Transcript Literature Review - SUPERSLR - Stanford University`s Project on

Review of literature on SLR and its implications on the economics of
seaports and coastal cities.
Damilola Sobo
Abstract
In evaluating the impact of sea level rise on sea ports and
coastal cities, this literature review integrates assessments of the
economic importance of sea ports with expectations of regional
sea level rises and associated storm surges. The analysis finds
that (1) the port cities most threatened by sea level rise are
located in deltaic regions, portal cities across the north and
east coast of North America and small islands in the
Caribbean, Indian and Pacific oceans (2) areas most
vulnerable (in terms of mitigation and engagement
strategies) to rising sea levels are in the south
Mediterranean, Africa, South and South-east Asian
countries and small island developing countries (SIDC).
This review contributes to the body of knowledge and work
being undertaken by the Stanford University Project in
Engineering Response to Sea Level Rise (SUPERSLR).
Methodology in Assessing
Economic Impact
 Assessing city/regional exposure to SLR
 Assessing exposure of port assets
 Assessing Vulnerability
 Assessing Indirect Impact of Port
The OECD Ranking/Selection Process
Literature Review analysis process
Assessing city/regional exposure to SLR
1.
Expected regional sea level
rise.
Higher rates of SLR expected in

Deltaic regions

West and East Coasts of
North America

Caribbean Community
(CARICOM) countries

Small Island Countries
2. Associated changes that reinforce SLR and
economically impact port. These include
flooding, erosion, increased precipitation
and rain
Assessing Exposure of Port Assets and
Infrastructure
•Graph shows the
logarithmic trend of
association between SLR
and direct losses from
infrastructure.
•Asian portal cities have
the most exposed assets
and infrastructure. 38% of
global portal cities are
located in Asia.
•Exposed assets in North
America is placed at $7
trillion (UNEP)
Assessing
vulnerability
 Sensitivity: refers the ability of SLR to severely impact the short and long
term operations of the ports and a substantial decrease to GDP of the
region
 Adaptation potential refers to the ability and speed of the port
authorities in responding to the direct physical changes that SLR might
have on operations (SUPERSLR Port Assessment)
 Small island developing countries (SIDS), least developed countries
(LDCs) and landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) are most
vulnerable to changes in maritime transport services according to the
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD
report)
Assessing indirect port activities.
•Change in demand of transport
services
•Direct Port support sectors e.g.
electricity and water supply, port
service providers.
•Symbiotic economy and job
market present from the presence
and operations of the port. (Graph
across shows a case study of
Copenhagen port and the
estimated losses frm 2m SLR)
ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SUPERSLR DATA
Port Employment
 US, Germany and the Netherlands have high
number port employees.
 Benin Republic and Malaysia however are
more vulnerable to economic lose since there
are less developed social benefits/welfare
systems
Port Revenue (Money Moving
throug ports)
 US, Japan and Netherlands have largest port
economies.
 Aruba and Maldives are small island
countries and are more vulnerable.
Total # of Port Employees
United States
United Arab Emirates
SPAIN
New Zealand
Netherlands
Maldives
Malaysia
Latvia
JAPAN
Jamaica
Israel
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
Cyprus
canada
Benin
Australia
20746
8000
1078
600
86850
650
4220
289
1470
519
2500
United States
Spain
New Zealand
Netherlands
Mexico
Maldives**
Malaysia
JAPAN
Total
223000
2200
200
476
240
530
10000
240
Throughput $ as % of GDP
Percentage of GDP
Jamaica
Finland
Denmark
Cyprus
Canada
Australia
Aruba
0
5
10
Conclusion
 The qualitative and generic nature of the analysis of
these reports do not give much perspectives on the
impact of individual ports to the local, regional and
national setting
 It would be helpful to come up with a metric or model
that could properly capture the economic impact of
ports in order to efficiently evaluate the impact of SLR
on the port in question.
 It is necessary to adapt to SLR in all regions. However
the economic assessment impact gives policy makers a
good idea of the priority areas.