Transcript South Africa`s position - Parliamentary Monitoring Group

Public hearing on GOVSA Discussion Paper on
climate change convened by Portfolio
Committee on Environmental Affairs
Hilton Trollip, Senior Researcher
Energy, Environment & Climate Change
Energy Research Centre,
University of Cape Town
22nd September, 2015, Parliament
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
INDC
ERC will focus on the mitigation component of the INDC
- This means how South Africa intends to limit it’s greenhouse gas emissions
Contents
• Role of University of Cape Town - Energy Research Centre (ERC)
• What is South Africa’s position on mitigation
– What is accepted/established ?
– Why should we care ?
•
How should the INDC support South African position ?
– Engagement in UNFCCC processes
– Technical attributes of a mitigation INDC
•
How does the mitigation INDC support the South African position ?
– International assessment
– National assessment
•
•
•
Mitigation is achievable while achieving socio-economic goals
Low carbon development is also good for improving air/water quality, quality of life
Conclusions
Role of
University of Cape Town - Energy Research Centre (ERC)
ERC is
• South African and African-based and oriented
• multi-disciplinary
• pursues excellence in technology, policy and sustainable development
research, education and capacity building programmes at a local and
international level
provide evidence for policy makers
independent – without fear or favour
 transparent, peer-reviewed, open, …
What is South Africa’s position on mitigation
What is accepted/established ?
**from South Africa draft position document
• “South Africa as a global responsible citizen is
committed to making a fair contribution to addressing
the challenge of climate change based on science and
equity
• “…to ensure that global emission reduction efforts are
adequate to avert dangerous climate change
– while respecting developing countries’ priorities for
development and eradicating poverty
• “effective (be based on sound science)
• “adequate (to keep temperature increase below 2°C)
How should the INDC support South African position ?
Engagement in UNFCCC processes
• South Africa demonstrated leadership at COP15 with
the Copenhagen PPD pledge
• Ditto at COP17- Durban
– The Paris COP21 will be implementing the agreement made
in Durban
• SA is the G77 Chair
South Africa is responsible for negotiating and speaking on behalf of two-thirds
of the UN membership on key development issues - the G77 is the largest
coalition of developing countries in the UN. It provides the means for countries
to promote collective economic interests and enhance negotiating capacity on
major economic and development issues.
What is South Africa’s position on mitigation
**What is accepted/established ?
**from South Africa draft position document
** “South Africa calls for enhancement of mitigation
ambition, in accordance with the provisions and
principles of the Convention with a view to achieving
the 1.5*** or 2 degree Celsius target
**from South Africa draft position document
***position of African Group of negotiators, endorsed by African Ministers
What is South Africa’s position on mitigation
Why should we care ?
If inadequately addressed Climate Change will have
severe consequences for Africa and South Africa
– To avert this requires every country has to play its part, and
involves considerable challenges
• South Africa has played a leadership role up until now
– Constructive: GOVSA is acting in a way that is
commensurate with the outcomes we want and need
• If GOVSA DOES not act appropriately and effectively we increase
risks of severe consequences
– From climate change
– From benefits of membership of international community
How should the INDC support South African position ?
Technical attributes of a mitigation INDC
• Clear
• In good faith**
• Show how it supports South African position
– To achieve global 2oC ( and/or 1.5oC )
• Fair contribution
– To achieve local implementation
• Adequate evidence and analysis
• Support previous commitments and show development and
‘homework’ relevant to UNFCCC developments
There is no doubt South Africa has the necessary capacity for
the above. The question is how it chooses to deploy this
capacity ?
**can’t say one thing and be known and seen to be supporting and doing another
IS SA MITIGATION INDC FAIR?
How does the mitigation INDC support the South African
position ? - International assessment of ambition level
Inadequate:
If all governments put forward
inadequate positions warming
likely to exceed 3 – 4 °C
Role Model
Sufficient
Sufficient:
Fully
consistent
with below
2°C limit
Medium
Role Model:
Medium:
Not consistent with limiting
warming below 2°C as it would
require many other countries to
make a comparably greater
effort and much deeper
reductions
More than
consistent
with below
2°C limit
Inadequate
Climate Action Tracker
Bhutan
Costa Rica
Ethiopia
Morocco
Brazil
China
EU
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Norway
Peru
Switzerland
USA
Australia
Canada
Chile
Japan
New Zealand
Russian
Federation
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Ukraine
How does the mitigation INDC support the South African
position ? - International assessment of ambition level
Medium
Sufficient
Role Model
Emissions (Mt CO2-eq)
Inadequate
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Climate Action Tracker
Is SA’s contribution a fair share?
2030
target
Baseline
2030
target
2030
target
"Fair Share"
Climate Equity Reference Calculator: http://calculator.climateequityreference.org
IS THE South African MITIGATION INDC POSSIBLE ?
•
•
14 Gt line added in blue – output of DDPP result: energy plus
Green line – with AFOLU, waste, Iron & Steel Industrial Process emissions
2400
2200
Emissions (Mt CO2-eq)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Assessment of 14Gt energy emissions
• Linked full-sector economic CGE model with full-sector energy
optimization model
– Documented
– Transparent
– Open
http://deepdecarbonization.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/09/DDPP_ZAF.pdf
DDPP consists of research teams from 16 countries representing 74% of
current global GHG emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,
Germany India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South
Korea, United Kingdom, and United States. The teams consist of scholars
from leading research institutions in their respective countries, who are
acting independently.
DDPP combined results
Strong growth projected
Value-added to GDP for major sectors in 2010, 2030, and 2050
Core of the economy remains strong
Industry value add to GDP by industrial subsector
Unemployment reduced
Unemployment rate over time
• GDP/capita increases 170%
• Population in low-income bracket
decreases from 50% to 18% by
2050
• Unemployment decreases from
25% to 12%/18%
Decarbonising electricity is KEY !
How does the mitigation INDC support the South African
position ? - National assessment of ambition level
Further points
• Existing official/public statistics** are:
– Inadequate – the Inventory is necessary but cannot be a basis for
what is now required for mitigation analysis, implementation and
monitoring
– Not up to date
– A sticking point that needs urgent attention
• Government policies are not aligned
– Each Ministry/department appears to have a different often
contradictory policy
**Official statistics, not data held confidential by emitters
Conclusions
• Linked energy-system/economy modeling and detailed
research shows PPD range is achievable while also
achieving socio-economic goals
• South Africa needs to improve statistics
• Alignment of government departments/efforts
– Climate change involves much, much more than environmental
policy
• Process of open debate, informed by high quality
evidence and analysis is required to deepen and extend
the evidence-based policy making process
– To ensure balancing interests
Example of renewable energy electricity in SA
Thank you !
How should the INDC support South African position ?
Some possible mitigation INDCs and outcomes
1.
INDC FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C …And international success
 FIRST PRIZE, what we are working for
2.
INDC NOT FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C
 undermines negotiations and increases risks of all climate change risks, plus…
If South Africa tries to be a free-rider
 Steady loss of benefits of international community
• Trade, investment, …
• Other lost opportunities
3.
INDC FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C …But international failure
 our mitigation INDC is flexible, consistent with multi-lateral negotiations process
 ( we make sure we address adaptation )
4.
INDC INDC is late, reluctant, vague, conflicted, … ( and does little …late )
– Incoherent policy
– Stranded assets, Dead-end development path, Lost opportunities, Much more costly to act later
– Many mitigation options carry significant benefits