Transcript No Slide Title

Scenario Workshop • November 4, 2002
Round 5:
Scenarios & Strategies Assignment
Based on the work done previously, we have prepared a scenario matrix for your team to
work with.
The horizontal axis represents "motive," the reason(s) for development of space, and the
vertical axis represents "means," a method which contributes to the realization of the motive.
Please do the following 4 steps during the next 60 minutes:
Step 1:
Based on this matrix, develop a 2 -3 sentence description of the scenario
that would logically emerge for each of the 4 quadrants.
Step 2:
Name each scenario with the catchiest name you can come up with.
Step 3:
Identify which of the 4 scenarios you feel is most likely. (Circle it on your
report.)
Step 4:
If this "most likely" scenario is positive (supports development of the
space movement), then develop a list of 3 major strategies to enhance and promote
the scenario. If this "most likely" scenario is negative (impedes development of the
space movement), then develop a list of 3 major strategies to counteract the scenario.
Propulsion
Breakthrough(s)
+-
+-
++
Science
Team 1
--
-+
+-
--
Means Dimensions:
(Vertical Axis)
Propulsion Breakthrough
Education
Economic Development
(Financial Means)
R&D Funding
Living in Space
Infrastructure
R&D
Funding
Competition
(China)
+-
++
Team 4
-+
-+
--
+-
Propulsion
Breakthrough (s)
--
+-
++
Team 5
-+
-+
--
Living in Space
Role in
Homeland
Defense
++
Team 3
Team 2
Economic Development
(Financial Means)
Urge to Explore
& Tourism
Climate Change Role
Competition (China)
Homeland Defense
Political Will
Urge to Explore & Tourism
Science
Commerce & Industry in Space
Economic Development
(Financial Means)
++
Climate
Change Role
Motivation Dimensions:
(Horizontal Axis)
Political Will
++
Team 6
--
-+
Team #: 1
Vertical Axis: Means
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Keith Cox
Isaiah White
Ken Young
Jerry Bell
Role in Climate
Change Mitigation
Propulsion Breakthrough(s)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Global View”
“Weather Master”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Status Quo”
“Crystal Ball”
likeliest quadrant
”Role in Climate Change
Mitigation" refers to the
involvement of space science and
presence in the mitigation of the
negative effects of global climate
change. To the right of the matrix
indicates a significant role for
space in the mitigation effort; to the
left indicates that space presence
provides insignificant benefit.
“Propulsion Breakthrough(s)"
refers to future breakthroughs in
propulsion technology that
significantly reduce the cost of
space flight. To the top of the
matrix indicates that Propulsion
Breakthroughs are made; to the
bottom indicates that Propulsion
Breakthroughs are not made.
Scenario 1:
“Global View”
+-
Description: With a propulation breakthrough but no significant improvement in climate forecasting
and/or control, the number of flights and hence, the number of weather satellites can be deployed to give
total, redundant coverage.
Scenario 2: “Weather Master”
++
Description: With propulsive breakthrough and significant weather control methodology improvements,
the climate could actually be mitigated for the good of humankind (like dispersing young hurricanes).
Scenario 3: “Climate Crystal Ball”
-+
Description: With no propulsive breakthrough but with significant climate control and observation /
prediction improvements, improved models and thus mitigation predications can be achieved.
Scenario 4: “Status Quo” Mark Twain Quadrant (most likely)
--
Description: Continue with current space capabilities for observation, climate predication, limited
climate prediction
Strategy 1: Description: Better weather forecasting models and observation capabilities need to be developed.
Strategy 2: Description: Study and experiment on significant climate control methodologies should be funded.
Strategy 3: Description: Continue to strive for non-chemical propulsion breakthroughs.
Team #: 2
Vertical Axis: Means
Economic Development / Financial Means
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Pie in the Sky”
“Reach for the Stars”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Duck + Cover”
“Best Idea Wins”
Science
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Shaman Mullick
Mike Shaw
Mike Snead
Henry Brandhorst
likeliest quadrant.
