Transcript HCMC

Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet , Associate Director
Date: August, 10th 2016
1
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
VIETNAM ECONOMY
Prospects for Growth are Positive
600 new real estate
630 new foreign investors
companies in Vietnam
in Q1.2016, up 146% y-o-y
in VN stock market in
5M.2016, up 200% y-o-y
2
Real estate inventory
down 26% in 6M.2016
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
VIETNAM ECONOMY
Though There Remain Challenging Issues to Tackle
HSBC worries about Vietnam’s credit loosening
Bad debt rose to 2.62% as of Mar/2016
vs. 2.55% as of Dec.2015
Bad debt is again on the rise
Vietnam has big trade deficit with China and
Korea
“Despite the slowdown, growth of
5.5 percent still makes Vietnam
one of the top-performing
economies in the region,”
3
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
VIETNAM ECONOMY
25
Q2 2016
Committed FDI up
105% y-o-y to
US$11.3 bn
15
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Average CPI (y-o-y)
2015
Jun-16
Deposit rate
650
5 000
580
4 000
510
3 000
440
2 000
300
Jun-16
Apr-16
1 000
0
in May (**)
Trading value
Source: GSO
(**) Updated May 2016
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Petro price hike 5%
Aug-14
real
Jun-14
Retail Sales up 7.5%
Trading Value (Billions VND)
FX Reserves up to
US$38bn and
US$/VND stable
6 000
370

2014
720
Apr-14

CPI up 1.7% y-o-y
Feb-14

2013
Source: GSO, SOB
VNIndex

2012
Lending rate
Apr-15

(Q1 2016: 5.48%)
Interest rate (%)

