Transcript 38 - United Nations Statistics Division

Republic of Zambia
Central Statistical Office
ZAMBIA PRACTICES IN
MANUFACTURING STATISTICS
Manufacturing Statistics workshop
4th to 7th May 2009
Nkandu Kabibwa
Presentation Outline
• Overview of Zambia
• Organisational structure of the CSO
• Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and
produced by CSO ( Focus on IIP)
• Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP
• Data Sources for IIP
• Periodicity of the IIP
• Main users of IIP Zambia
• Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing
statistics (IIP)
• Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics
• Way forward
Zambia - Geography
Zambia - Demographics
Surrounded by 8 other countries
Total area: 752, 000 km2
Populated by 12.5 million people
Copper remains the main export (70 %)
Per capita GDP: US$1,181.53 (2008 prelim.)
Economic growth rate: 6.0 % (2008 prelim.)
and averaged around 5.8% in the past 5 years
• Inflation rate: 14.3 % (April 2009)
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Organizational Structure of the CSO
• The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments
under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP)
• Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of
Zambia to produce official statistics
• The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial
offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia
• The CSO is divided into 4 subject matter divisions namely;
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Agriculture & Environment Statistics
Economic & finance Statistic
IT & dissemination
Population and demography
• Each Division is headed by a deputy Director
Economic Statistics Division
DEPUTY
DIRECTOR
NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS
EXTERNAL TRADE
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
PRICES &
CONSUMPTION
STUDIES
PUBLIC
FINANCE
LIVING
CONDITIONS
The industrial statistics branch is mandated to collect
and compile manufacturing statistics
Current Manufacturing statistics compiled
and produced by CSO (a focus on IIP)
• The quarterly Index of Industrial
Production (IIP)
• This is a quarterly volume index which
covers
» manufacturing,
» mining and quarrying, and
» electricity.
• The base for this index is the year 2000
• Data on products is collected by industry
(at 4 digit ISIC level)
Methodology of collecting and compiling of
the IIP
• The IIP is computed using a base weighted Laspeyres Index.
• The weights for the IIP were derived using turnover(value of sales) ration
attributable to each industry.
•Currently the manufacturing industry has the biggest weight in the IIP (51.1%)
followed by Mining & quarrying (35%) and electricity (13.9%)
• Out of a population of about 1041 units(Establishments) stratified by ISIC
revision 2, a sample of about 168 units was selected
•This sample contributed about 80 % of the total turnover in the manufacturing
industry
•Big establishment (ie with turnover above 2 Billion ZMK) were covered on a 100%
basis
•The sample selected mainly covered 4 of the 9 provinces in Zambia.
Data Instrument
Sources for IIP
Primary Sources (only market producers are covered)
Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments
in 4 provinces using a simple questionnaire.
This is a one paged form which is designed to collect
data on:
•Number of operatives
•Compensation of operatives
•Quantities of manufactured products
•Value of manufactured products
•Value of sales
•Units of products
•Expected production in the next quarter
•Maximum capacity of production per quarter
Periodicity of the IIP
Computed Quarterly
It is compiled within 90 days of the
end of the quarter
Disseminated at 2 digit ISIC revision 2
Level, mainly through the Monthly
Bulletin of Statistics
Main users of IIP Zambia
National Account
• The IIP for the manufacturing sector feeds directly into the
compilation of the GDP
• Currently manufacturing contributes about 10% of the total
GDP at market prices.
MOFNp
• Used by the Ministry of Finance and National Planning to
monitor changes, on a short term basis, in the
manufacturing sector
Shortcomings in the compilation of
manufacturing statistics (IIP)
• Remote benchmark year for the IIP (2000)
• Establishments often change their line of
production
• Only the market producers are covered
Other Data Sources for Manufacturing
Statistics
Secondary Sources
• Living condition Monitoring Survey(LCMS) for
household based manufacturing
(LCMS is conducted every 2 years)
• Turnover from the VAT register
• Register of establishment (Labour statistics
Branch)
Way Forward
• The CSO has resolved to start conducting an
Economic Census every 5 years
This will ensure that the IIP is rebased every 5years
Detailed surveys like the Census of Industrial
production will be conducted within the framework of
the economic census.
Will be classified using the ISIC revision 4 classification
The EC will form a basis to start computing other
variables like the producer price index (PPI)
Way Forward Continued
• Beginning last year CSO has started
conducting an annual Economic Survey (AES)
This survey has been designed for calculating annual
GDP for all the sector including manufacturing sector.
Feeds directly into the compilation of GDP
The inaugural AES is being analyzed and will be
disseminated later this year
• The End