Transcript Dist. System Analysis for CA. High RSP Study

III SIGMAT
Bijoy Chatt, Ph.D, June 11, 2013
A Balanced Approach of Asset Management – Methods and Tools
KEMA has been serving clients for more than 80 years
Covering the entire energy value chain
Established in 1927, Arnhem, the Netherlands
 Three primary business lines:
– Consulting
– Testing
– Certification
 Over 1900 professionals in more than 20 countries
 Annual revenue of $300+ million
Independent experts to the global energy and utility industry
2
Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc.
2
Background: Asset Management
Electric networks are capital-intensive businesses.
A high level of investment is required to provide the
asset and infrastructure needed for the system and
for the equipment required to sustain and maintain it
in a safe and reliable condition.
Asset management is an all-embracing term used to
describe the activities undertaken through the life of
the asset to achieve stated business objectives.
3
Asset Management: Balancing Critical Perspectives
Asset management includes a diverse range of actions and
perspectives that should work synchronously
Financial
Safety
Regulatory
4
4
Industry Trends and Needs






Aging infrastructure for many utilities
Maintaining or improving reliability levels
Quality of material and equipment being purchased
Cash and budget pressures
Regulatory uncertainty or transitions
Transformational technologies such as storage, EV’s,
etc.
 Mergers and acquisitions
 Smart Grid – sensors, AMI, communications, back end
integration, etc.
5
The Asset Management Transition
No Asset
Management
Partial Asset Management
Program
Full Delivery Asset
Management Program
Mature Asset
Management
Customer
satisfaction
action plan
Design and
implement
human asset
plan
No
plans
for AM
program
Plans
for AM
program
Build
standards for
system
design &
performance
Develop
Projects
- replacements
- O&M
- capacity
Establish
company-wide
planning and
risk- analysis
cycles
Most Utilities
Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc.
6
Prioritize
capital and
O&M projects
based on senior
leadership
input on goals
Utilize
performance
metrics to
create
accountability
Balanced Approach to Optimum Reliability
The Industry Best Practice
Measure Performance
Create performance metrics and audit processes
to hold managers and vendors accountable. Validate
benefits from expenditures for regulators.
Reliability and Safety
at
Optimal Cost
Reliable Data
Rigorous Analysis
Obtain full benefit from existing outage
technology and human processes.
Leverage massive increase in data from
Smart Grid.
Drive performance with what data you
have today. Prepare for use of massive
increase in data from Smart Grid.
Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc.
7
7
7
KEMA Asset Management Tools for Optimization
Transmission Specific Tool
ABM
DRAKE
Optimized
Asset
Management
AMP
CASCADE
&
CARE
Transmission Specific Tool
8
8
Equipment Failure and Bathtub Curve
 If an equipment survives its early phase (infant mortality phase), it is likely
that there is no manufacturing defect
 During the useful life period, the equipment’s failure rate tend to be
constant
 As equipment ends its useful life and enters in to wear out period, its
failure rate tends to increase, often exponentially
9
9
ABM – Asset Based Modeling
Asset Replacement Planning Tool
 Tool– Quantitative methods for
predicting future asset performance
and end of life based upon historical
data and trends
 Benefits – More accurate and
defendable capital projections to
regulators and investors for asset
replacements
Output
Showing failure of
Equipment over time
10
Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc.
10
10
11
Cascade – CARE: Asset Maintenance
 CASCADE– Data repository and
analysis tools to evaluate maintenance
strategies, coupled with a system to
ensure the proper execution of those
strategies. The output can be used for
real time response to emerging
problems or the development of long
term plans.
 CARE interfaces with CASCADE and
with database that stores operational
data (SCADA, EMS etc.). Provides
near-real time operational information.
 Benefits – Implementation of optimal
maintenance programs
12
Maintenance Optimization
Relative Risk
0.35
0.3
The right resources at
the right time
Focus
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
A
B
C
20%
D F
G H
I
J
K
L
M N O
100%
Source – Department of Mechanical Engineering Tokyo
13
P
Q R
S
Device
Pitfalls of Time Based Maintenance
Fail to prevent functional failure
Maintenance
Complete 2010
Breaker “B”
Maintenance
Scheduled 2013
Reduced
capabilities
Functional
Failure
Did not
interrupt
fault current
Breaker “A”
Interrupts
numerous
high current
faults
P-F Interval
Time
Two Breakers – Time Based Maintenance • 3 year cycle
14
Cascade – CARE: Asset Maintenance
Raw Data
(diagnostic tests, on-line monitoring & operational data)
Data Collection
Raw data and/or condition codes
Empirical
Knowledge
Analysis
via algorithms
Alerts
Modify sampling rate,
further diagnostic testing,
data mining, install monitoring
Corrective Action:
Remove from service
Feedback
Loop
Learn
From Corrective Action and
data analysis
15
Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example
Input
C2H4 has exceeded 50PPM
Input
Ratio of C02/C0 is < 5
Load exceeds 80% of
nameplate
•
No change in
sampling rate
•
Notify subject
matter expert
•
Sampling rate set to
6 months
•
Notify subject matter
expert
•
Request operations
to reduce load
•
Initiate data mining
exercise
Output
11/01/05
Input
Notify subject matter
expert
Output
2/27/04
C2H4 has exceeded 100 PPM
CO has exceed 700 PPM
•
Output
6/16/06
TOA
CASCADE
16
Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example
Input
Input
Data mining has revealed
transformer failed factory DGA
H2 has exceeded 100 PPM
CH4 has exceeded 120 PPM
C2H6 has exceeded 65 PPM
•
Heightened
awareness await
next DGA results
•
Notify subject
matter expert
•
Sampling rate set to
2 months
•
Now that thresholds
exceeded ratios will
be automatically
calculated
Output
Output
12/27/05
TOA
CASCADE
17
Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example
Input
Ratio of C2H4/C2H6 >1<4
Ratio CH4/H2 <1
Output
•
Notify subject
matter expert
•
Resample in 10
days to calculate
generation rate
•
Notify subject
matter expert
•
Plan to install
mobile and move
unit to repair shop
07/02/06
Input
Generation rate of C2H4
exceeds 0.5% per day
2/17/06
TOA
Output
CASCADE
18
CHR Relative Ranking
A one time overall assessment of equipment condition at
a specific time based on selected parameters to
determine CHR number (initial) (historical data)
Criticality = location determines safety, environmental,
financial, and regulatory consequences.
Health = probability of failure based on manufacture
quality, operational stress, results of predictive
maintenance tests (historical)
Risk = Health (probability) x Criticality (consequence)
19
Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example
Transformer Watch List View
20
Asset Health Condition: CASCADE & CARE
Asset Data
(Non-real
Time)
CASCADE
CARE
Near
Real Time
Asset Condition
Data
Pi
Asset
Health
Report
Inspection and
Test Results
DGA, DTA, TOA, Infra Red, Inspection Data
21
Quarterly Report: Replacement/Retirement
Equipment
Week 1 Week 4
Week 8
Week 12
Action/
Week
16
Action/
Week 20
Transformer #1
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #2
Normal Normal
Watch
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #3
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #4
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #5
Watch
Watch
Watch
Maint.
Order
Plan for
Retire
Transformer #6
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Watch
Normal
Transformer #7
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #8
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #9
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Transformer #10
Watch
Normal
Normal
Watch
Watch
Transformer #11
Normal Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Watch
Watch
22
Overall Asset Management Services
 Asset management strategy and transformation
 Substation Automation
 Major equipment remaining life assessment
 Major asset failure analysis
 Asset Spare Strategy
 Emergency response planning and audit
 Smart Grid technology and impact of EV's
 Wind and solar renewable integration
 PAS 55 evaluation
 Power Quality
23
Asset Management Transformation
Industry Concern: Aging infrastructure, ability to predict
future performance and budgeting needs
KEMA Services:
 Failure forecasting for asset families to 1) predict
replacement needs 2) spares 3) replacement options
 Current maintenance and alternative maintenance options
and their impact on replacement forecasts.
 Actionable asset plans developed to encompass the current
and future state for each asset family.
 Recent Client: HECO – utility serving in Hawaii
24
Substation Transformer Management
Industry Concern: Transformers are non-uniformly
loaded
KEMA Services:
 Analyze transformer load data (historical loading)
 Current maintenance Plan
 Actionable asset plans developed to encompass the current
and future state for transformers
 Recent Client: WMECO
25
Remaining Life Assessment
Industry Concern: How much life is remaining in major
assets that are critical for reliability or have significant
safety and financial implications upon failure
KEMA Services:
 Testing of oil and other components to determine condition
and predict life.