GDP up 5.55%
20
9
VNIndex
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
VIETNAM ECONOMY
Growth More Stable Than Its Peers
Vietnam GDP Growth compared to Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Vietnam
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
Source: World Bank Data.
“
Compared to the rest of ASEAN, Vietnam is the only country for whichADB
raised its GDP growth target thanks to very strong FDI, active sqmE
economy and new foreign ownership laws for both properties and stocks..
”
Asian Development Bank
5
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
VIETNAM ECONOMY
Major Asset Channels
140
120
Index
100
80
60
40
20
0
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
2014
Government Bond
VN-Index
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
2015
Global Gold
USD/VND
Feb
Apr June
2016
Crude Oil
Source: FPT Securities, HNC, Gold.org, SJC
6
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
FDI
Real Estate FDI Remains Moderate
Vietnam Registered FDI in 6M 2016: USD11.3 billion, up 105% y-o-y
Manufacturing
19%
25
%
5%
2007
5%
Real Estate
6M
2016
Science Technology
71%
75%
Others
Top FDI Investors, USD million, May 2016
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Singapore
Japan
South Korea
Major Real Estate Deals, H1 2016
1. LG Display Co., Ltd invested US$1.5 billion for a
OLED project in Hai Phong
2. Samsung to invest US$300 million in a 21-storey
building in Hanoi.
3. TNR Holdings and a Russian partner signed the
memo regarding implement a US$300 million
project in Hanoi.
4. SynGience (Singapore) invest in DepotMetro Tower
– Tham Luong with US$18 mil.
680,70
1056,60
1129,0
1229,30
3991,40
Source: GSO
7
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
INFRASTRUCTURE
Airports
Hai Phong – new terminal
Old airport
max pax per year
Hai Phong 1,200,000
Hanoi
25,000,000
Da Nang
5,000,000
Long Thanh N/A
HCMC
26,500,000
Hanoi – airport expansion
under planning
Da Nang – airport expansion
under construction
Dong Nai – Long Thanh
airport under designing
process
HCMC – airport expansion
under construction
New airport
max pax per year
Hai Phong 4,000,000
Hanoi
50,000,000
Da Nang
13,000,000
Long Thanh 100,000,000
HCMC
40,000,000
15
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
INFRASTRUCTURE – HCMC
Lang Cha Ca
Roundabout
Elevated expressways
Route 1– Under planning
9.5 km
Phu An Bridge
Cat Lai Bridge – Under planning
Thai Son Co. – Cienco 1 –
Duc Binh Co. – Cai Mep Co.
CII + foreign partner
US$667 million
US$198 million
New Western Bus Station
Samco
US$177 million
Dong Nai
16
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
INFRASTRUCTURE – HCMC
Metro Line No. 1
5
5 Long Binh depot
2 Tan Cang Station
Slow construction process
for the elevated section
2
1
Source: photos by Zing
17 1
CBRE
| VIETNAM
MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
Ba Son station, Opera House
and
Ben Thanh
LEGISLATION NEWS
Amended Circular 36: Final decision favourable for real estate sector
1The risk weighting for lending to real
estate businesses changes from 150% to
200%, effective from 1 Jan 2017 [the
proposed drafts were 250%]
2The ROOM ratio cap (short term fund
used for medium and long term lending) is
moved from the current 60% to 50% from 1
Jan 2017, and then to 40% from 1 Jan
2018. [The draft proposed an immediate
40%].
=> the approved circular is less drastic as
previously feared and well received by the
market.
11
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
RESIDENTIAL
21
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CHANNELS
Inefficiency in the Market?
Change in Price of Land, High-end Condos and Real Estate Sector inVN-Index
HCMC
160
130
140
120
120
110
100
100
80
90
60
40
80
2011
2012
2013
Land price – New CBD
•
•
•
•
•
Hanoi
140
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Index
180
2014
2015
2016
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2014
New Condo. Pricing
VN Index
2015
2016
Old Condo. Pricing
Base year: Hanoi Q4/2013, HCMC Q1/2011
Land Price: HCMC District 1, based on CBRE recorded transaction deals, therefore may not represent the whole market; Hanoi New CBD, based on
CBRE’s tracked asking prices therefore may not representthe whole market.
New Condo: selling price on primary market
Old Condo: selling price on secondarymarket
VN-index of Real Estate Holding & Development companies
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Stockbiz, RCA, June 2016
13
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Notable HCMC Joint Ventures Formed Up
RIVER CITY
G HOMES
FUJI RESIDENCE
CREED GROUP
+ PHAT DAT + AN GIA
FRASER CENTREPOINT
+ AN DUONG THAO DIEN
HANKYU REALTY & NISHI NIPPON
RAILROAD + NAM LONG
CITY GATE TOWERS
ASCENT LAKESIDE
CREED GROUP
+ NAM BAY BAY
SANYO HOMES CORPORATION
+ HOA BINH HOUSE JSC
14
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Mid-end Apartments Dominate New Launches
New launches by year, units
HCMC
Luxury
Hanoi
High-end
Mid-end
14 000
12 000
12 000
10 000
Number of units
Number of units
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
Low-end
Affordable
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
2 000
0
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012
2016
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
25
2013
2014
2015
2016
Luxury: >US$3,000 per sqm in HN and > US$3,500 per sqm in HCMC
High-end: US$1,500 to US$3,000(HN) or US$ 3,500 (HCMC) per sqm
Mid-end: US$1,000 to $1,500 per sqm
Affordable:
<US$800 |per
CBRE | VIETNAM
MARKET OUTLOOK
Q2 sqm
2016
CONDOMINIUM
HCMC: A Drop in New Luxury & Premium High-end Launches
New Launches in Last 12 Months, HCMC
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
20
15
10
5
No. of projects
No. of units
Vinhomes Golden River Launch
0
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
2015
Launched Units
Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
2016
Launched Projects
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
26
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Q2 2016
HCMC
HANOI
10,107 units
launched
-9% y-o-y
6,100 units
launched
-23% y-o-y
Launches
16%
-17 ppts y-o-y
5,887 units
sold
-45% y-o-y
High-end
Launches
Net absorption*
Net absorption*
