Transcript Friday, June 13, 2014 Endnote Speaker J. Peck

Vision and Vital
Uncertainties for Nursing
Futures
Jonathan C. Peck
President & Senior Futurist
June 13, 1014
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand Why
Aspirations Matter
Explore Uncertainty in
Alternative Scenarios
Assess Nursing
Likelihoods and
Preferences
Envision Nursing for
Health & Wellbeing
Aspirations Model
IAF’s approach:
Aspirational Futures
Forecasts Across Four Scenarios
Macro environment
 US economy
 Culture
 Government
Health
 Definition
 Status
 Locus
Health Care




Health Care Delivery
Health Insurance Coverage
Health Information Technology
National Health Care Spending/GDP
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Personalized
medicine – with
clouds of data
Many diseases
prevented
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Innovations: Avatars
& Adaptive trials
Focus on health
Social Determinants
Greater Disparities
Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to
Medicare and Medicaid
Economic Gaps Grow
Political Extremes
Pronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
2020: 75 million uninsured
Business ethics trump medical ethics
Affluent get medical advances
Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics
Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Cultural shifts affect
health, policy and care
to change local
economics
Success: ending food
deserts, e.g., Harlem
Children’s Zone
Political change; shared
vision; cooperation
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Local food &
manufacturing
“Personal data clouds”;
Massive community data
Prevention/ Preemption
of chronic diseases;
Models & Simulations;
Adaptive Trials
Personalized
Vital Signs
Digital health
agents, gaming,
social
networking
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
From PCMH to Community Centered
Health Home
Most providers integrated, capitated
Healthy communities; self care decreases
demand for physician services and
hospital care
Community
Centered
Health
Home
Triple Aim
Effective self-care
Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Innate human drive for healthy growth
Systems biology evolves into health
ecology in all health domains
Leaders creating environments for health
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youth
Reality TV shows what a “good death”
looks like
Health care incorporates new patient’s
values
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Health care spending capped locally
Avatars for self-care reduce demand for
medical interventions
2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory
Scenario 4: A Culture of Health
Likelihood and Preferability
Likelihood
Scenario #1
Slow Reform, Better Health
Scenario #2
Health If You Can Get It
Scenario #3
Big Data, Big Health Gains
Scenario #4
A Culture of Health
Preferability
Recommend New Health Roles
Recommend Tech For Health Metrics
Recommend New Leadership
Recommend Remove Barriers to Health
From 2032 Back To 2014
Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health
and Wellbeing in 2032.
 What would you be doing in 2014 to
help?
 Are there new health roles for nurses?
 How will you measure nursing progress?
 Who inspires you to shape nursing’s
futures?
Thank you!
Jonathan Peck
President & Senior Futurist
Institute for Alternative Futures
703-684-5880
www.altfutures.org
[email protected]