Agriculture as % of GDP 1993

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Transcript Agriculture as % of GDP 1993

Citoyens de la Terre
Conférence de Paris
pour une gouvernance écologique
mondiale
2-3 février 2007
Faire de l’Eau un Enjeu Partagé:
L’Adaptation Nécessaire de la Gestion de
l’Eau au Changement Climatique
Jamal Saghir
Director
Energy, Transport, Water
The World Bank
Paris, Feb 2, 2007
Outline

The Context
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Key Challenges and Key Signals
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Climate Change, Water and Economy in
Developing Countries
Adaptation Strategies - What Needs to be
Done
The context
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World Bank Group engagement in climate
mitigation and adaptation
G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action (July 2006)
Development Committee requested the
World Bank to prepare an investment
framework for Clean Energy and
Development (September 2006)
Three interconnected pillars:
•
•
•
Increased access to energy
Mitigation
Adaptation
Water has many
dimensions…
It affects every aspect of
life and is affected by it
Water flows through all the
topics addressed in this
conference
Water for:
Rural
Cities
Irrigation
Water for:
Energy
Transport
Water for:
Biodiversity
Livelihood
Population Growth
9
8
World
Population, billions
7
6
Urban
5
4
3
Rural
2
1
0
1950
1960
Source: UN Population Data
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Climate stress and hydrologic variability
Source: UNESCO, 1999
% change in runoff by 2050
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Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become
significantly drier
Globally there will be more precipitation
Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off
A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America,
northern Brazil, west and south Africa)
Some climate change issues
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Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially
Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry
spells; less ground water recharge
Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain
per wet day (Right) for 2041-2060 period based on modeling
(HadRM2)
Fewer rainy days
But heavier rain
Some consequences of climate
change for water management
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Demand for more storage to buffer more
variable supply
Demand for more irrigation to protect
crops against increasingly irregular rainfall
Significant increase in water infrastructure
All this will be set against increasing
demand for water from population growth
and development
Europe:
Changing flood frequency
Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change

Over much
of Europe
“one in a
hundred
year floods”
will occur
every
couple of
decades
Threats to coastal Water
Supply systems
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Sea level rise  increased salt water
intrusion
Increased demand leading to depletion
Pressures
on costs and
tariffs
Mountain water systems
India
Reuters August 11, 2006
“Indian floods kill 350, leave
4m homeless in 5 Indian
states”
Africa:
Persistent droughts
Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006
“Approximately 11 million people are
threatened by starvation in Djibouti,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and
Tanzania… Rain is unlikely before
April”
Mozambique:
Impact of 2000 floods on the economy
-23%
+44%
Kenya: variability and growth
rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP
rainfall variability
Ag GDP
GDP
60
10
40
8
20
6
0
4
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
-20
2
-40
0
-60
-80
-2
-100
-4
Ethiopia:
Water
and
GDP
Ethiopia: Rainfall,
GDP and
Agric. GDP
80
25
20
60
40
10
20
5
0
rainfall variation around the mean
-80
2000
-5
-10
-15
-40
-60
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-20
1983
0
1982
percentage
15
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
year
2003-2015 growth projections:
World Bank

38% decline in avg. GDP growth
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25% increase in poverty
-20
-25
-30
Globally:
Accelerated glacial and snow melt will change
patterns in Water supply
Areas
dominated
by snow &
glacial melt
South America:
Yanamarey Glacier, Peru
1982
1997
1987
2005
Water and climate change –
what we see or could see…
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Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human
health will be adversely affected with developing countries being
the most vulnerable
Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the tropics
and sub-tropics . Melting glaciers cold initially increase flood risk
and then strongly reduce water supplies, eventually could
threaten around 1/6 of world’s population according to Stern’s
report.
Declining crop yields, especially in Africa. But also developed
countries in lower latitudes will be more vulnerable with water
availability and crop yields in Southern Europe are expected to
decline according to Stern report by 20% with a 2 C increase in
global temperatures.
Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of million of
people each year with warming
Water availability for services, energy, and environmental
management is projected to decrease in many arid- and semiarid regions
Loss of biodiversity, water pollution control, and watershed
management efforts will be exacerbated
Adaptation emerging strategies:
what we see …
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Climate is variable and changing
Mitigation is beyond the scope of the
water sector
Adaptation can be carried out within
the water sector, but not alone
Major change in the way we do
business is required
What needs to be done
 Recognize that the 20th century water data
is not adequate for 2011 to 2040 water
services and water management
development
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Re-consider water allocation priorities
• Demand for water in currently irrigated water will increase
• Should cropping systems change? How it will adapt?
 An integrated approach to planning, design,
and management of water resources and
water services will be required
 Transfer existing technologies, new
technologies and revise planning process of
standards and systems
What needs to be done
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Develop typologies of developing country
cases to better understand options and
costs
Establish “climate-proof” planning and
screening mythologies, tools, and operating
guides especially for water resources and
water services management
Increase resiliency of the irrigated
agricultural to hydrologic and climate
variability, including development of a new
generation of drought and disease resistant
seeds and breeds
Concluding remarks
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Challenges of climate change and hydrologic
variability are real and must be addressed
Impact on water services and water
management is significant with serious
implications on economies and poverty.
Adaptation to variability and climate change
must become an integral part of water
resources management and water services
delivery
The World Bank is committed to address
adaptation in the water sector and is ready
to work with partners
Thank You