Transcript Lean Aerospace Initiative Plenary Workshop Technology

Technology Roadmaps and Technology
Insertion
February 3, 2000
Presented By:
Angie Kelic
[email protected]
Research Sponsored By The Lean Aerospace Initiative
Product Development Focus Team
Outline
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Motivation
Technology Insertion
Key Questions
Hypothesis
Technology Roadmaps Study
Theoretical Basis
Preliminary Results
Next Steps
PD Kelic 01272000-2 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Motivation
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The problem
– Long product development timelines
– Obsolescence in newly operational systems
– Difficulty in upgrade programs
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Varying technology timescales (clockspeeds)
– Slower developing (example: airframe)
– Faster developing (example: electronics)
PD Kelic 01272000-3 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
What We Do Know About
Technology Insertion
Charted territory:
 Cost/benefit analyses
 NASA Technology Insertion Milestones and
Technology Readiness Levels
Where the problems lie:
 Technologies not developed with current
application in mind
 Unexpected impacts on other parts of the system
 No well established technology insertion process
 Incorrect assessment of technology “readiness”
PD Kelic 01272000-4 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Key Questions
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How can knowledge of new technology be
brought to bear on the product development
process?
How can technology readiness be determined
effectively and consistently?
How does one determine the side effects of
introducing new technology?
“Our technology roadmaps tell us when to insert
new technology”
PD Kelic 01272000-5 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Hypothesis
Technology roadmaps can be used to effectively
predict technology performance and manage
technology insertion
PD Kelic 01272000-6 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Technology Roadmaps Study
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Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?
How are roadmaps developed and by whom?
Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?
Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?
Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?
PD Kelic 01272000-7 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Theoretical Basis
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Clockspeed - Fine
– “fruit flies”
– supply chain management
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Technology forecasting - Irvine and Martin
– Three levels of forecasting in industry
– macro-level: broad trends, typically conducted by
government agencies - DoD
– sector-level forecasts: typically conducted by industrial
associations, or multi-client consultancy organizations Sematech, NCAT, AIAA, IEEE
– specific research forecasts relating to particular
technologies or new product lines - companies
PD Kelic 01272000-8 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Do Roadmaps Exist?
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YES!!
Two types:
– investment direction roadmaps
– how to spend research dollars
– detailed technology roadmaps
– predicting technology characteristics
– combination of Delphi method and historical trend analysis
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Varying levels of implementation
PD Kelic 01272000-9 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Technology Roadmaps Study
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Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?
How are roadmaps developed and by whom?
Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?
Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?
Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?
PD Kelic 01272000-10 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Detailed Technology Roadmaps
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Experts on the technology make the roadmap
Information from array of sources
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trade journals
information from suppliers
R&D
DoD, trade organization roadmaps
Review
– peers, suppliers, upper management
PD Kelic 01272000-11 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Roadmapping Process
1. Gather
2. Develop
3.Review
Information
4. Refine
5. Distribute
6. Use?
PD Kelic 01272000-12 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Technology Roadmaps Study





Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?
How are roadmaps developed and by whom?
Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?
Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?
Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?
PD Kelic 01272000-13 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Are They Effective in
Prediction?
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Gather old roadmaps
– various technologies
– roadmaps and updates
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Examine variance in predictions
Examine actual state of the art for predicted year
Example:
Semiconductor Industry Association Roadmaps
PD Kelic 01272000-14 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SIA Roadmaps for
Semiconductors
Power Supply Voltage
3.5
1994
1997
1998
1999
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
PD Kelic 01272000-15 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Next Steps
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Validate and refine the process description
Gather more roadmap data
– Determine accuracy
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Examine variance and attempt a correlation with
technology characteristics
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Participants to date: HP, Raytheon, ACC, Textron,
AlliedSignal, Boeing, Sematech, NorthropGrumman, Saab
PD Kelic 01272000-16 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Technology Roadmaps Study





Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?
How are roadmaps developed and by whom?
Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?
Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?
Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?
PD Kelic 01272000-17 ©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology