Transcript Opening presentation from Caroline Harper

Including Children in Policy
Responses to Economic Crisis :
Lessons from Past Policies for a
Sustainable Future
Intent of paper
• Unpacking some of the factors that make a
difference in whether and how resumption of
social progress is achievable
• Identifying whether children can meanwhile
be protected.
• Proposing that we can do more about it than
is currently being done through conventional
child oriented policy
• Suggesting that we are obliged to tackle this
problem by engaging with the debates on
economic crisis and recommending how.
in the majority of policy contexts child
wellbeing is for the most part treated as a
benign issue, with children remaining largely
politically invisible and discussion of their
interests on the whole confined to sectorspecific and welfare-oriented debates.
Progress on child wellbeing, is not
inevitable, even with economic growth
• In many developed countries, child poverty rates
remain worryingly high, especially considering their
levels of economic prosperity.
• Take the USA.
• In 1979 child poverty stood at 16.2%,
• reached a peak of 22% in 1993
• and was still 18% in 2007 (NCCP)
Child poverty is:
• multi-dimensional, dynamic over the life-course,
dependent on relationships and subject to a
particular depth of voicelessness
Retrospective Studies
• Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 (the
impacts of which on household poverty have
been extensively studied);
• The experience of transition in former Soviet
Republics in the early 1990s;
• Currency crises in Mexico (1995) and
Argentina (2002);
• African experiences with agricultural and oil
price fluctuations.
Predictions for current crisis:
approximately 30,000–50,000 excess
infant deaths in Africa in 2009 and
especially girls.
FAO (2009) projects that
undernourishment will grow by 8% in
LAC
In Asia if unaddressed (UNICEF):
increases in rates of maternal anaemia
by 10%–20% and prevalence of low
birth weight by 5%–10%, while rates of
childhood stunting could increase by
3%–7% and wasting by 8%–16%.
Trends in undernourishment and
projections for 2009
Effect on undernourishment
Primary school completion and child
mortality
Mexico – infant mortality increased from 5-7% 1995-6
(fell again after 1997)
Ethiopia – increase in cereal prices of 25% - increases
child malnutrition by 3-4%
Demographic health surveys in 59 countries highlight
negative association between changes in GDP and
infant mortality
Poorer CIS countries - basic school enrolment rates
declined 10% to 15% in early 1990s - Seven countries
still at risk of not meeting MDG 1
in Kazakhstan, pre-school enrollment fell from over
50% to 12%, from best in central Asia or the Caucasus
to among the worst
Increases in proportion of young children left home
alone across regions
Increased participation in work force in Mexico
In East Asia numbers of children living on the streets
increased in Indonesia and Thailand – at risk re sex
work, drug use and crime (ADB, 2006; Knowles et al.,
1999; Suharto, 2007).
Increase in child abandonment and numbers of
children taken into care in all four countries (ADB,
2000; Kim, 2004).
But Some Children Protected
In East Asia child mortality rates protected and
downward trends in child malnutrition
continued
Impacts on education in Latin America minimal.
Mexico - school attendance rates for children
of both sexes were unchanged and increased
for some age groups.
Both male and female children aged 15–18
had higher school attendance rates in 1996
than in 1994.
People protected education consumption and
State did to an extent.
Financial Crisis - General
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Dimensions
of the macroeconomic
environment
Remittances
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Trade and prices
(commodities
and services)
Financial
flows
Exchange Rates
Meso-level
effects of
the financial
crisis
Policy
responses
Functions
of the
household
Reduced access to
credit
Civil
society
policy
advocacy +
service
provision
Household
management
of assets
and investments
Declining investment
in public services
(education, health, nutrition,
water and sanitation, housing,
protection, care)
Aid
Fiscal space
Rising
unemployment,
under-employment,
declining working
conditions
Declining social capital;
rising social violence
Policy responses
(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy
pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services,
pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures,
labour policy)
Household
consumption
(food and services,
both quantity
and quality)
Household
labour
allocation
Reproduction,
nurture, and
care
Intra-household dynamics & household composition
Child-specific vulnerabilities
Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation
Political
economy
dynamics
Protection
(physical
and emotional)
& promotion
of well-being
Contribution to
community life
Trade level by sector
Source: World Bank (2009)
Remittance flows - LA
Financial Crisis - General
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Dimensions
of the macroeconomic
environment
Remittances
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Trade and prices
(commodities
and services)
Financial
flows
Exchange Rates
Meso-level
effects of
the financial
crisis
Policy
responses
Functions
of the
household
Reduced access to
credit
Civil
society
policy
advocacy +
service
provision
Household
management
of assets
and investments
Declining investment
in public services
(education, health, nutrition,
water and sanitation, housing,
protection, care)
Aid
Fiscal space
Rising
unemployment,
under-employment,
declining working
conditions
Declining social capital;
rising social violence
Policy responses
(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy
pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services,
pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures,
labour policy)
Household
consumption
(food and services,
both quantity
and quality)
Household
labour
allocation
Reproduction,
nurture, and
care
Intra-household dynamics & household composition
Child-specific vulnerabilities
Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation
Political
economy
dynamics
Protection
(physical
and emotional)
& promotion
of well-being
Contribution to
community life
Unemployment Current Crisis:
• ILO predicts unemployment could rise to 8.5% in 2009 with
an additional 28 million more vulnerable jobs in Africa
alone.
• Effects on export industries in the first instance
Bangladesh, China, Vietnam to name a few.
Characteristics of unemployment
•
•
•
•
•
•
In all regions, unemployment rose, often significantly and patterned by
age, gender, ethnicity and location:
Indonesia from 1.5% in 1996 – 5.6% in 1998
Argentina – 12.5% rise in unemployment in 2000
women’s greater employment in flexible and casual labour, specific
affected sectors and their reproductive work made them more
vulnerable
in Korea there were particularly high levels of job losses in clerical work
(-18.4%)
In Kyrgyzstan, the unemployment rate among women in the mid 2000s
was one and a half times that of men
Unemployment Characteristics
•
•
•
•
•
•
Young people very much affected: In Thailand - persons aged
below 30 (one-third of the labour force) accounted for 60% of the
increase in unemployment, whereas those over 50 experienced
little increase in unemployment
In 2003, urban young people aged under 30 made up 13% of
Kyrgyzstan’s total labor force, but one-quarter of all unemployed
people
Youth unemployment rates in CIS region are (2006) 31%, and a
relaxed definition, including discouraged youth, 41%
Mean age of first birth is 22–23 years in Russia – implications for
children’s early years in poverty
Other specific characteristics: rise in informal sector employment;
spatial effects, labour migration
Much of this in a context where there was a drop in value of real
wages, inflation and steep food or other commodity price hikes
Unemployment forecasts for select MENA countries
Financial Crisis - General
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Dimensions
of the macroeconomic
environment
Remittances
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Trade and prices
(commodities
and services)
Financial
flows
Exchange Rates
Meso-level
effects of
the financial
crisis
Policy
responses
Functions
of the
household
Reduced access to
credit
Civil
society
policy
advocacy +
service
provision
Household
management
of assets
and investments
Declining investment
in public services
(education, health, nutrition,
water and sanitation, housing,
protection, care)
Aid
Fiscal space
Rising
unemployment,
under-employment,
declining working
conditions
Declining social capital;
rising social violence
Policy responses
(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy
pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services,
pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures,
labour policy)
Household
consumption
(food and services,
both quantity
and quality)
Household
labour
allocation
Reproduction,
nurture, and
care
Intra-household dynamics & household composition
Child-specific vulnerabilities
Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation
Political
economy
dynamics
Protection
(physical
and emotional)
& promotion
of well-being
Contribution to
community life
Political Economy Dynamics
•
•
•
•
•
These shaped the reform process – both how deep the crisis was
felt and how quickly and effectively governments were able to
respond.
Malaysia – rejected austerity programme and continued to invest
in social services with positive effects.
Mexico – creative leadership made links between equity and
growth and garnered support to introduce new strategies with
crisis as motivation - Progresa/Oportunidades
Argentina - progressive social forces included a range of societybased actors. New measures significantly influenced by
participatory government-sponsored consultations Mesa de
Diálogo
Civil society activity in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Argentina
helped shape policy responses
Turning crisis to opportunity
• Civil society and social movements clearly had an
important role
• Even in less conducive environments
• In transition countries near universal child benefits
decimated – but pension benefits rose in many
countries during the same period
• Attributed to the relative political weakness of child
rights advocates as compared with pensioner groups
Social Protection and Aid
•
•
International bailout loan packages – important to
immediate crisis response
Aid policies played a key role in facilitating targeted social
protection programmes
–
–
–
–
–
•
Development programme for the poorest - Malaysia – World Bank
Social impact mitigation programme in Thailand – World Bank, ADB,
Miyazawa plan
Indonesia – social protection development programme -ADB
Mexico – Aid grew from 96.55 million in 1989 – 424 million in 1994 –
including support to social safety nets
Kyrgyzstan a model for comprehensive dev framework, PRSPs and
rewarded with significant aid flows
Less attention paid to child specific social protection
measures
Basic services and/or social protection
•
•
A clear cleavage in crisis response debates is investment
in basic services – pro or counter cyclical?
