Transcript ICCIC - Outline and Research Gaps - Ofira Ayalon

‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
Israeli Climate Change
Information Center (ICCIC)
Outline and research gaps
Prof. Ofira Ayalon, Director
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
Israeli Climate Change Information Center
(ICCIC)

A consortium funded by Israel’s Ministry of Environmental
Protection in March 2011, based at University of Haifa, in
conjunction with scientists from Tel Aviv University,
Technion and Neaman Institute for Advanced Policy
Research.
The Focal Point for all of the Country's
state-of-the-art Knowhow in CC potential
impacts and adaptation capacity.

‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center



ICCIC focused on the following sectors and cross-cutting issues:
o Regional and local climate scenarios- Prof. Haim Kutiel
o Water resources- Prof. Nurit Kliot
o Public health- Prof. Manfred Green
o Biodiversity- Prof. Marcelo Sternberg
o Urban planning and “green” buildings- Prof. Guedi Capeluto,
Dr. Tammar Trop
o Geo-strategic aspects- Prof. Arnon Soffer
o Economics- Prof. Shechter , Dr. Ruslana Rachel Palatnik,
Dr. Tzipi Eshet
The 7 teams of scientists were accompanied by steering
committees composed of experts from the academia,
government ministries, industry and NGOs.
The 7 teams acted as a multi-disciplinary
think tank.
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
ICCIC reports
The first report was submitted in September 2011

Reflects the existing knowledge regarding the implications of climate
change on Israel.

Based on global and local scientific research and professional
publications.

Includes the identification of the existing research gaps
and provides detailed recommendations
about prioritized research requirements
(short-term and long-term).
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
ICCIC reports
The second report was submitted in August 2012

Proposed national adaptation policy in the relevant areas and in detailed
international marketing of the ICCIC activities.

Various measures to cope with climate change were surveyed in order to
determine the economic resources that should be invested. These options
are defined as "No Regret alternatives".

Under Climate: the climate changes that are predicted for the next 50
years are presented.

Specific policies are presented for water resources, public health,
biodiversity and green building.

The mutual connections amongst the areas are analyzed in a multidisciplinary manner using Geostrategic and Economic perspectives.
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
ICCIC reports





The third report was submitted in August 2013
Proposed national adaptation policy for Local Authorities.
Examples from cities in the world that prepared plans for adaptation to
climate change.
Maps of Risk areas for Israel
Background and review the preparation of Local Authorities in Israel to
climate change regarding water, health, bio-diversity and urban planning.
Assessing Economic costs and benefits
resulting from these preparations
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
ICCIC reports
Current Activities