Sales
Sales
Market wide
+1.6%
-0.3%
y-o-y
y-o-y
~10%
-3.5 ppts y-o-y
4,860 units
sold
-7.2% y-o-y
High-end
Asking price
(Primary)
Market wide
Asking price +5% to +10% +2.4%
y-o-y
(Primary)
Y-o-y
(*) Net absorption = Total units sold in primary market in the review period / (newly launched units in the review
period + unsold units in the previous period)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
27
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Hot Spots
Clusters of Total Launched Supply in Q2 2016
Clusters of Total Launched Supply in Q2 2016
North
HCMC
0%
HANOI
East
Midtown CBD
9%
West
47%
Central
21%
West
North
42%
CBD
Fringe
2%
5%
East
34%
South
South
8%
26%
Sold Units
Sold Units
Affordable
Mid-end
High-end
Luxury
No. of Sold Units
No. of Sold Units
12 000
5%
South West
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
Q1
Q2
Luxury
High-end
Q2
Q3
Mid-end
Affordable
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2015
Q4
Q1
Q2
2016
2016
18
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
HCMC: Sales Not Catching Up with New Launches
Sold Units vs. New Launches
Hanoi
New Launches
1H 2016
2015
2014
2013
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2012
2015
Sold Units
1H 2016
New Launches
2014
2013
Units
45 000
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2012
Units
HCMC
Sold units
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
19
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
APARTMENT FOR SALE
Hanoi: improvements in average secondary prices
Resale Asking Price – Under-construction Projects vs. Completed Projects
$1250,0
$1200,0
$1150,0
$1100,0
$1050,0
$1000,0
Q4/14
Q1/15
Q2/15
Q3/15
Completed
Q4/15
Q1/16
Q2/16
Under construction
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
20
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
HCMC: Secondary Market Has Dried Up
Resale Asking Price – Under-construction Projects vs. Completed Projects
Selling Price (US$ psqm)
$2 200
$2 000
$1 800
$1 600
$1 400
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Primary Asking Price
Under Construction Projects
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Secondary Asking Price
Completed Projects
*Only typical high-end projects in District 2 and Binh Thanh District are selected into the basket.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
21
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Concerns on Mortgaged Apartments & Hand-over of Unfinished
buildings
22
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
Concerns on A Fully Supplied Mid- to High-end Sector
Expected Completion
Hanoi
50 000
50 000
40 000
40 000
Completed Units
Completed Units
HCMC
30 000
20 000
10 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2014
Luxury
0
2015 2016f
High-end
2017f 2018f
Mid-end
2014
2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
23
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
NEW TOWNSHIP
VinGroup Expansion – HCMC
… Tháng 9/2015, Tập đoàn Vingroup đề xuất tham gia đầu tư
xây dựng dự án nâng cấp, mở rộng đường Vườn Lài và xây dựng
cầu Vàm Thuật theo hình thức xây dựng - chuyển giao (BT).
Nguồn vốn đối ứng của dự án là tiền sử dụng đất khu đất phía
Nam của Quốc lộ 1 tại phường An Phú Đông, Quận 12.
34
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
New Supply in 2H 2016 – HCMC
Vinhomes Golden River–The
Luxury. Developer: VinGroup
~ 5,000 units
Sunwah Pearl
Developer: Sunwah Group
~ No. of unit – N/A
Palm City. Developer: Keppel
Land, Tien Phuoc, Tran Thai
~ No. of unit – N/A
Millennium.
Developer: Vinh Hoi
Investment, Phat Dat Corp.,
Thao Dien Investment
~ 728 units
Diamond Island - Hawaii
Developer: Kusto
~ 950 units
BIS
AIS
ISH
Parkson Cantavil Premier
Metro An Phu
AIS
International School
Industrial Park
Retail
36
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
CBRE Sales: More Foreign Buyers, for Investment Purpose in HCMC
Owner-occupier
H1 2016
Q1 2016
H1 2015
33%
18%
65%
Buy-to-let Investors
30%
28%
15%
Buy-to-gain Investors
37%
54%
21%
* The analysis above is based on CBRE Vietnam’s residential closed deals and should not be used as a marketwise benchmark.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
38
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
CONDOMINIUM
CBRE Sales: More Foreign Buyers, for Investment Purpose in HCMC
Offshore Buyers
Buyers by Origin
10%
14%
3%
North-based
37%
24%
51%
53%
VietNamNet Bridge - Though some problems still exist in the
legal framework, more and more foreigners are registeringto
buy houses in Vietnam.
…A HoREA report showed that about 700 foreigners have
bought high-end houses in HCM City in the period from
July 1, 2015... there are 90,000 expats living and working in
Vietnam, 50 percent in HCMC. …According to Phu My Hung
Development Company, the number of expats in Phu My
Hung New Urban Areas has increased by 35 percent in the
last two years, or by 11,000 to 15,000 residents.
Buyers by Age
18%
73%
44%
35%
4% 34%
H1 2016
0%
45%
Q1 2016
3%
11%
Under 30
30 - 40
55%
27%
32%
53%
H1 2015
South-based
41-50
Above 50
* The analysis above is based on CBRE Vietnam’s residential closed deals and should not be used as a marketwise benchmark.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
39
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
RESIDENTIAL AFFORDABILITY PYRAMID
Home loan offered by commercial banks
Bank
Interest
rate (*)
Maximum
loan (**)
Max.
payment
term (years)
Vietcombank
7.3%
70%
15
BIDV
7.3%
Up to 100%
20
MB
6%
90%***
15
VIB
7.49%
80%
20
Source: Retrieved on thebank.vn. June, 2016
* 1st year Interest rate
**As percentage of asset value
*** As percentage of borrowing demand
2007 - 2012
Cash & Gold
2012 - 2015
2016 onward
Mortgage & Home Loan
Guaranteed Yield
Foreign Housing Ownership
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2016.
40
CBRE | VIETNAM MARKET OUTLOOK | Q2 2016
For more information regarding this presentation please contact:
CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
T +84 4 2220 0220
F +84 4 2220 0210
Email: [email protected]
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reason ofOUTLOOK
any person| using
or
CBREor
| VIETNAM
Q2 2016
relying on information in this publication.