Transcript 2007 Travel & Tourism Economy by Region North America

TOURISM IS
THE
BIGGEST INDUSTRY
IN THE WORLD!
BIGGER THAN AUTOMOBILES, DEFENCE, AGRO
AND MANUFACTURING
Presentation Overview
*
WTTC
*
Global Travel & Tourism
*
A Changing World
*
Summary
WTTC Purpose
‘To raise awareness of the importance of
Travel & Tourism and to work with
governments to realise the full potential of
the industry in creating sustainable wealth
and jobs’
In Economic Terms...
Visitor
arrivals
vs.
Economic
impact
Raising Awareness
IND ÚSTR IA D E VIA GEM & TUR ISM
Hospitalidade, recreação, cate
diversão, transporte, e outros
serviços relacionados
WTTC
introduction
of Travel &
Tourism
Economy
Concept
ECONOMIA DE V IAGEM &
TUR ISMO
Impressão, publicação, energia,
serviços f inanceiros,
forneciment o de equipamento,
alimentos, segurança,
administração, construção
civil, construção naval,
forneciment o de bebidas,
ferro/aço, fabricação de
aeronaves, madeira,
mineração, produtos químicos,
têxteis, combustíveis, plást icos,
serviços de saneamento, f lores,
decorações , produt os
metálicos, com putadores,
arquit etos, desenvolvimento de
resort s, at acadist as, serviços de
lavanderia, informática.
Global Travel & Tourism:
Where We Stand
World Economy* GDP
* Travel & Tourism GDP associated
with T&T Demand (Direct and
Indirect)
* US$ 5.4 Trillion in 2007 (up 9.4% in
current terms)
* 10.4% of Total Gross Domestic
Product in 2007 (vs. 10.3% in 2006)
2007
Travel & Tourism Economy by Region
Caribbean
World Average
Other Western Europe
European Union Oceania
North Africa
2006 T&T Economy GDP
(Percent of Total)
Middle East
Northeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central and
Eastern Europe
North America
South Asia
Latin America
Southeast Asia
T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016
(Percent Annualized)
2007 saw continued
broad-based strength in
Total Demand
Personal T&T
Business Travel
the tourism economy,
though generally below
2006 growth rates. In
Government Expend.
Capital Investment
Visitor Exports
2008, growth is expected
to remain healthy despite
economic conditions.
T&T Industry GDP
Employment
T&T Econ. GDP
Employment
0
2
2007
4
2008
6
Results in 2007 better than forecast
Revision of 2008 Forecast
Real T&T GDP
Economy
Africa
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Middle East
North America
Latin America
World
Source: WTTC/Oxford Economics
Last Year’s 2008
Forecast
2008 likely forecast
Revision
(annual % growth)
(Direction)
5.0
Up
5.6
Constant
3.1
Down
5.0
Up
3.3
Down
4.3
Up
4.2
Down
International air travel rose at a record
9.3% y-y in November
Encouraging tourism growth - particularly
in developing countries
Most developed economies have also seen a
sustained rise in inbound flows
Total Pipeline: Global Regions
Under Const.
Start Next
12 Mos.
Early
Planning
Total
Projects
Total Rooms
223,977
315,995
178,415
5,438
718,387
Americas-Other
69,666
44,228
30,212
864
144,106
Europe
74,063
38,248
33,325
854
145,636
Middle East
63,822
46,192
35,493
501
145,507
Africa
15,164
8,009
5,076
142
28,249
272,754
80,736
72,534
1,833
426,024
United States
Asia Pacific
Source: Lodging Econometrics
A Relative Picture
Of total rooms constructed, 45% will be
built in the United States
Asia Pacific
26%
United States
45%
Africa
2%
M iddle East
9%
Europe
9%
Americas-Other
9%
2007 - 2017
A Changing World:
Macro Drivers
* Credit crunch continues to be a worry on
*
*
*
*
*
outlook
High oil prices may become a major
constraint on global growth
Fear of US Recession dragging down
the world
Increasing Deficit
Housing market in trouble
Weaker dollar
UK Brent oil
US $/Barrel
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Haver
Source
: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2005
2006
2007
Stock Markets Feel the Pressure...
Global stock markets
% year
30
25
20
S&P 500
FTSE
Nikkei
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan 1 2007 Mar 26 2007 Jun 18 2007 Sep 10 2007 Dec 3 2007
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
World: GDP growth
% year
Forecast
12
10
China
8
6
US
4
Eurozone
2
0
-2
Japan
-4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Oxford Economics
* Rapidly expanding economic growth in Emerging
Markets, create a new and dynamic source of
visitors
China
India
Russia
Middle East
* Responsive monetary policy – Quick and decisive
response by central banks to economic situations
* Strong corporate profitability outside of the
financial sector
2008 will see further slowdown but not as sharp
as period between 2001 and 2003
World: Short-term interest rates
%
8
UK
7
6
5
4
3
Europe
2
US
1
0
1995
1997
1999
Source: Haver Analytics
2001
2003
2005
2007
Summary
Summary
* WTTC forecasts that the United States is and will
remain the largest Travel & Tourism industry in the
world
* A changing world, requires a new mind frame. A
global slowdown is anticipated, sparked by a US
recession. However this will be partially offset by
today's changing world
* The lodging Industry is still showing great strength
and is growing at an impressive pace, despite the
anticipated economic slowdown.
It appears that this saying no longer
holds:
“When America sneezes, Europe
catches a cold and the rest of the
world dies of pneumonia”
“Today, the United States sneezes and
the rest of the world goes shopping”
BUT
YOUR FUTURE
IS ASSURED
JUST STEP UP TO CLAIM YOUR PART
OF IT!