Transcript PPT
SOSC 111 - Science Technology and Society Today: Lesson 25 Do Statistics Lie? December 2, 1998 Dr. Vincent Duffy - IEEM http://wwwieem.ust.hk/dfaculty/duffy/111 email: [email protected] 1 Ex1. Fall Fashion Survey says ‘90% of college students say Levi’s 501 jeans are ‘popular’ on campus’ Students on 100 campuses were asked to choose which of the following were popular on campus: Levi’s 501 jeans T-shirts with graphics 1960’s type clothing Licra/spandex clothing Overalls (like farmers wear) Patriotic themed clothing (like stars & stripes) Decorated denim Printed Pull-on beach pants Long sleeved hooded T-shirts 2 What is misleading about the claim? Levi’s jeans are the only choice for jeans (important because the jeans ad implies comparison to other jeans) It was a Levi’s sponsored survey. The statement doesnt say 90% wear Levi’s it only says that 90% think they are ‘popular’ and this is compared to other mostly ‘non’ jeans clothing 3 ex.2 related to the QOTD Q1. #1 How effective do you think the Black Flag roach disk is at killing roaches? 30% ___, 50% ___, 70%___ 90%___ Q1a. #2 A roach disk is a type of product that poisons a roach slowly. The dying roach returns to the nest and after it dies is eaten by other roaches. In turn, these roaches become poisoned and die. How effective do you think the Black Flag roach disk is at killing roaches? 30% ___, 50% ___, 70%___ 90%___ Q2. The Black Flag example shows what? 4 Remember: where does STS data come from? Experts and many times surveys Who are the experts? many times the sales people and manufacturers are representatives to the consumer they are the experts, but can misuse the ‘trust’ put in them by the customer 5 ex3. A US Air advertisement stated: US Air had the best on-time record of ‘any of the seven largest airlines’ However, the eighth largest airline at the time, PanAm had the best on-time record 6 ex4. A new formula and taste tests New coke, old coke Coke in early 1980’s developed a new formula to adjust for the success of competitor Pepsi 190,000 Taste tests, costing millions of $ showed that people liked new coke better However, those that voted did not know it would replace, not supplement old Coke The taste tests were done ‘blind’ to eliminate bias however, buyers do not buy that way note: w/out carmel coloring, people mistake coke for sprite Old coke was removed at first, and then brought back after many complaints 7 ex5.Safety What car is well known for and associated with safety? Volvo In 1990, at a ‘Monster Truck’ competition in Vermont, USA, a Volvo remained relatively undisturbed (not wrecked) An advertisement attempted to illustrate the safety of the Volvo by recreating the event 8 Insert Volvo ad here 9 How did they show it? However, to recreate the event on film The advertising agency/film crew/Volvo cut the tops of the surrounding cars so that they would collapse more easily And..... The Volvo was fixed and reinforced with steel beams inside. As well, a wooden frame was inserted in the passenger compartment The photo you see is the one from the ad The State of Texas sued Volvo, they settled out of court 10 Q.3. Do statistics lie? Are the studies for advertising lies or just misleading? is it done purposely? Give an example of deception in advertising of technology and science. Q.4. Why doesn’t the government do something about it? First - Course evaluations please fill out both….why two? course is jointly taught by SOSC and ENGG faculty we will continue the discussion including Q.3 and Q.4 at :45 min past hour 11 Q.4 Why doesn’t the government do something about it? Though in some instances the government will try to control the advertising claims ex. smoking ‘Smoking can kill’ only a small number of ads can be monitored, usually of national scope because of cost and time for the effort focus in the past on those that ‘could mislead’ now usually focus on those ‘likely to mislead’ The government doesn’t have the capacity to deal with all misleading ads. 12 Friday Last lecture Continue the discussion ….do statistics lie? data and evidence in the courtroom similarities between research for the courtroom and advertising differences between research for law and research for science Monday review for final and return papers 13