Transcript ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20150814

Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw model
output and research product. This is meant for
scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,
please contact India Meteorological Department.
Extended range prediction during 2015
season
INITIAL CONDITION: 14th August 2015
 This MME forecast has been prepared using the
CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382)
(each 11 members) .
Real-time forecast based on 14th August 2015 initial
condition
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)
Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)
Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height
(by MME)
Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions predicted by MME
Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted by MME
Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted by MME
Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted by MME
Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted by MME
Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted by MME
Key points from the present forecast
The next 20 days forecast indicates that
 Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the large scale weak
monsoon condition will continue for next 10-15 days.
 It was forecasted earlier that a fresh convective activity will move
from Indian ocean to southern tip of peninsula around 20th Aug. But
further propagation of convection towards north will be hampered
due to the development of two cyclonic systems over central Pacific.
 It is expected that after the dissipation of these two systems,
convection over Bay of Bengal may increase by the end of August.
 Overall rainfall activity will be below normal in the month of August.
MISO forecast and its verification
MISO forecast and its verification
MISO forecast and its verification