Transcript PowerPoint 0.3 mb

Today’s Forests
Tomorrow’s Markets
March 31/09 to April 1/09
Sault Ste Marie, Michigan
Global Trends in the Forestry Sector
By Frank Dottori
FADCO Consulting Inc.
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.1 Canada
 Eastern – Overcut
 Western – BC-Beetle
 Central – Manitoba – Excess/soft wood
– Saskatchewan – Excess/hard wood
– Alberta – Excess/hard wood
2
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.2 US
 West – Limited/ENV.
 North East – Overcut
 South East – Balance
 Central - Overcut
3
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.3 Europe
 Scans – Short Fall
 West – Balanced
 East – Excess/Old
 Russia – Excess/Old
4
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.4 South America
 Chile – Balanced
 Brazil – Plantation Growth
 Other – Plantation Growth
5
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.5 Asia
 South East Asia – Plantation Growth
 Indonesia – Overcut
6
1.0 Status of Today’s Forests
1.6 General
 World will move to plantation forests with hybrids. Sam, Sea
 Little growth in North America and Europe
7
2.0 Today’s Markets
2.1 Lumber
 Mostly North America and Northern Europe for housing
 Little in rest of the world due to climate, culture, insects
8
2.0 Today’s Markets
2.2 Today’s Markets
 Building products, Engineered wood growing as above
9
2.0 Today’s Markets
2.3 Pulp and Paper News
 Continuing decline in usage/capita in developed countries
 Electronic/high tech age
 Growth by volume as standard of life/education improves – 2nd and 3rd
world.
10
2.0 Today’s Markets
2.4 Personal Products
 Continued growth as quality of life improves
11
2.0 Today’s Markets
2.5 Packaging
 Growth driven by health and quality concerns
 Thin/Less/Recycle
 Limits tonnage not surface
12
3.0 Tomorrow’s Forests
3.1 – Plantation Type Forests in South America and South East
Asia
 Supply commodity Pulp
13
3.0 Tomorrow’s Forests
3.2 Manage Forests Europe/North America
 Environmental Pressures
 Certification FSC other
 Multiple use
14
3.0 Tomorrow’s Forests
3.3 Climate Change
 Species change in natural forests
 Harvesting issues – Northern Canada
 Disease
 Insects
15
3.0 Tomorrow’s Forests
3.4 New Vision
 Solar Powered – Natural
 Carbon Cycle/No GHG
 Renewable, Sustainable
16
3.0 Tomorrow’s Forests
3.5 Cost of Wood
 Fossil fuel alternative
 Will increase
 Energy Equivalent
17
4.0 Tomorrow's Markets
4.1 - Lumber
 Will remain most profitable sector for North America and Europe and grow
moderately
18
4.0 Tomorrow's Markets
4.2 Engineered Wood
 Will grow with increase use of Hard Wood species
19
4.0 Tomorrow's Markets
4.3 Pulp and Paper
 Moderate to slow world growth
 Decline North America and Western Europe
 Growth South East Asia but will be moderate due to technology
20
4.0 Tomorrow's Markets
4.4 Tissue/Packaging
 Continued Growth
21
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.1 Forests are Solar Energy Power
 Knowledgeable Environmentalists and Politicians will soon recognize this
(solar cells, batteries, pollution)
 Replacement for fossil fuels with no GHG effect
 Renewable/Sustainable/Come with battery/Storage
 Industry needs to exploit virtues of forests
22
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.2 Energy
 Biomass to electricity and heat power
 Technology available need equivalent support to other sources
 Wood to gas/liquid fuels
 Still technical and economic challenges
 Rapid progress, lots of R&D dollars spent (3-5 yrs)
 Big players
 Be careful
23
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.2 Energy Cont’d
 Biomass to Liquid Fuels
 Very Difficult at technical/economic level (5 to 10 yrs)
 Biomass to pellets
 Technology and economics acceptable depending on alternative fuels, cost and
legislation (now).
24
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.3 Wood to Biochemical's
 Lignin, Phenols, Acidic Acid, Alcohols, Polyethylene etc.etc.
 Challenging technically and economically (3-10 yrs)
25
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.4 Will it Happen
 Yes but watch the hype
 Major Challenges
 Lots of dollars committed
26
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.5 Do We Need It
 Yes, if we believe GHG threatens planet
 Nuclear and Forests are the major options
 Forests are best by far
 Problem only 10% of solution
27
5.0 Tomorrow’s Potential Markets
5.6 What is Greenfield Doing
 Two prong approach
Thermo chemical – Gasification
Biochemical – enzymes/yeast
 Objective: Transportable fuels and Biochemical’s
 Challenging but progressing well
28
6.0 Conclusion
 Life comes from the sun and the earth
 Cellulose (trees and vegetation) are the carbon cycle or life cycle
 Forests will be Forever as long as the planet exists
 Our survival depends on forests
 Lets protect them, use them wisely
 Help save the planet
 Solve economic issues today by planting trees for the future
29