Transcript The problem with Belgium…

Frederik Delaplace
Editorial Director Mediafin
De Tijd & L’Echo
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Flemish,European,
Belgian
Working in Brussels
Living in Flanders
Managing a bilingual
newsroom, producing
newspaper in Fr & Dtch
Dutch first name,
French surname
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Institutionally: eager for
change
Economically right-wing
Wealthy
Oriented to the AngloSaxon world
Wants more self-control
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Institutionally conservative
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Economically left-wing
Slow economic recovery
Oriented to southern
Europe
Wants to protect Belgian
structures
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Will have to cut expenses
Will have to raise taxes
Will have to rethink the costly social security
Will have to strengthen the financial sector
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Will need (at least) 22bn € savings and new
income by 2015.
Economic growth above european average
Belgium, one of two European countries where
economic activity is now higher than before
2008
 Budget deficit lower than European average
 Credit rating AA+ (S&P, Fitch), Aa1 (Moody’s)
 Unemployment lower than European average
 Current account surplus (families save more
than budget deficit) => poor country, rich people
 World famous social security system
 Rich families and companies=> financing debt
internally
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Sovereign debt above average, just above
100% GDP (difference with European average declining)
Credit rating under negative review, largely
due to banking problems
Competitiveness worsening due to high
labour cost (automatic inflation link),
inflexible labour market
Political turmoil
Economic growth 2011-12
Japan
US
UK
Spain
2012
Italy
Netherlands
France
Germany
Eurozone
Belgium
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2011
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2008:
 Government intervention in Fortis (sold to BNP
Paribas), Dexia and KBC (capital injections and
warranties)
 Restructuring program agreed with EU
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2011:
 Nationalisation of Dexia Bank Belgium
 New problems ahead?
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Rating agencies very critical about Belgian
debt situation
…our prime minister
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Relatively good economic growth
perspectives
Dynamic corporate culture, more and more
export driven (AB Inbev, Le Pain Quotidien,
Univeg, Jan De Nul, Netlog…)
Financial problems rather well handled, but
the inheritance remains heavy, rating revision
under way
Poor country, rich citizens
http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/video/2011
/oct/11/bill-bailey-bunker-belgium-video
[email protected]
@fdelaplace