Transcript Decision Support Systems

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Well, Sort-of
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What is Business Intelligence?
 Executive class information delivery and decision support
software tools used by lower levels of management and by
individuals and teams of business professionals
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How do we define a ‘decision’?
 A position or opinion or judgment reached
after consideration
 The act of making up your mind about
something
 The commitment to irrevocably allocate
valuable resources. A decision is a
commitment to act. Action is therefore
the irrevocable allocation of valuable
resources.
 A determination of future action
 The main function of a manager
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What makes a good decision?
 Ultimately, the end result
What contributes to a good decision?
 Many factors, including decision maker
ability, experience, and even luck
How can IT help?
 By providing Quality Information: Information products whose
characteristics, attributes, or qualities make the information more
value
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What determines Information Quality?
 Attributes of Information Quality:
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What Types of decisions are there?
 Structured Decisions: For ax + bx + c = 0, the value of x is given by:
• Situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is
needed can be specified in advance
 Semi-structured Decisions:
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• Decision procedures that can be prespecified, but not enough to lead to a
definite recommended decision
 Unstructured Decisions:
• Decision situations where it is not possible
to specify in advance most of the decision
procedures to follow
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How does business structure relate to businesses?
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How does business structure relate to businesses?
 Strategic:
• Executives develop overall organizational goals, strategies,
policies, and objectives as part of a strategic planning
process
 Tactical:
• Managers and business professionals in self-directed teams
develop short- and medium-range plans, schedules and
budgets and specify the policies, procedures and business
objectives for their subunits
 Operational:
• Managers or members of self-directed teams develop shortrange plans such as weekly production schedules
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What is a decision support system?
 Computer-based information systems that provide interactive
information support to managers and business professionals
during the decision-making process using the following to make
semi structured business decisions
 Intended to provide Support for individual (or Group), Ad hoc
(impromptu), decision making
 Intended to provide Support primarily for semi-structured or
unstructured decision making (unlike standard Management
Information Systems)
 Combines data (from databases), analytical models and tools, a
decision maker’s own insights and judgments, and an interactive,
computer-based modeling process
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What doesn’t a decision support system do?
 Provide the solution (it is only tool)
 Be used over and over again (It was designed for unique decision
making)
 Always use the same
analytical models and tools
(The decision maker
chooses the models and
tools based on the problem
at hand)
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Why are we studying DSS?
 As companies migrate toward responsive e-business models, they
are investing in new data-driven decision support application
frameworks that help them respond rapidly to changing market
conditions and customer needs.
• It is one way in which a
company can become a
‘flexible’ organization
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What are the components of a DSS?
 Model Base:
• The Software
component that
consists of models
used in computational and analytical
routines that mathematically express
relationships among
variables
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What types of DSS analysis are there?
 What-if Analysis:
• User make changes to variables, or relationships among
variables, and observe the resulting changes
 Sensitivity Analysis:
• The value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and the
resulting changes in other variables are observed
 Goal-Seeking:
• The value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and the
resulting changes in other variables are observed
 Optimization:
• Find the optimum value for target variables given certain
constraints
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How does Data Mining work?
 Data mining software analyzes the vast stores of historical
business data that have been prepared for analysis in corporate
data warehouses, and tries to discover patterns, trends, and
correlations hidden in the data that can help a company improve
its business performance
 Data mining software may perform regression, decision tree,
neural network, cluster detection, or market basket analysis for a
business
 Market Basket Analysis (MBA):
• The purpose is to determine what products customers
purchase together with other products
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What are Data Visualization Systems (DVS)?
 DVS represent complex data using interactive threedimensional graphical forms such as charts, graphs, and
maps
 DVS tools help users to interactively sort, subdivide,
combine, and organize data while it is in its graphical form.
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What are Geographic Information Systems (GIS)?
 DSS that uses geographic databases to construct and
display maps and other graphics displays that support
decisions affecting the geographic distribution of people
and other resources
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What is On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP)?
 Software that enables mangers and analysts to interactively
examine and manipulate large amounts of detailed and
consolidated data from many perspectives
What operations are involved?
 Consolidation:
• aggregation of data
 Drill-Down:
• detail data that comprise consolidated data
 Slice and Dice:
• ability to look at the database from different viewpoints
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What OLAP Technologies are involved?
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What OLAP Technologies are involved?
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What is a Management Information System (MIS)?
 An information system that produces information
products that support many of the day-to-day
decision-making needs of managers and business
professionals
• Periodic Scheduled Reports
• Exception Reports
• Demand Reports and Responses
• Push Reporting
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How are DSS different from MIS?
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What is an Executive Information System (EIS)?
 Information systems that provide top executives, managers,
analysts, and other knowledge workers with immediate and easy
access to information about a firm’s key factors that are critical to
accomplishing an organization’s strategic objectives
 Features:
• Information presented in forms tailored to the preferences of
the executives using the system
• Customizable graphics displays
• Exception reporting
• Trend analysis
• Drill down capability
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What is Artificial Intelligence?
 A field of science and
technology based on
disciplines such as computer
science, biology, psychology,
linguistics, mathematics, and
engineering
 The goal is to develop
computers that can simulate
the ability to think, as well as
see, hear, walk, talk, and feel
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What are the attributes of Intelligent Behavior?
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Think and reason
Use reason to solve problems
Learn or understand from experience
Acquire and apply knowledge
Exhibit creativity and imagination
Deal with complex or perplexing situations
Respond quickly and successfully to new situations
Handle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous information
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How do we know if computer software is artificially
intelligent?
“An expert system is a computer program that represents and
reasons with knowledge of some specialist subject with a
view to solving problems or giving advice.” Jackson (1999)
 Turing Test
1912-54
• A computer program demonstrates artificial
intelligence if it can “pass’ as a human (c. 1950)
• In 1990, the Cambridge Center for
Behavioral Studies began offering
the $100,000 Loebner Prize to the
first program whose responses were
indistinguishable from a human’s
(No one has ever won)
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Watson
On February 14–16, 2011, in
three consecutive Jeopardy!
Episodes, Watson, IBM’s
Supercomputer, beat Brad
Rutter, the biggest all-time money
winner on Jeopardy!, and Ken
Jennings, the record holder for
the longest championship series.
Watson won $77,147.
Ken Jennings ended with $24,000
and Brad Rutter with $21,600.
Watson answered 66 of 75 questions (88%) for which he was the first to
‘press the buzzer’, correctly
Watson had to rely on it’s voice recognition programs to “understand” what
Alex Trabek was asking and had it’s programs for artificial production of
human speech to answer
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Watson
 Some of Watson’s answers seem obvious given it’s database:
• Category: DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT (4/4)
• Answer (Trabek): It's just acne! You don't have this
skin infection also know as Hansen's Disease
• Question (Watson): Leprosy
 Some answers seem were a little more complex:
• Category: "CHURCH" & "STATE“ (3/3)
• Answer (Trabek): It can mean to develop gradually in
the mind or to carry during pregnancy
• Question (Watson): Gestate
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Watson
 Some answers seem to be “clever”:
• Category: PRESIDENTIAL RHYME TIME
• Answer: Barack's Andean pack animals
• Question (Watson): What is Obama's llamas?
 Some answers seem to actually require ‘thought’:
• Answer: Colorful fourteenth century plague that
became a hit play by Arthur Miller
• Question (Watson): What is The Black Death of a
Salesman?
• The only way to get to these answers is to put together
pieces of information from various sources, because the
exact answer is not likely to be written anywhere.
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Watson
 On the other hand, Watson made some odd answers:
• Category: FINAL JEOPARDY - U.S. CITIES
• Answer: Its largest airport is named for a World War II
Hero; its second largest for a World War II Battle :
• Question (Watson): What is Toronto?
(The correct question is Chicago)
• Category: FINAL FRONTIERS
• Answer: From the Latin for "End", this is where trains
can also originate :
• Question (Watson): What is Finis?
(The correct question is Terminal)
Short Video
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Watson
• Watson is actually 90 IBM Power 750
Express servers powered by 8-core
processors -- four in each machine for
a total of 32 processors per machine
and a grand total of 2,880 processors.
• Speed: 80-teraflops
• RAM: 1TB
• Database: 21.6TB (RAID)
• In comparison, futurist and author Ray Kurzweil believes that the
human brain can hold about 1.25TB of data, and performs at
roughly 100 teraflops.
How can we create intelligence that resembles humans??
• Bart Massey, a professor of computer science at Portland notes: "If
you want to build something that thinks like a human, we have a great
way to do that. It only takes nine months and it's really fun."
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What are the areas of Artificial Intelligence?
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What are cognitive applications?
 Systems that focus on researching how the human brain
works and how humans think and learn
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What is an Expert System?
 Expert systems are based on the thinking and behavior
patterns of an expert in a specialized area which s/he
performs over and over; For typical DSS problems, there are
no experts and the tasks are ad-hoc
 A knowledge-based information system that uses its
knowledge about a specific, complex application to act as an
expert consultant to end users
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What constitutes an expert?
 That is NOT an easy Question!! Some people are generally
recognized as experts
 To be considered as models for an expert system, they must have
some basic characteristics:
• They must know how they perform the task
• They must Have the time and ability to explain how they
perform
• They must be Motivated to Cooperate
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What are the components of an expert system?
 Knowledge Base:
• facts about specific subject area and heuristics that express
the reasoning procedures of an expert
 Software Resources:
• inference engine and other programs refining knowledge and
communicating with users
• Rule/Heuristic Based:
Rule:
If there is a potato in the tailpipe, the car will not start.
Finding:
There is a potato in the tailpipe.
Conclusion: The car will not start.
(Truth preserving inference)
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What methods of knowledge representation are there?
 Case-Based:
• examples of past performance, occurrences and experiences
 Frame-Based:
• hierarchy or network of entities consisting of a complex
package of data values
 Object-Based:
• data and the methods or processes that act on those data
 Rule-Based:
• rules and statements that typically take the form of a premise
and a conclusion
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What are the benefits of Expert Systems?
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Faster and more consistent than an expert
Can have the knowledge of several experts
Does not get tired or distracted by overwork or stress
Helps preserve and reproduce the knowledge of experts
What are the Limitations of Expert Systems?
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Limited focus
Inability to learn***
Maintenance problems
Developmental costs
Only as good as the Knowledge Engineer (A professional who
works with experts to capture the knowledge they posses) who
builds it
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What areas are suitable for Expert Systems?
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How are DSS different from Expert Systems?
Expert Systems
• Based On Expert
• Based on Logical Reasoning
Decision Support Systems
• No Experts Available
• System Questions User
• Used Frequently
• Based on Numerical Analysis
• User Questions System
• Used for Ad-hoc Problems
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Final Solution(s) Provided
Very Accurate
Multiple Solutions
Learning Possible
Outputs provided based Analysis
Unknown Accuracy
Always the same output
Based on known analytical techniques
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What is a fuzzy logic?
 A method of reasoning that
resembles human reasoning
since it allows for
approximate values and
inferences and incomplete
or ambiguous data instead
of relying only on crisp data
What does ‘good’ mean?
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What are genetic algorithms?
 Software that uses Darwinian,
randomizing, and other
mathematical functions to simulate
an evolutionary process that can
yield increasingly better solutions
to a problem
 Emulates the concept ‘Survival of the fittest’
 Over time, competing algorithms develop certain strengths
and thrive; weaker algorithms ‘die’
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What is a neural network?
 Computing systems modeled after the brain’s mesh-like
network of interconnected processing elements, called
neurons
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What are Knowledge Management Systems?
 The use of information
technology to help gather,
organize, and share
business knowledge within
an organization
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What is an intelligent agent?
 A software surrogate for an end user or a
process that fulfills a stated need or activity
by using built-in/learned knowledge base
to make decisions and accomplish tasks in
a way that fulfills the intentions of a user
• Interface Tutors: observe user computer operations, correct user
mistakes, and provide hints and advice on efficient software use
• Presentation: show information in a variety of forms and media
based on user preferences
• Network Navigation: discover paths to information
• Role-Playing: play what-if games and other roles to help users
understand information and make better decisions
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What Information Management Agents are there?
• Search Agents: help users find files and databases, search
for desired information, and suggest and find new types of
information products, media, and resources
• Information Brokers: provide commercial services to
discover and develop information resources that fit the
business or personal needs of a user
• Information Filters: receive, find, filter, discard, save,
forward, and notify users about products received or desired
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What is Robotics?
 Robot machines with computer intelligence and computer
controlled, humanlike physical capabilities
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What are Natural Interfaces?
 Includes natural language, speech
recognition, and the development
of multi-sensory devices that use
a variety of body movements to
operate computers
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What is virtual reality?
 Computer-simulated reality that
relies on multi-sensory
input/output devices such as a
tracking headset with video
goggles and stereo earphones, a
data glove or jumpsuit with fiberoptic sensors that track your body
movements, and a walker that
monitors the movement of your
feet
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Are there any Questions???