Assist to formulate a National Adaptation Plan for the State of
Israel

Build an internet site (www.iccic.org.il)
All the reports can be downloaded
http://www.sviva.gov.il/subjectsEnv/ClimateChange/AdaptationKnowl
edgeCenter/Pages/CCKnowledgeCenter.aspx
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
General Scientific Research
Two main groups
o Studies that document changes in different climate factors that
have been observed at different periods and in different areas,
usually, based on statistical analysis and measurements
o Studies examining different scenarios based on trends in the
variability of climatic parameters in the future, based on models and
assumptions found in studies in the first group
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
General Scientific Research
Main Conclusions based on the scientific research review:
o Even though the number of the published studies is rather large, their
synthesis is very difficult or even impossible due to the data
variability, the analysis methods and the time these studies were held.
o There are deep and variable scientific gaps in knowledge about the
effects of climate change in all sectors.
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
11
Research Gaps – Climate Aspects
Subject
issue
Area
Research Gap
Temperatures
Heat islands
effect
Urban
Assessing the municipal contribution
for temperature changes
The effect of urbanization on rain
regime
Priority
2
3
Rain Regime
Temperatures Israel
and rain
scenarios
Temperature rise and the rain regime
Downscaling the number of rain periods
Downscaling the yield of rain periods
Downscaling the duration of the rain
season
Costal Area
Rise of sea
level
Waves height
Costal
Areas
Temperatures and the rise of sea level
Identifying the synoptic situations that
cause storms
3
Periodic
variability
Israel,
Urban
areas in
particular
Testing time-series of pollutant
concentrations from different sources
2
Air Pollution
1-2
1
1
2-3
2
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
SCOPUS SEARCH
ENVI - Environmental Science
AGRI - Agricultural and Biological Sciences
EART - Earth and Planetary Sciences
Water (AGRI / ENVI / EART)
Biodiversity
Climate Change
Environmental Health
Israeli Docs
8,603
691
675
186
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
13
Research Gaps – Water Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Priority
Models
Downscaling for significant areas
Connecting climate models with hydrological models, ecological and
engineering
1
2
Adaptation
preparedness scenarios according to the findings of the various models
1
Evaporation
Soil Evaporation- data and modelling
The impact of changes in evaporation on agricultural irrigation
1
2
Precipitation
extreme events and their effect on the soil, seeping and recharge
1
Runoff
Monitoring urban runoff
Runoff and land cover
1
2
Water reservoir
Assessing the feasibility of reservoirs compared to insertion into groundwater
Forecast models regarding refill aquifers in coming decades
1
1
Temperature
Rise
The effect of the temperature rise on consumption in the urban domestic sector
The effect of the temperature rise on agricultural irrigation consumption
The effect of the temperature rise on decomposition of pollutants in streams
3
3
2
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
14
Research Gaps – Water Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Priority
Draught
Create an index for draught for Israel
1
Anthropogenic
Effects
Assess differences between the effects of global climate change vs.
anthropogenic influences on water sector
1
Sewage
Sewage Treatment methods
Use of bio-gas as a source of energy in WWTP- economic aspects
3
2
Treated waste
water
Economic aspects of desalination of treated wastewater for dilution with fresh
water and re-use for drinking water
2
Grey-water
Pathogen analysis and epidemiology of grey water system over time
2
Desalination
Feasibility of desalination fossil water in the Negev
The Environmental impacts on the desalination on water cost
2
2
Overland flow
Examination of water retention and insertion to upstream rivers
2
ground water
infection
Setting of “freshwater” definition
1
Urban Water
consumption
Indicators of success and failure of water-saving information campaigns
1
Adaptation of economic tools to increase savings in domestic level and in
local authorities
2
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
15
Research Gaps – Water Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Priority
Agricultural
water
consumption
The Feasibility of External costs in agriculture
2
Food safety- term, definition, policy (in light of CC)
1
Energy
Integration of renewable energies in the water sector
2
Water,
Geo-strategic,
Geo- politics,
Safety
Local and international definitions of water safety – new theories
2
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
16
Research Gaps – Water Aspects
Climatic conditions and their effect on
Precipitation variance issues (spread, quantity and extreme
events, Frequency and duration of draughts) and related effect
on water recharge
Models - Downscaling important geographic areas for the
water sector
Effects of rising temperature on evaporation
The quality of water,
Runoff monitoring,
Urban savings
Economics, Planning, Social aspects
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
17
Research Gaps – Health Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Respiratory
diseases
1. Development of a long term database on
incidence and prevalence of respiratory
diseases, in addition to environmental and social
related variables
2. Statistical methods, such as multi-level
regression to evaluate correlation between the
variables and the respiratory health outcomes
and path analysis to investigate possible debate
of those relationships (Path analysis)
1
Cardiovascular Focused research on warning systems and
diseases
early detection and communication with high risk
specific groups related to climate change
1
Priority
1
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
18
Research Gaps – Health Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Diseases
Build an improved monitoring system for West Nile
transmitted virus in by increasing the sensitivity to discover its
by vectors periodicity in early stage (European Centre for
Disease Prevention and Control, 2011)
Assessment of the extent increase in the use of
pesticides
Priority
1
1
Develop field Kits to identify diseases in patients
2
Development of pest control methods against the
increase of vectors
2
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
19
Research Gaps – Biodiversity Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Priority
Pest species Identifying pests that may spread due to the CC
Effects of climate change on the spread of allergens
1
2
Invasive
species
Identifying ways to reduce the penetration of invasive
species
Develop methods to suppress the invasive species
1
1
Ecosystem
services
Evaluation of threshold values of the different climate
variables (temperature, precipitation, evaporation),
which may undermine the stability of different
habitats
1
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
20
Research Gaps –Biodiversity Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Fresh Water
habitats
Using treated waste water for river rehabilitation
Priority
1
There is a special need in a long-term monitoring research into
evaluation of thresholds of climatic variables which may destabilized ecosystems and targeted research on management
of sustainability of natural habitats and ecosystems to a more
arid climate, and development of strategies to rehabilitate
affected ecosystems.
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
21
Research Gaps – Urban planning and green
buildings Aspects
issue
Research Gap
Priority
Implementing Analysis and study of case studies
green building Cost / benefit analysis in comparison with regular
construction
Identifying barriers
Monitoring green buildings – comparison to simulation
1
1
Energy
Saving
Development of guidelines design for other types of
structures
1
Energetic
retrofitting of
Buildings
Energy retrofitting strategies
Assessment of savings potential in existing buildings
1
2
Dealing with
Extreme
situations
Architectural design in extreme situations
Urban Planning for extreme situations
1
1
1
1
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
Research Gaps – Economic Aspects
Subject
Research Gap
Priority
Estimates of
Adaptation Costs
Research on Israel adaptation costs -Bottom-up,
Top-Down
1
Economic sectorial
research
Economic sectorial research:
• ICCIC areas (water, human health, biodiversity,
green building, geo-strategy
• Other areas (energy, insurance, agriculture, coastal
areas, tourism, transportation)
1
Model-based research Research based on models of the Israeli economy.
on integration of
Impacts of mitigation policy on adaptation strategy
adaptation and
(complementarily/ trade offs)
mitigation measures
1
Impact of uncertainty
on adaptation costs
assessment
1
Research on the implications of Israel climate
change uncertainty phenomenon on adaptation
costs and policy decisions,
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
Concluding remarks
• Adaptation is an issue relevant at local, national and
international levels
• It should be possible to characterize effectiveness and define
“successful adaptation” processes
• The adaptation to CC is a continuous process and needs to
be “adapted” to changing conditions
• The research gaps identified and rated are a snapshot of
2010-2012 for the State of Israel.
• New policies, new circumstances, new knowledge – will create
new scientific questions in each relevant sector and on a local/
national/ international level.
‫מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראל‬
ICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center
For example,
*Mitigation and Adaptation actions may amplify the impacts of
climate change- e.g., use of AC, rebound effect of efficient home
appliances.
* Physical flood barriers may affect differently than ‘softer’
engineering approaches, i.e., coastal wetlands. The effectiveness
of each alternative should be evaluated before and after
implementation
So, research needs will change
we’ll need to fill new gaps