 Analysis of history to predict condition.
 Recommendations on replacement or life extension
strategies.
Recent Client: ELMAR (Aruba) station transformer fleet
assessment
26
Impact of EV’s
Industry Concern: Process to serve EV’s, system impact,
charging station & rate strategy
KEMA Services:
 Design new service process
 Develop various market penetration scenarios and local
impacts down to distribution transformer
 Develop ongoing planning tools for EV’s
 Design and support of charging station rollout
Recent Client: LADWP on development of new service
process, strategy, charging station rollout, etc.
27
Renewable Integration
Industry Concern: Impact of renewables on transmission
(wind) and distribution (solar) stability, voltage and power
quality
KEMA Services:
 Renewable interconnection studies for wind on transmission
 Modeling impact of high penetration solar on distribution
circuit voltage regulation
 Mitigation studies for renewables
Recent Client: California solar initiative studies.
28
Advanced Technology Evaluation
Industry Concern: What technologies might transform
the electric utility industry in terms of load or changing
how capital is deployed
KEMA Services:
 Comprehensive assessment of various technologies now and in
various time horizons
 Impact of technologies on load & financial performance
Recent Client: Strategic studies done for senior
leadership team of various utilities (APS) that are
confidential
29
Emergency Response Planning
Industry Concern: Having an emergency planning
process that can withstand regulatory scrutiny in an
audit
KEMA Services:
 Comprehensive resign of process and plans to respond to
emergencies
 Concurrent audit of approach and nature of damage during
storm restoration
Recent Client: Several utilities in Florida and Texas
subject to hurricanes
30
A Select List of Clients
 Existing
 New/Potential
- HECO
- TECO
- Energisa
- Toronto Hydro
- LADWP
- ABRADEE
- Light
- APS
- CEATI
- Duke/Progress Energy
- Westar Energy
- AMEREN
- CPS Energy
- NYPA
- Northeast Utilities
- WMECO
- AUSGRID
- Idaho Power
- NV Energy
31
Question & Answer
32
Appendix
2011-11-13
PAS 55
Industry Concern: Having an objective standard to
compare internal asset management with best practices
KEMA Services:
 Assessment of existing asset management against
standards.
PAS 55
 PAS 55 implementation plan
Recent Client: ENDESA assessment of existing asset
management against PAS 55
34
Asset Failure Analysis
Industry Concern: Understanding the cause of a
failure to prevent future failures and defense in
regulatory investigations.
KEMA Services:
 Forensic analysis of failure using in field observations and
laboratory testing.
 Support of claims against manufacturers
Recent Client: Multiple clients across the world but
these are normally confidential projects.
35
Some New Offerings of Asset Management Services
 Grid Hardening and Resiliency
 Asset Life Cycle Cost Management
 Equipment Spare Strategy
36
Best Practice Developments (Examples of Reliability)
 Focus on worst performing circuit mitigation for three years
 The 15% worst performing circuits often cause half of overall customer
outage
 Even if reliability average is improved, focus on worst performing pockets to
reduce customer complaints
 Dramatically improve the quality of information provided to customers
during an outage to reduce complaints
 Priorities
1st control customer complaints
2nd improve worst performing circuits
3rd improve worst performing customer pockets
37
Measure Performance With Clear Metrics
Performance
Categories
Key Performance Indicators
Cost
Reliability Actual vs.
Budget
Cost per Outage
Restored
Cost per Equipment
Maintained
SAIFI (non storm)
goal vs. actual
SAIDI (non-storm) goal
vs. actual
CAIDI (non-storm) goal
vs. actual
Tree Trimming Miles
Actual vs. Planned
Pole Replacements
Actual vs. Identified
Transformers
Retrofitted Actual vs.
Planned
OSHA Recordable
Rate
Lost Work Day Rate
Number of Vendor
Caused Outages
Construction Quality
Audit Score
Process Assessment
Score
Vendor Performance
Index
Reliability & Repair
Transactional Survey
JD Power Customer
Satisfaction Score
No. of PUC Complaints
Reliability
Schedule
Safety
Quality
Customer
Satisfaction
38
www.dnvkema.com
39