Danube Region

download report

Transcript Danube Region

Központja
Kutatások
MTA Regionális
of Sciences
Academy
Centre for Regional Studies Hungarian
“To seek Europe is to make it! Europe exists through its search for
the infinite - and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, An adventure called Europe
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe
ET2050
Danube Region
Transnational Regional Report
Brussels, 19.03.2012.
GÁL, Zoltán (PHD, Dr habil.)
[email protected]
Centre for Economic & Regional Studies,
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
University of Kaposvár, Faculty of Economics
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
The Danube region: Geographical endowments
The Danube Region
(countries covered by our research)
3
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
European deadlock and the most fragmented
transnational region
•
•
•
•
•
•
One of the most fragmented, diverse and checkered territory of Europe
Characterised by a dominance of long-term disintegration processes (empires  multiethnic states - dissolution of Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia & USSR)
Modern fragmentation has several dimensions:
– 8 EU and 7 non-EU members
– 2 Eurozone members
– Non-members of Schengen zone (Romania and Bulgaria)
– Accession country (Croatia) & EU candidates (Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia)
– Non-negotiating countries about EU accession (Moldova, Ukraine, BosniaHerzegovina, Albania)
The differences between sub-regions are larger than between countries.
Historical tensions block connections, and hinder the full integration of the EU member
states.
Ethnically sensitive territorial protection (reactive values)
Modernization slope
Changes in the per capita GDP in Hungary and in the
CEE&SEE countries in comparison to the Western European
average (12 counrtries =100%), 1870-2010
(International Geary-Khamis dollars, 1990)
1,20
1,00
0,80
Hun/EU-12
59%
0,60
52%
0,40
45%
WE-12
59%
52%
56%
CEE/EU-12
50%
45%
51%
44%
41%
41%
44%
48%
43%
39,6%
38%
39%
32%
39%
38%
40%
33%
27%
0,20
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
03
20
00
19
96
19
92
19
90
19
85
19
78
19
70
19
65
19
56
19
50
19
40
19
33
19
25
19
13
19
00
18
70
0,00
Population and dependent economies
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
•
Demographic trends: still younger but rapidly ageing:
– Several economically advanced regions have ageing populations.
– Shrinking population influences the expected development course, consumption needs, and
even the use of the environment.
– The high number and proportion of the Roma population (a specific feature of the Danube
region)
•
Migration trends:
– Internal: economic decline of factor supply via deskilling via internal, intra-regional (within the
Danube region) and international migration.
– External: large masses already appear on the external borders of the region from North Africa,
the Middle East and the former USSR.
•
Economic trends: despite European catching-up processes, the large economic and
territorial inequalities can not be eliminated in dependent economies due to constant
capital scarcities
– The sharp dividing line between German and Austrian, as well as post-socialist space persists
– CEE economic differentiation: zones alongside the main corridors in CEE are heavily linked to
FDI and to Western European industrial networks (automotive)
– The unambiguous winners of the process are capital regions
– More ambiguous mixture of FDI-driven reindustrialisation and the surviving domestic industrial
capacities with rapid deindustrializing
– Weak innovation: R&D investment relative to GDP funded by the business sector – except in
Austria and the Czech Republic – was low
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
Development level by per capita GDP (PPP, % of
EU27 average)
Note: The numerical value in the upper box shows the ranking of the individual region within the
sample. The value in the lower box shows the change in the region’s ranking between 2000 and
2008.
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
The change of the relative development level of capital
cities and capital regions
in the EU 1995–2009
Capital city or region
Country
Per capita GDP as a percentage of EU15 average
1995
Stockholm
Praha
Madrid
Budapest
Bratislava
Bucuresti
Attiki
Lisboa e Vale do Tejo
Uusimaa
Közép-Magyarország
Mazowieckie
SVE
CZ
ESP
HU
SK
RO
GR
PT
FINN
HU
PL
196
49
103
49
41
13
70
84
175
38
24
2009
192
123
128
88
121
41
115
95
190
65
55
Change
-4,0
+74,0
+25,0
+39,0
+80,0
+28,0
+45,0
+11,0
+15,0
+27,0
+31,0
Polarised development and networks
(urban, transport & energy network)
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
External peripherization: CEE urban network traditionally oriented towards Western
European urban system  cyclical disintegrations increased peripherization within Europe
Internal peripherization: A polycentric macroregional urban system constituted by
monocentric national urban systems and a fragmented rural network,
– Danube a true axis of urbanisation: high concentration of population & MNCs
– Clear divide between capital cities and secondary centers
– The Balkans complex fragmentation on a national (ethnical) basis.
Proximity/distance still matters: delayed network development, capital-centric in
comparison with WE, historically influenced redundancies (due to changing national
boundaries )
Political centralism preferred capital city-based monocentric national networks with limited
border permeability
Budapest-centric TENs, development- vis-á-vis environmentally motivated transport
development (high share of highway investment ), hollowing-out of peripheries
EU energy policy influenced by: secure supply, sustainability, market liberalisation 
diversification, inherent contradictions
– South Stream, Nabucco and “Blue Stream” gas pipelines
Increased energy consumption reliance on nuclear and fossil-based generation
Renewable energy deployment motivated by EU targets
The European transport corridors (Trans European
Networks) in the Danube region
10
Scenarios for the Danube region
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
1 The scenario of successful integration
•
•
•
•
•
EU will overcome the current difficulties and the expansion will successfully continue
Within approx. 15 years Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania may
also become the members of the European Union.
If the euro gets over the current difficulties, new countries from the regions are likely to join the eurozone within 15 years
The poorest regions of the EU member states receive considerable support from the EU Structural
Funds. (Only three are currently ineligible for funding as convergence regions)
Among the main challenges are to improve the north-south transport connections, increase border
permeability (bridges) and improve the living conditions of Europe’s largest Roma community (8% of the
total population)
2 The scenario of Central European cooperation
•
•
•
•
•
•
In this scenario, it is assumed that EU enlargement will progress more slowly than previously assumed.
It does not mean the disintegration of the European Union. Rather, more intra-regional cooperation
(Visegrad countries) takes place, which partly compensates the slowing of EU enlargement.
In this regional collaboration scheme the importance of the Danube will increase for landlocked
countries.
Energy security, the diversification of energy supply should also be achieved through cooperative within
the region.
Cooperation among former Yugoslav member states may gain a new momentum.
Germany, Austria and Italy lead co-operation initiatives
MTA Regionális Kutatások Központja
Scenarios for the Danube region
3. ‘Worst case’ scenario, when the disputes and conflicts between the countries of the
Danube region make cooperation and integration impossible
• Debates between the countries themselves make any kind of joint action impossible. Of
course, this scenario is extreme in the current form, but draws attention to the recently more
or less hidden dangers threatening the Danube region.
– Conflicts with neighbours related to the ethnic minorities
– Conflicts arising from realised or even not accomplished projects
– Debates over the delimitation of border (former Yugoslavian border zones)
– Conflicts of disguised protectionism
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION