Transcript El Reloj de los Ciclos Económicos de México

Why did INEGI
implement the
business cycle
clock of Mexico?
Eduardo Sojo Garza-Aldape
National Institute of Statistics and Geography, Mexico
February 21st, 2011
New York
As an element of an overall strategy…
To provide users with a better visualization
tool of economic and social phenomena.
To
improve
the
estimation
and
dissemination
of
short-term
economic
indicators.
To follow what we
international practices.
consider
the
best
To provide users with a better visualization
tool of economic and social phenomena…
“One
of
the
best
techniques
for
understanding data is to visualize the
numbers as a picture. This can make it far
easier to see a pattern or it can expose
patterns that might otherwise have been
concealed.”
Making Data Meaningful, United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe.
To provide users with a better visualization
tool of economic and social phenomena…
We have introduced:
• Gapminder to visualize regional historical
data.
• Extensive use of interactive digital
mapping.
• Statistics and geography for kids.
• Easy access to short-term economic
indicators in a graph.
• Business cycle clock.
To improve the estimation and dissemination
of short-term economic indicators…
“The financial and economic crisis has
produced an impact on statistics by pointing
out the need for statistical information going
beyond GDP and complementing it with other
macroeconomic indicators more or less
directly related to GDP.”
Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat. Flash Estimates of GDP, Third
International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle
Indicators.
To improve the estimation and dissemination
of short-term economic indicators…
We have:
• Monthly indicator of Economic Activity
(“monthly GDP”).
• Monthly consumer and producer sentiment
indicators.
• Seasonally adjusted short-term indicators.
• We are working in a flash estimate of
quarterly GDP.
• We
developed
the
Business
cycle
indicators: the coincident indicator and the
leading indicator.
The Coincident Indicator
Is a composite indicator showing the
general state of the economy. It consists of:
A monthly disaggregation of quarterly GDP
Industrial production index
Retail sales
Workers registered at the Mexican Institute of
Social Security
• Urban unemployment rate
• Total imports
•
•
•
•
The Leading Indicator
The leading indicator anticipates the direction of
the coincident indicator, particularly the turning
points (peaks and troughs). Its components
are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
The manufacturing employment trend
Non-oil exports
Price index of the Mexican stock exchange
Real exchange rate
Interest rate
Standard & Poor's 500 Index (USA)
System of Cyclical Indicators:
Coincident and Leading
105
Coincident
104
103
102
Leading
1981.05
(-6)
1984.06
(-10)
1987.07
1994.02
(-6)
1992.03
(-1)
2007.08
(-9)
2000.05
(-3)
1997.11
101
2004.03
100
1992.12
1990.12
(-10)
99
2005.04
1998.11
98
1986.07
(-6)
2003.02
(-7)
97
96
95
1982.09
(-7)
1995.04
(-4)
2009.02
(-3)
EMMJSNEMMJ SNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJ SNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJ SNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJSNEMMJ SNEMMJ SNEMMJ SNEMMJ SNEMMJ SN
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
To follow what we consider the best
international practices
“Who gets close to a good tree,
gets a good shadow”
To follow what we consider the best
international practices
OECD
Eurostat
Statistics
Netherlands
Users´ reaction
“The Business Cycle Clock is a very attractive way
to present information.
Thanks to the clock and the dashboard, you can
interpret at a glance what is happening in the
Mexican economy.”
Macario Schettino
Economic analyst and journalist
“One of the most interesting news that INEGI
released this year is called the Business Cycle Clock
of Mexico.”
Enrique Quintana
Economic analyst and journalist
Users´ reaction
“The Business Cycle Clock is a great gift. It is like
an Xbox 360 for analysts.
“It is useful, with high technologic content, fun,
easy to use, with hard data, available on the
INEGI´s website”.
Pedro Alonso
Economic analyst and journalist
INEGI´s website
Why did INEGI
implement the
business cycle
clock of Mexico?
Eduardo Sojo Garza-Aldape
National Institute of Statistics and Geography, Mexico
February 21st, 2011
New York