Transcript COUGER Power Market Simulator

Economic Assessment of
Generation & Transmission
Expansion Scenarios in WECC
PacifiCorp RTO project team
Presentation to SSG-WI Planning WG
PDX Business Center, 7/31/02
Models used in Power Market analysis
A wide range - some old, some new...
• Econometric models
- stochastic models that correlate trades and prices to
time of year, weather or hydro conditions, fuel price & supply, etc. Used for
predicting forward price curves, spark spreads, price spikes, etc. For M&A
analysis, project assessment, for assessing credit risk, risk management, trade
analytics and support, etc, etc
• Game theory models
- KBS-based models that simulate traders’ behavior
(always within the rules!). Used for developing/testing trading strategies; for
stress testing of market designs, detecting/monitoring unusual trades, etc.
• Power market models - that optimize centrally-dispatched markets; or
minimize traders’ production costs in meeting their load service obligations within
transmission rights; or price transmission rights/congestion rents, etc.
• System planning tools - for generator interconnection design and impact
studies; for network expansion planning, for computing flowpath ratings, etc
Network models in Power Market analysis
Single Area
Low
• OK for small control areas
• No congestion
• Ignores transmission
Simple
‘Bubble’ view
OVEC
13.65
EKPC
13.78
LG&EE
12.66
MIDOIL
107
COAL-B
102
COAL-A
101
ERIKLOAD
108
ANNELOAD
105
EASTIE-1
REACTOR
110 106
WESTIE-1
103
MARYLOAD
104
MIDTIE-1
109
EASTIE-2
212
MIDTIE-2
211
WESTIE-2
224
CARIOCA
220
HYDRO
222
BIGCOIL
213
BIGCOAL
223
KUEN
13.59
MIDCOAL
216 ADDON
225
VIKING
MIDCOALP 219
215 CONDENS
214
Very complex
All network constraints
Only way to track line flows
Still an approximation...
WVPA
13.41
NUKE-B
221
•
•
•
•
CG&E
14.74
NUKE-A
218
NOLOAD
217
Complete network
PSI
13.89
Complexity
Major flowpaths only
Transportation model
Better, but…
Power doesn’t flow like that!
Accuracy
•
•
•
•
Good
High
Trade-off in Market vs Network modeling
High
Trading
models
Ideal combination
Sophistication of
Market model
(doesn’t yet exist)
Production
simulation models
PSI
13.89
CG&E
14.74
OVEC
13.65
EKPC
13.78
LG&EE
12.66
KUEN
13.59
Power
market
models
MIDOIL
107
WVPA
13.41
System
planning
models
Low
Simple
Complex
Network model
Power Market simulation overview
User specified scenarios
Generation
•
•
•
•
size, capability
costs (fuel, O&M)
availability
outages
Transmission
•
•
•
•
network data
constraints
outages
operation rules
Market Modeling
Clearing Prices
Revenues/rents
Market Simulation
Capacity factors
Scenario Analysis
Flows/Congestion
Load
•
•
•
•
distribution
hourly variation
max MWh, MW
annual growth
Additional Scenarios
Goal: To predict the economic and physical
performance of large power networks
The heart of ABB-MS
DC Optimal Power Flow
Transmission Constrained Economic Dispatch
with linearized power flow model
Why Linearize?
•
•
•
•
Speed: Enables fast Linear Program (LP) solution
Convergence: LP always a convex problem
Accuracy: Flows on HV circuits modeled well
Acceptability: Generally recognised by Industry
Transmission Network Constraints
• Thermal Line Limits
– Maximum MW on any line
– Percentage of MVA rating
• HVDC
– Fixed or controllable
– Maximum flow: different for each direction
– Limits on MW changes per hour
• Phase Shifter
– MW Capacity
– Angular limits
– Limits on angle changes per hour
• Interface Constraints
– Limit on net flows on selected lines
– Models a variety of operating constraints:

Reliability, Angular/Voltage stability, Area Interchange Limits
Transmission Network Constraints
Combined Generation & Transmission Nomograms
• Interface limits can be a function of generation variables
– Online capacity
– Reserve capability, etc
Total Flow From North
• Example: Southern California import nomogram
Limit for online G1
Limit for online G2 > G1
Total Flow From East
Output Summary
Output
Useful for analyzing
Spot Prices
 Generation Location
 Trading indicators
 Zonal Pricing, Congestion
Identification
Generation Dispatch
 Generation Asset Analysis
Network Flows
 Transmission Asset Utilization
 Congestion Identification
Shadow Prices
 Severity of Congestion
 Transmission Expansion
Where we’re at with ABB-MS
• Hand over to Kurt
• various plots of Y2004 flowpath flows, generator nodal price
differences, load factors,etc
• on-line demo of selected results
Keys to successful use of COUGER
Easy to change data
• Large Base Case data set +
Small, modular, incremental changes
• Similar data stored/displayed together
• Describe changes from Base Case to User
Easily interpreted results
• Summary file: Physical and Financial Performance, with
or without time element
• Summary file: highlight important constraints
• Graphical representation of results
• Case comparison: Summary and Graphical
Keys to successful use of COUGER
Flexibility: User selects which
• hours to run
– entire year, one hour, sampled weeks, etc
• constraints to model (accuracy vs. time)
– Monitored Lines
– Interface constraints
– Individually, or as Groups via database filters
• results to view
– Clearing Price for selected buses
– Flows, Shadow Prices for selected lines and flowpaths
– Total generation, load and average clearing price for selected areas
Total Flexibility via User-controlled proprietary database
Tasks to complete Planning WG’s analysis...
Given the necessary data, the steps would be:
• Set up a complete data set for Y2008: generators (capacity, costs, availability);
loads by control area (annual energy, monthly maximum demand and hourly
demand profile); and transmission network (a complete WSCC system or other as
specified by WG)
• Run economic analyses using ABB-MS for a set of scenarios (fuel prices, new
generator type and location, wet/dry hydro production) as specified by the WG
• Report to the Planning WG, on a timetable to be mutually agreed, the prospective
resource utilization, system flows, congestion incidence and cost, and other agreed
economic indicators
• Repeat the above analysis for Y2018, incorporating a specified set of transmission
expansion options, taking account of agreed load growth and generator expansion/
fuel price options
What the Planning WG would need to do...
• Provide a complete transmission network data (e.g. in the form of a WSCC
loadflow case in PSS/E format), circuit thermal ratings and interface/flowpath
ratings, phase-shifter and HVDC link data.
• Provide load data (monthly energy and max demand, hourly load profile by control
area/utility, annual growth rates). Dispatchable load data.
• Provide generator data (type, capacity, heat rates, ramp rates, outage rates, O&M,
and fuel costs, hydro production MW/hr in wet and dry conditions).
• Specify the new generators (type, location, commissioning date, economic data
and expected performance data) to be added
• Specify the transmission expansions to be studied (terminations, circuit data,
ratings and commissioning date), and the combination/sequence of generation/
transmission projects selected to be studied.
• Also, the Planning WG would have to compute the effect on interface/ flowpath
ratings of the specified combination of generation/transmission expansion projects
that are selected to be studied.
We are content to leave the interpretation of analysis results
and the compilation of all reports to the Planning WG