Also significant tensions in between cutting social
expenditure on basic services and increasing that on
targeted social protection
–
–
–
–
•
In Thailand there were significant cutbacks – reproductive and
preventative healthcare (including HIV prevention and education)
Indonesia health sector spending declined by 9% and 13% (97/8 and
98/9)
At the same time social protection measures introduced – also with
help of donors
Mexico and Argentina focused on targeted social protection and
attempted to maintain basic services with help from World Bank
Where both can be maintained there are significantly fewer
social impacts
Current crisis – protecting services
•
The extent to which investments in basic services are
being protected varies considerably across regions
–
–
–
•
By Contrast:
–
–
–
–
•
SSA – AfDB warns spending on basic needs threatened
Nigeria – 16% cut in education and 20 % in health
MENA and Kazakhstan – no indication of increasing spend in response
to crisis induced vulnerabilities (in both despite previous strong
economic growth basic needs spend low)
Thailand - Health budget protected through a special act
China $123 billion package introduced
Chile – counter-cyclical fiscal policy – 7.8% increase in social spending
Costa Rica – spend on housing and education increased
Social protection - although improved since last crisis responses so far limited
–
Some exceptions – Kazakhstan, Mexico, Bolivia among others
Attention to social protection
remains one of the key features
of successful policy responses –
but we can and should do much
more with our social protection
packages:
Financial Crisis - General
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Dimensions
of the macroeconomic
environment
Remittances
General regional and
international macroeconomic health
Trade and prices
(commodities
and services)
Financial
flows
Exchange Rates
Meso-level
effects of
the financial
crisis
Policy
responses
Functions
of the
household
Reduced access to
credit
Civil
society
policy
advocacy +
service
provision
Household
management
of assets
and investments
Declining investment
in public services
(education, health, nutrition,
water and sanitation, housing,
protection, care)
Aid
Fiscal space
Rising
unemployment,
under-employment,
declining working
conditions
Declining social capital;
rising social violence
Policy responses
(Fiscal stimulus, trade policy, monetary policy, aid policy
pre-existing and crisis-response investment in basic services,
pre-existing social protection infrastructure and crisis-specific measures,
labour policy)
Household
consumption
(food and services,
both quantity
and quality)
Household
labour
allocation
Reproduction,
nurture, and
care
Intra-household dynamics & household composition
Child-specific vulnerabilities
Deprivations of rights to survival, development, protection, participation
Political
economy
dynamics
Protection
(physical
and emotional)
& promotion
of well-being
Contribution to
community life
Micro impacts
Gender relations change – a shift in the locus of power
Migrants are returning home – some unemployed
Increased unemployment in general
Men and women are taking on two or more jobs
Some women are taking on paid work for the first time
Children are left home alone or are neglected
In some cases children are working and some are withdrawn from
school
Mental ill health is on the increase
Domestic tension and violence increases
Community capacity to nurture and protect is compromised
Social Protection – education, health
and nutrition
•
Pre-existing social protection systems and tailored crisisspecific responses - decisive in mitigating impacts on
children’s educational, health and nutritional outcomes.
–
–
–
•
Scholarship programmes and social health insurance initiatives in East
Asia,
Cash transfers in Latin America and
Public works in Latin America and Africa
BUT limited attention to child protection and care:
–
–
–
Despite rises in intra-household tensions and violence no increased
investment in related social services
Shockingly limited response to rising rates of mental ill-health and drug
and substance abuse in East Asia and transition country contexts
Despite starkly gendered effects of unemployment, under-employment
and household poverty no measures to:
• address women’s time poverty
• support women’s greater responsibility for care and domestic
work, for instance through subsidised childcare services
Social Protection decisive in
mitigating impacts but neglects child
protection, nurture and care
• Political economy
dimensions
• Aid – linked to social
protection
• Counter-cyclical
investment in social
services
• Social protection linked
to child ‘protection’,
nurture and care
• Data – timely,
systematic, age and
gender disaggregated
Safeguarding and progressing
children’s rights
Mainstreaming
children into
economic crisis
responses