Transcript Real Time Forecast PPT

Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw model
output and research product. This is meant for
scientific use.
Experimental Extended range prediction
INITIAL CONDITION: 27th December 2015
 This MME forecast has been prepared using the
CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382)
(each 11 members) .
Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015,
DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578
Real-time forecast based on 27th December 2015
initial condition
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)
Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)
Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height
(by MME)
Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
Key points from the present forecast
The next 20 days forecast indicates that
 Western disturbance activities are likely to cause precipitation over the
western Himalayan region during last 3 pentads with above normal
precipitation during 2nd and 4th pentads.
 A feeble easterly wave trough is likely to cause normal rainfall activity over
southern parts of Tamil Nadu during the first pentad.
 Remaining parts of India is likely to experience dry weather which is normal
during this part of the season.
 North India may have respite from cold wave with normal to above normal
temperatures during all the 4 pentads. Below normal night minimum
temperatures are likely over south peninsula during 1st , 2nd & 3rd pentads
due to clear skies and radiational cooling resulted from continental dry air
replacing the warm & moist maritime air.
 MJO associated convection is moving towards Central Pacific and a fresh
spell of MJO associated convective anomaly is expected to appear over
Western Indian ocean and expected to move eastward.