”Science" refers to the
desire and intent of society
to conduct space-based
scientific endeavors. To
the right of the matrix
indicates a high degree of
motive to do space science;
to the left indicates that
society has low motivation
to do space science.
“Economic
Development/Financial
Means" refers to the status
of global economic
development. To the top of
the matrix indicates that
Economic Development is
strong and investment
funds are available; to the
bottom indicates that the
economy is weak and few
funds are available.
Scenario 1: Name: Pie in the Sky
+-
Description: Opportunity for stimulating new ideas in science and science education. Have to sell.
Scenario 2: Name: Reach for the Stars
++
Description: Robust science investigation throughout the solar system and beyond
Scenario 3: Name: Best Idea Wins
-+
Description: Highly prioritized, heavily reviewed science activities addressing central questions.
Scenario 4: Name: Duck + Cover
--
Description: Live on past glory & successes, wait for new opportunities.
Strategy 1: Description: Increase efforts to sustain science interst throughout K-12, sell as means to solving
“human capital” problems in government and industry (science & engineering folks)
Strategy 2: Description: Establish new emphasis on obtaining royalties + licensing fees (etc.) from government
patents and use part to fund new science.
Strategy 3: Description: Sustaining interest in working in space program by creating exciting programs in
industry/government - seek to capture interest of media, popular stars, etc.
Team #: 3
Vertical Axis: Means
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Competition (China)
R&D Funding
John Dorsey
Ray Erikson
Mark
Lovely
Bob
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Wall Street
in Space”
“Return of the
Space Race”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Just Say No
(to Space)”
“Road to Hell”
likeliest quadrant.
"Competition (China)" refers to
the development of the Chinese
space program and its stated
intent to land a man on the moon.
To the right of the matrix indicates
a high degree of motive provided
by the Chinese activity to other
nations; to the left indicates that
the Chinese activities provide low
motive for other nations to
develop space activities.
"R&D Funding" means the
availability of funds in US
government and industry for
space-related R&D. To the top of
the matrix indicates that
availability of R&D funds is high;
to the bottom indicates that few
funds are available.
Scenario 1: Name: Wall Street in Space
+-
Description: • Lack of military/nationalistic threat: Robust commercial development
• US Regains / enhances space leadership role
• Technology breakthroughs
• Good investment returns
Scenario 2: Name: Return of the Space Race
++
Description: • Space-inspired investment in China diminishes US leadership
• China provides another level of competition economically
• Strong economy in China spurs perception of China as a military threat to US
Scenario 3: Name: Road to Hell
-+
Description: • US Space Industry continues decline
• US Concedes space to China (space not worth it)
• US national priorities forced in other direction
Scenario 4: Name: Just Say No (to space)
--
Description: • World priorities elsewhere
• Economic decay
• Environmental disruption
• Dangers of space flight perceived as not worth the risk
Strategy 1: Description: Team with Chinese: “If you can’t beat’em, join’em.”
Strategy 2: Description: Focus existing R&D monies on near-term and/or self-supporting technologies
Strategy 3: Description: Low cost (relative to actual space work) campaigns to re-educate public on benefits of
space development (change perceptions; build support).
Team #: 4
Vertical Axis: Means
Economic Development / Financial Means
Urge to Explore
& Tourism
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Ron Kohl
Zafar Taqus
Gale Allen
Dave Christensen
Mike Canga
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Why Bother”
“When Can I Go
Vegas in Space”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Thanks, But I
Like My Cave”
“All Dressed
Up + No
Way to Go” likeliest quadrant.
”Urge to Explore &
Tourism” refers to the degree
of interest on the part of
society in space exploration
and tourism for its own sake.
To the right of the matrix
indicates a high of interest; to
the left indicates a low degree
of interest.
“Economic
Development/Financial
Means" refers to the status of
global economic
development. To the top of
the matrix indicates that
Economic Development is
strong and investment funds
are available; to the bottom
indicates that the economy is
weak and few funds are
available.
Scenario 1: Name: “Why Bother” (Thanks - But No Thanks!)
+-
Description: There is little or no interest in space.
Scenario 2: Name: “When Can I Go”
++
Description: Need an affordable means to get there and a place to stay / visit.
Scenario 3: Name: “All Dressed Up + No Way or No Where To Go”
-+
Description
Scenario 4: Name: “Thanks, But I Like My Cave”
--
(No Interest, No Money)
Description
Strategy 1: Description: Need government subsidy for infrastructure (ie, TVA & railroads + aircraft mail)
Strategy 2: Description: Develop master business plans (Hotels: “Vegas in Space”
Strategy 3: Description” Space Tourist’s Lottery
Team #: 5
Vertical Axis: Means
Economic Development / Financial Means
Urge to Explore
& Tourism
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Kay Cox
Chuck Larsen
Tom Diegelman
Al Holt
Graham O’Neil
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Space Hostel”
“Fort Hope”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Hostile Space”
“ISS Plus”
likeliest quadrant.
Scenario 1: Name: Space Hostel
+-
"Role in Homeland Defense” refers
to the use of space as a venue for
homeland defense activities. To the
right of the matrix indicates a high
applicability of space in homeland
defense activities; to the left indicates
little role for space in homeland
defense.
”Living in Space" refers to civilians
living in space on a permanent or
semi-permanent basis. To the top of
the matrix indicates that civilians are
living in space; to the bottom indicates
that people are not.
** Note: Order of magnitude: the 3person space station crew does not
count as “living in space.” Consider
50 - 100 people a minimum. Please
also consider what constitutes
“homeland” in the event that there are
off-earth settlements.
Description: Predominant tourism & commercialism; little joint support for HD/MIC human space;
Logistics & test support for HD
Scenario 2: Name: Fort Hope
++
Description: Substantial military base of operations; large human presence. Substantial human
activities support, maintain, extend HD assets
Scenario 3: Name: ISS- Plus
-+
Description: No change in human presence. Support for R&D & maintenance for remote platforms.
Small scale HD R&D, Servicing, space defense testing. No commercial.
Scenario 4: Name: Hostile Space
--
Description: Closer ties with DoD; Investment in R&D. No increased human activity, effective denial
of space for military activities - robotics & autonomous operations.
Strategy 1: Description: Closer DoD ties
Strategy 2: Description: R&D investment
Strategy 3: Description
Team #: 6
Vertical Axis: Means
Propulsion Breakthrough(s)
Steve Gonzalez
Steve Gonda
Art Sullivan
Ken Cox
Louis Fussell
Political Will
Horizontal Axis: Motive
Likeliest
quadrant.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-+
++
“Gold Rush”
“Off and Running
to the Planets”
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
--
+-
“Circle the
Wagons”
“Keep on Truckin’”
”Political Will” refers to the
existence of support among
political leaders for the space
movement. To the right of the
matrix indicates a high of
support provided by political
leaders; to the left indicates
low support for the space
movement.
“Propulsion
Breakthrough(s)" refers to
future breakthroughs in
propulsion technology that
significantly reduce the cost of
space flight. To the top of the
matrix indicates that
Propulsion Breakthroughs are
made; to the bottom indicates
that Propulsion Breakthroughs
are not made.
Scenario 1: Name: Gold Rush
+-
Description: Private sector takes lead in space. Markets develop for space-based products.
New education/business/research partnerships develop.
Scenario 2: Name: Off and Running to the Planets
++
Description: Commercial access to space. Humans able to go further; larger, more permanent colonies.
Agency with technology is public hero. Excitement about space globally. Escape from Milky Way.
Scenario 3: Name: Keep on Truckin’
-+
Description: Government funding for a propulsion system - no result. Decreasing public support.
Large advocacy propgram for effort. Funding redirected towards reducing risk in slow space flight / basic
research / space goals closer to earth, etc.
Scenario 4: Name: Circle the Wagons
--
Description: Sense of lost potential in NASA community. Government investment on other fronts.
Mitigation of risks of longer space flight.
Strategy 1: Description: Positive reinforcement to pro-space politicians
Strategy 2: Description: Communicate technology successes. Get media on our side.
Strategy 3: Description: Employ effective leadership & management.