Transcript Adaptation to climate change in the World Bank - An

Adaptation to
Climate Change and
the World Bank
Ian Noble
The poor will face the greatest
challenges from climate change.
100%
Double in the 2000s?
80%
Percentage affected
2 Billion people in developing
countries affected by a climate related
disaster in the 1990s.
LDC
60%
Dev'ing
CIT
40%
Dev'ed
20%
4,000
Number affected (Millions)
0%
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
3,000
Dev'ed
CIT
2,000
Dev'ing
LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
40 to 80% of the population in
developing countries versus a few %
in more developed countries
Guidance for TNA
Identify vulnerable sectors
Most development
decisions
Prioritise
Local social, economic,
environmental and political
pressures
Compile list of measures
Prioritise the
list of measures
Developing
Country
Climate
Change
Development
decision
Other
Lenders &
Donors
World
Bank
Investment flow
UNFCCC
Billions $ "invested" in developing countries annually
Adaptation
Mitigation
IDA
0
WB
2
4
6
8
10
ODA
Private
0
50
100
150
200
250
Climate change is already affecting
natural and social systems
And is relevant to
project planning
Implicit: “And your
project could be next!”
Messages to my Bank
colleagues
Ethiopia
Climate variability is already a
major impediment to development.
A water rich
developing
country, but
with GDP still
tied to yearly
rainfall
variations
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
0
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
-20
1982
-5
-10
-15
-40
rainfall variability
-60
-20
GDP growth
-25
Ag GDP growth
-80
-30
year
Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
From Claudia Sadoff
Ethiopia
Including climate variability gives a
different picture of growth prospects
3.50
•Smoothed
(average rainfall)
•A simulated 2year drought
•Realistic
variability
3.00
1%
2.50
Annual Rates
Model of 12
years of growth
using
Smoothed
2.00
Drought
1.50
Variability
1.00
0.50
0.00
GDP Grow th rate
Ag GDP
Non-Ag GDP
Ethiopia
Using variable rainfall gives a more
balanced outcome for investments in
irrigation versus roads
GDP Growth w/Variable Rainfall
7
7
6
6
5
GDP grow th rate
4
Ag GDP grow th rate
3
NAg GDP grow th rate
2
Annual Growth
Annual Growth
GDP Growth w/Smoothed Rainfall
5
GDP grow th rate
4
Ag GDP grow th rate
3
NAg GDP grow th rate
2
1
1
0
0
Base
Irrig.
Roads
Irri&Roads
Base
Irrig.
Roads
Irri&Roads
Climate change is a
development issue – right now
Should we use the
term “climate
proofing”?
A climate risk approach
Climate risk management means that the
Bank should assess,
and where necessary act upon,
the threats and opportunities that result from
both existing and future climate variability,
including those deriving from climate change,
in all project and country level activities.
Sub text: Climate volatility is
another factor that must be
taken into account in
development planning
How are we going?
Currently only
17 out of 73 CASs and
4 out of 35 completed PRSPs
refer to the potential effects of
climate change.
Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a
clear statement about
adaptation
Pitfalls
• “Projectisation” of adaptation
– Separates adaptation form core
development planning
– Often embroils adaptation in institutional
rivalries
• Not appreciating the immediacy
• Endless loop of “better
information”
– Downscaling & impact modelling
• Seeking the ideal at the expense
of the pragmatic
– E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’
synergies
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers –
within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in
mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into
planning tools such as CEA
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers –
within Bank and in client countries
– Simple screening tool
– Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact
assessment
– Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic
analyses
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in
mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into
planning tools such as CEA
Structure of AP Analysis
Meteorological
data
Hydrological
data
Agricultural
data
Drought mitigation
strategies
Agro-meteorological
model
Crop yield and production,
livestock losses model
Climate change
scenarios
Rainfall simulator
Planting
areas model

Hydrological
model
Probabilistic drought risk
assessment model
Direct agricultural loss
estimates
Macro
Economic
analysis
Direct and
indirect
economic losses
State fiscal
exposure
Risk financing
arrangements
Integrated Tool
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project
managers – within Bank and in client
countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience
in mainstreaming adaptation
– Effective use of GEF resources
– These are critical “pump priming” funds
• Move climate variability and change issues
into planning tools such as CEA
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers –
within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in
mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into
planning tools such as Country Assistance
Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs
– Approach with caution
– Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc)
before appearing to threaten with a “stick”
Next steps
• Improve tools available to project managers –
within Bank and in client countries
• Pilot projects to gain practical experience in
mainstreaming adaptation
• Move climate variability and change issues into
planning tools such as CEA
Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as
other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange
rates, social volatilities etc) in development
planning
A Screening & Design Tool
for Considering Adaptation to
Climate Change
Screening & design tool
• Target Audience:
Project developers
(national, bilateral and multilateral)
and assessors; NGOs
• Not community level
decision making
– This is a different, and
critically important task
– Seek compatibility and
synergies
• Purpose: Provide a
first, quick check of
potential issues that
might arise in project
design or implementation
• Provide a lead into
appropriate knowledge &
experience
• Increase awareness of
the issues of climate
variability and change
Contact Ian Noble World Bank
[email protected]
Screening & design tool
• Based on existing
knowledge
• Captured via expert
systems to identify key
activities that might be
sensitive to climate
variability & change
• Qualitative climate change
data based combining
models and current trends
• Qualitative assessment of
risks and opportunities
• Pointers to appropriate
literature, projects, tolls
and experts
• Levels of advice
provided
– Red flag – adaptation
issues are important and
further follow up is strongly
recommended
– Yellow flag – some
concerns, which should be
checked
– Orange – Not enough
known to assess
– Green flag – No adaptation
issues foreseen
– Blue flag – Positive action
for adaptation
Contact Ian Noble World Bank
[email protected]
A framework for a
screening & design tool
What do project managers need?
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
A framework for a
screening & design tool
Bring together the expanding
database of information
Document database
Project database
Additional tools
Experts
Good Practice
Interpretation
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
A framework for a
screening & design tool
Provide a screening tool to guide
user to appropriate material
Document database
Project database
Experts
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Projected direction
of climate change
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
(eg average rainfall, rainfall
variability, temperature etc)
Activities
Climate
parameter
Climate
sensitivit
y
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
Risk
elements &
Location
A framework for a
screening & design tool
Based on best expert advice?
Document database
Project database
Experts
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Projected direction
of climate change
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
(eg average rainfall, rainfall
variability, temperature etc)
Activities
Climate
parameter
Climate
sensitivit
y
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
Risk
elements &
Location
A framework for a
screening & design tool
What does the user see?
Document database
Project database
Experts
Additional tools
Location
Climate
parameter
Activities
A series
of rainfall
(eg average rainfall,
variability, temperature etc)
questions
Climate
parameter
about
their
Climate
sensitivit
project
y
Projected direction
of climate change
Leading to
…
User Guidance on
risk avoidance and
adaptation options
Climate sensitivity
for an activity
gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
Direction of
climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
gdfsgfd
gdfsgfd
Relevant
Risk
guidance
&
toelements
…
Location
Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change TACC
Help about the
question and
about each
option
Ability to
change ones
mind
Users are asked to
identify the location of
their project.
This can either be via
lat-long coordinates or
pointing to a map
The underlying climate change
data base will be based on expert
assessment of the various models
and of recent trends.
A composite map representing
climate change for each variable
over the next 20 to 30 years will
be prepared.
Project
Indian Agricultural Reconstruction
Run
Northern Regions Version 2
Climate
Summary
RptClim
Annual rainfall
Rainfall variability
Annual temperature
Printed
summary
NOTE: The coding to identify the location and best climate projections has NOT yet
been implemented in this prototype.
Summary of climate projections for your site ...
No significant change in annual rainfall is expected
Rainfall variability is expected to increase moderately This will result in more frequent periods
of unusually wet or dry conditions.
Annual mean temperatures are expected to increase moderately (e.g. by 0.5 to 1 °C by
2050).
R
R
Y
Y
Flag if climate change less
than currently projected
Flag
Best Projection
RptOutC
We have identified the following
activities in your project that may
Activity Code
be sensitive to climate change:
Explanation
A_AS_Seas
planting seasonal crops, fruit,
The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or
vegetables or herbs.
variability at the site of your project. You should check
whether current crops and any planned introductions
will remain suitable in the changed climate. .....
Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your
project. You should check whether current crops and
any planned introductions will remain suitable in the
changed climate.
A_ir_Tank
construction of earthen dams or
Your project site is projected to have increased rainfall
tanks.
and/or increased rainfall variability. Ensure that the
design of the check dams and or eathern dams
(tanks) will cope with heavier flows of water.
A_ir_drip
drip irrigation.
Your project site is projected to have significantly
increased rainfall variability. This could lead to
extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable
coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail,
then extended periods without use can lead to
deterioration and blockage of the drip system.
Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.
A_ir_flood
flood irrigation.
You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are
projected to increase significantly at your project site.
The higher temperatures will increase evaporative
losses and probably demand for water by the crops.
Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as
drip or sprinkler.
A_ir_ShallowWell construction of shallow ground wells. Your project site is projected to have decreased
Flag if climate change
greater than currently
To be added
To be added
R
R
Y
R
R
Y
Y
Y
G
Y
Y
Y
Y
A_ir_drip
37
Y
Y
A_ir_flood
drip irrigation.
Author & Date
Source
Srivastava, R.C. and Agricultural Water
Upadhayaya, A. 1998 Management, Vol. 36
Pp: 71-83
3
flood irrigation.
Author & Date
Goyal, R.K. 2004
57
Hillel, D. 2000
Your project site is projected to have significantly increased
rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells.
Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note
that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use
can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system.
Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers.
Title
Summary
Study on Feasibility of
The authors discuss some factors affecting the economics of
Drip Irrigation in Shallow drip irrigation in plain areas of Eastern India with good quality
Groundwater Zones of
groundwater at shallow depths. They found that no criteria
Eastern India
were being used for drip irrigation in this area, other than
subsidy and interest on part of the farmer. Through a study of
sugarcane, they identified yield grain ratio, electricity charges,
irrigation requirement and depth of groundwater as important
factors affecting application method.
You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are
projected to increase significantly at your project site. The
higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and
probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more
efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler.
Source
Title
Summary
Agricultural Water
Sensitivity of
The author studied the effects of change in temperature, solar
Management, Vol. 69. Pp. 1-11 Evapotransipiration to
radiation, windspeed and vapor pressure on
Global Warming: A Case evapotranspiration in arid areas of Rajasthan. Based on the
Study of Arid Zone of
research, he suggests roughly a 14% increase in total ET
Rajasthan
demand with a 20% increase in temperature.
Evapotranspiration seemed to be less sensitive, however, to
net changes in solar radiation, windspeed, and vapor
pressure.
World Bank
No. 20842
Pgs: 92
A_ir_Shallo construction of
wWell
shallow ground wells.
Author & Date
Source
4
Shah, T. and Raju,
Water Policy, Vol. 3. Pp. 521K.V. 2001
536.
Salinity Management for
Sustainable Irrigation:
Integrating Science,
Environment and
Economics
Title
Rethinking
Rehabilitation: Socioecology of Tanks in
Rajasthan
Location
.\KB - Sci lit
India\Feasibility_drip_irrigation_Sriva
stavaRC&UpadhayayaA_AgWaterMn
gmnt_Vol36_Issue1_1998.pdf
Location
.\KB - Sci lit
India\Sensitivity_evapotranspiration_
global_warming_Rajasthan_GoyalRK
_AgWtrManmt_69_2004.pdf
This report discusses the ways in which poor irrigation and
.\KB drainage practices can result in waterlogging and salinity. It
General\Salinity_management_irrigat
looks at salinity control and waterlogging reduction as well as ion_Hillel_WB_20842_2000.pdf
at early warning systems that can detect incipient land
degradation. The paper emphasizes that irrigation can only
be sustainable when used in the proper circumstances with
appropriate measures.
Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall
and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce
recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into
account in considering whether more shallow wells are
justified within the region.
Summary
Regarding plans to rehabilitate 1200 large tanks in Rajasthan,
the authors believe a change in thinking is required from
viewing tanks as irrigation structures to seeing them as multiuse socio-ecological constructs. In recognizing various
stakeholder groups, their social value is likely to increase.
Location
.\KB - Sci lit
India\Rethinking_tank_rehabilitation_
ShahT&RajuKV_WaterPolicy_3_200
1.pdf
5
Sharma, A. 2003
International Water
management Institute (IWMI),
Working Paper 62.
Pgs: 16
Revitalizing Irrigation
Tanks: Empirical
Findings from
Ananthapur District,
Andhra Pradesh
The study assesses the reasons behind the decline of tank
irrigation in Andhra Pradesh. The author claims that most
current tank irrigation projects – including those carried out by
the World Bank – are promoting a culture of communitybased management that diverges from traditional, historic
patterns of tank use. He believes that innovative ideas and
solutions need to be considered, and that tanks should be
viewed as more than flow irrigation structures.
.\KB - Sci lit
India\Revitalizing_irrigation_tanks_S
harmaA_IWMI_WorkingPaper_62.pd
f
19
Selvarajan, S. 2001
Indian Council of Agricultural
Research (ICAR)
Pgs: 7
Sustaining India's
Irrigation Infrastructure
This paper provides a brief overview of the status of canal,
tank and groundwater irrigation in India. The author claims
that the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure can be
improved through stakeholder participation and institutional
development.
.\KB General\Sustaining_India_irrigation_i
nfrastructure_ICAR_PolicyBrief15_20
01.pdf
24
Sakurai, T. and
Palanisami, K. 2001
Agricultural Economics, Vol.
25
Pp: 273-283
Tank Irrigation
Management as a Local
Common Property: the
Case of Tamil Nadu,
India
This study uses twelve sample villages in Tamil Nadu to
compare the efficiency of rice production between tank
irrigation and well irrigation systems, and thus arrive at an
appropriate management scheme for water. The analysis
indicates that producers will use a combination of both tanks
and wells, in evolutionary-stable equilibrium, rather than
predominantly use one or the other.
.\KB - Sci lit
India\Tank_irrigation_managament_
SakuraiT&PalanisamiK_AgricEcono
mics_2001.pdf
Printed list
of
documents
An identified
climate sensitive
activity – yellow
flag
An explanation of
the rating
Useful documents
Most documents can
be displayed from
the Tool
R
planting seasonal
crops, fruit,
A_AS_Seas vegetables or herbs.
Author & Date
48
World Bank 2004
Source
Project performance
Assessment Report
No. 29124
Title
Uttar Pradesh Sodic
Lands Reclamation
Project
The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or
variability at the site of your project. You should check
whether current crops and any planned introductions will
remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher
temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You
should check whether current crops and any planned
introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate.
Summary
Loc
The project carried out large-scale reclamation of sodic soils, .\KB - WB
thereby increasing returns to many small and marginal
India\Uttar_Prade
farmers. Large tracts of agricultural land in the command
mtReprt29124_W
areas of major canals had become increasingly waterlogged,
saline, and alkaline over time. Through provision of effective
drainage networks, improved foodgrain and salt-tolerant
horticulture production techniques, and land tenure security
as an incentive to farmers to participate, the project was able
to surpass its physical targets. However, the project faced
problems in implementation, partly due to institutional
constraints. For various reasons, the project is not likely to be
sustainable.
The tool is being designed and
implemented initially in Excel.
It has a number of tools to help users to
expand or modify the knowledge base.
Later it will be converted to a web-based
script.
The tool and many of the documents will
fit on a CD
Adaptation in the Bank
• Climate change is already a
threat to development
• A risk management approach
(tackle current climate variability and
climate change)
• Learn through pilots and ESW
• Develop good practice guidance
and tools for project designers
• Goal to treat climate volatility as
an essential part of
development planning