Transcript SOTUR2010: Final Scenario Development

Strategic Options for Integrating Transportation Innovations and
Urban Revitalization (SOTUR)
Stakeholder Scenario Building: Imagining Urban Futures
Development of Scenario Storylines
Prof. C. Zegras
Scenario development
in the context of
the SOTUR project
Methodology for scenario development
Workshop 1: Factors affecting urban
revitalization and driving forces
Break-out sessions:
• Discussion of factors affecting urban
revitalization in the cities of Coimbra,
Lisbon, and Porto
• Identification of common driving forces
• Ranking of factors in terms of
importance and uncertainty
Important
15
6
5
14
3
7
Certain
11
Physical
9
1
2
12
Political
Economic
Uncertain
10
Societal
Technique
8
13
4
Not important
Importance
Public
Space
Ageing
Isolation of
Historical
Center
Population
Tax Policies
Stakeholders
Facilitators/
Catalists
Ex.: SRU
Parking
Location
Historical
Center/
World
Heritage
Administrative Costs
Property
Administrative Inertia
Land Owners’
Behaviors
Attractiveness
for Middle
Class,
Cohort 30-40
Lack of a
Concept
for the
City
Renovation
Costs vs
New
Construction
Costs
Academic
Community
50000
Students
House Rental
Markets
InterMunicipal
Planning
Social
Cohesion
Expectations
Vacant
Buildings
Security
Policy
Uncertainty
Planning
Economic
Social
Workshop 1: Output
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Political/

Administrative 
Economy


Demographic/ 
Societal
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


Technology
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


Economic growth (purchasing power, etc.)
Consumer access to credit for housing
Producer access to credit for real estate
........
Capital city-centrism (public investments and policies)
Effectiveness of enforcement (e.g., of zoning, expropriations, definition of
preservation and heritage)
More movement to “ideal” land and property tax system: e.g., Real estate
taxes penalizing long-term vacant property, Split-rate property taxes
……..
Influx of students
Average population age in city centre
Capacity to attract young middle class families
Consumption preferences (shopping, healthcare, education)
........
Transportation Technologies Size
Transportation technologies combustion: speed of adoption of cleaner,
quieter
Communication technologies e.g. virtual travel, tele-presence
........
Methodology for scenario development
Economy
Political/Administrative
Social/Demographic
Technology
Workshop 2: Driver states
Economy
Economic growth (purchasing power, etc.)
Consumer access to credit for housing
Producer access to credit for real estate
Infrastructure provider access to credit
Real Estate Supply
Tourism
Private sector preferences for space/offices
(urban versus suburban)
Government weight in economy
Export orientation (E) or services-orientation (S)
Private investments favoring
Energy Costs
Travel Costs
Growth Stagnation
+
+
+
+
+
+
=
U
S
=
S
=
+
=
+
S
+
+
+
Workshop 2 output: Matrix of states
Political/
Administrative
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Strong central government
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Economy
Technology
Growth
Growth
Growth
Growth
Stagnation
Stagnation
Stagnation
Stagnation
Growth
Growth
Growth
Social/
Demographic
Dynamic
Dynamic
Fading
Fading
Dynamic
Dynamic
Fading
Fading
Dynamic
Dynamic
Fading
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Less-Centralized
Growth
Stagnation
Stagnation
Stagnation
Stagnation
Fading
Dynamic
Dynamic
Fading
Fading
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Neutral
Advance
Selected by (number of
groups):
3
0
1 "Status Quo"
0
1
0 Social crisis
2
1 Stagnant Suburbia
4 Growth
1
0
0
1 Efficient Urbania
0
2 Will technology save us?
0
Methodology for scenario development
Selected scenarios
Scenario 1
Crise Social
Scenario 2
Nova Dinâmica
Stagnation
Growth
Scenario 3
Desenvolvimento
através da tecnologia
Stagnation
Social/
Dynamic
Demographic
Political/
Strong central
Administrative government
Dynamic
Fading
Technology
Advance
Economic
Neutral
Less-centralized Less-centralized
Advance
Scenario 1: “Crise Social”
Growing Portuguese population with economic stagnation and
neutral technological change under a strong central government
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•
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•
•
Weak local governments
Creation of a supra-municipal structure
Funds and needs are not effectively matched
Economic downturn
EU and private investments are channelled towards the capital city
but create few employment and opportunities
• Tourism decreases
• Large portion of new immigrants unemployed
• Worldwide boom in telecommunication technologies continues
but adopted by a small share of the Portuguese population
Scenario 2: “Nova Dinâmica”
Strong economic growth, dynamic social structure, and
technological advance under empowered local governments
• Power of the central government declines
• Decrease in capital-centric government investments and more
balanced distribution of investments
• More successful resource allocation at local level
• Agencies more fragmented and decisions poorly integrated
• Large infrastructure and cultural projects
• Immigration rates increase, especially of young professionals
• Increase in tourism, new airport
• Cleaner vehicles, telecommuting
• Building technologies achieve cheaper and easier ways to
rehabilitate old buildings
Scenario 3: “Desenvolvimento através da tecnologia”
Economic stagnation and population aging are associated with
technological advance
• Portugal’s political structure is fragmented; the power of the
central government declines
• Government’s policy on immigration is inward-looking
• Government fails to implement a coherent economic strategy
• Few employment and opportunities
• Portugal’s population is ageing and declining
• Government and private sector adopt new technology
wholeheartedly
• Technological innovations with the highest market penetration are
aimed at improving the quality of life of the elderly
• Cleaner vehicles, telecommunication technologies
Ultimate purpose of scenario visioning exercise
Changing mental
models
Changing
numerical
models
Understanding potential impacts of changes