Transcript Egypt*s trade 1990-2014

Egypt’s trade 1990-2014
Developmental effects of the
liberalization of trade
Egypt recent history
Egypt between 1980-1990
• Cutting subsidies for agriculture
Egypt today
• Geo Political turmoil
• Economic position
• Trade Indicators –
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imports:
consumer:31% intermediate :29% raw:21%
Export: Consumer:46% Intermediate:30% Raw:20%
Exports:
Various countries-24%, US- 6.9%, Italy-7.9%, India-6.9%, Saudi Arabia-6.23%, Turkey- 5.34%
Imports:
Others 20.9%, China-9.4%, U.S- 7.6%, Germany-6.7%
TRADE AGREEMENTS
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The Uruguay Round
Egypt – European Union (EU) Partnership
the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA)
Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA)
Agreements results
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Quota cut
Tariff reduction
Increase in trading size
change in composition of exports and imports
Change in current account
Size of export and imports
• volatility
• Increase in both exports and imports, but
substantially more in imports
Current Account
Import and Export partners
• Export: EU, USA. Later: India, Saudi Arabia,
Russian Federation,
• Import: EU, USA, Later: China, India
• Diversification in trading partners
Import and export composition
• Change in import composition
Import and export composition
• Change in export composition
Import and Export composition
Percent of World Growth
No real trend, composition of exports might be
the cause for the volatility
Revealed comparative advantage
Textile and vegetable
show comparative
advantage
Tourism
• Tourists arrival rise up to the Egyptian
revolution
• Central component in the service sector
Energy Export and Import
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Export two main sources of energy; petroleum and gas.
1990 - 2000 refined gas resources for local consumption only.
Oil supply dwindle
During the last two decades Egypt has gone through a drastic change in
the composition of its energy export, as oil export was reduced and gas
export increased.
2000 gas fields discovered
Since 1990 Egypt production of oil decreased from exporting 400,000
barrels to just about 200,000 in 2000 and almost no net exports in 2008
(http://www.irangi.org/Statistics/Egypt.pdf).
Since the early 2000’s gas exports from Egypt have been rapidly
increasing, reaching 700 cubic feet of export in 2008 starting from no
export at all in 2002.
Since 2010 gas export is diminishing as well, dropping to about 500 cubic
feet in 2012. By 2012 Egypt has gone through a negative process that
might force it to start being a net importer of energy (oil and gas).
Savings and investment
• GDP fixed capital formation (GDPFCF) which explores the net investment
of the government: the sum of investment (GDP not consumed) in the
private and public sectors of the state.
• GDPFCF is extremely volatile with no real long trends
• The yearly GDPFCF rates are fluctuating widely and only seem to get more
volatile with time.
Future improvements
• More openness and focus on labor intensive
industry in which Egypt have relative advantage
• investment
• Improving education and widening structure for
technological improvement
• Equality (GINI Index)
• Corruption index2006-7- 2012-115