IPTV




Liberal cross-platform content-flow policies.
Exclusive, compelling, premiere content.
Large number and range of channels.
High broadband speeds and reliability.
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6. ITU-ABU Workshop in Laos (1)



Workshop on digital services implementation,
Dec. 2008, Vientiane, Laos.
Preliminary results were produced by the
participants; RPMO values for Digital Radio,
DTT and Digital Cable TV ranged from 3.2 to
3.9.
For DTT (ie SD) and Digital Radio, a
simplified growth equation is postulated, by
factoring GDP/capita into the P (pricing) factor,
ie consumer outlay being considered as % of
GDP/ capita.
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6. ITU-ABU Workshop in Laos (2)
Driving Force (DTT / Digital Radio) :
DF = R*P(GDP/capita)*M*O
 What the consumer may pay for a DTT or DAB/
DRM receiver may be assessed, by using a
benchmark price from an economy welladvanced in the concerned technology eg DAB.
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6. ITU-ABU Workshop in Laos (3)
For Economy under
consideration
Price A
= Price B *(ratio of GDP/capita)*(ratio of consumption, h/week)
Benchmark
economy

where consumption = TV viewing (for DTT), or radio
listening (for Digital Radio).

Pricing equation is subject to the consumer’s consideration
of Opportunity Cost and possibly to the micro-economic
Principle of Utility Maximization
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6. ITU-ABU Workshop in Laos (4)
Principle of Utility Maximization :
MU1/ P1 = MU2/ P2 = MU3/ P3, etc.

where MUi and Pi are the marginal
utility and price of good i (eg a DTT
STB or DAB receiver) respectively.
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7. Summary

HDTV and IPTV are changing the TV-viewing
landscape in the Asian-Pacific region.

Broadcasters/ telcos are vitally concerned about
Growth following a rollout, as ROI depends firstly
on market penetration.

The application of the RPMO model is exemplified
by analysing HDTV and IPTV in Hong Kong,
Shanghai, Singapore and Sydney.

The Excel-based RPMO calculator is freely
available, to facilitate analyses of digital TV
development.
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Our Target: GROWTH but ..
Get
Rich
Only-if
We
Try
Hard.
IPTV Development
HDTV Development
Digital TV Development
Mobile TV Development
Searchable on Google, etc.
(Use slide show
and  to animate.)
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