Transcript 1209Nantucketx

Planning for a Sustainable Future With
Wind, Water and the Sun
Mark A. Ruffalo, Marco Krapels, Mark Z. Jacobson
Nantucket Project 2012, Nantucket, Mass., October 7, 2012
What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?
Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year.
Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-20 years. Global temperatures are
rising at a faster rate than any time in history.
Increasing population is increasing pollution, global warming, and energy
prices.
Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability
 Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air
Pollution, Energy Security
ELECTRIC POWER
VEHICLES
Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)
1. Wind
2. CSP
WWS-Battery-Electric
3. Geothermal
4. Tidal
WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell
5. PV
6. Wave
7. Hydroelectricity
Not Recommended
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Natural gas, biomass
Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol
Soy, algae biodiesel
Compressed natural gas
Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)
End Use Power Demand For All Purposes
WORLD
U.S.
NYS
2010 (TW)
12.5
2.50
0.094
2030 with current fuels
16.9
2.83
0.096
2030 converting all energy
To wind-water-sun (WWS)
and electricty/H2
11.5
1.78
0.060
2030 reduction (%) due to WWS
32
37
37
Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS
TECHNOLOGY
PCT SUPPLY 2030
5-MW onshore wind turbines
5-MW offshore wind turbines
5-kW Res. roof PV systems
100-kW com/gov roof PV systems
50-MW Solar PV plants
100-MW CSP plants
100-MW geothermal plants
1300-MW hydro plants
1-MW tidal turbines
0.75-MW wave devices
10%
40
6
12
10
10
5
5.5
1
0.5
100%
NUMBER
4020
12,700
5 million
500,000
828
387
36
6.6 (89% in place)
2600
1910
Area to power 100%
of NYS for all
purposes
with WWS
Onshore wind:
footprint=0.05 km2
spacing=1.46% of NYS
(blue is open space)
Geothermal
0.01% of NYS
Solar PV+CSP
power plants
0.85% of NYS
All rooftop PV
(0.45% of NYS)
Offshore
wind:
spacing=
4.62% of
NYS (blue is
open space)
New York State
Wind Resources
Dvorak et al., 2011
Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro
California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in
2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using
much CSP storage.
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
2008-2010
2020-2030
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Wave
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
CSP
Solar PV
Tidal
Conventional (+Externalities)
4-7
10-17
>>11
4-7
4
10-15
9-13
>>11
7 (+5.3)=12.3
≤4
8-13
4-11
4-7
4
7-8
5-7
5-7
8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Costs Increase of Residential Electric Power 2003-11
Five states with highest percent of electric power from wind
Remaining 45 states
+2 ¢/kWh
+3.6 ¢/kWh
States with greatest increases in percent of electricity from wind experienced lowest
electric power price increases.
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/)
Health Cost Savings due to WWS in NYS
Air pollution kills 4000/year in NYS, costing
$33 billion/year, or 3% of NYS GDP
NYS needs ~270 GW ($570 billion) of
installed power to convert to WWS for all
purposes. Health cost savings alone
would pay for WWS in ~17 y
July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson
New Jobs and Price Stability From WWS in NYS
WWS will generate 71,000 permanent
jobs/year for energy facilities alone.
Since >98% WWS will be in NYS but most
fossils are from out of state, conversion to
WWS increases NYS jobs.
Since WWS fuels are free, their prices do
not fluctuate.
Info.ussolarinstitute.com
Summary of Plan to Power NYS with WWS
Converting to WWS and electricity/H2 will reduce NYS power demand ~37%
Eliminate ~4000 air pollution deaths/yr in NYS
Reduce air pollution cost to NYS by $33 billion/yr (3% of GDP)
Reduce global warming cost to NYS by $3.2 billion/yr by 2050
Generate 71,000 permanent jobs/yr for energy facilities alone.
Economic electricity costs of WWS are now lower than those of fossil fuels
Requires only 0.96% more NYS land for footprint; 1.46% for spacing
Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability.
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html