Transcript Jon Monroe Consulting

Yangtze River Infrastructure
Development
www.yangtzeriverports.com
Jon Monroe Consulting
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Yangtze River Overview
An Emerging Economic Corridor
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We believe a river system is more
than the sum of it’s ports.
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YR as Regional Sections
YR Sections
Upper Reaches
Gateway to Western China
Middle Reaches
Distribution to all China
14.7% of river
Lower Reaches
Shuttle to Yangshan
78.0% of river
Delta and Coastal
Gateway to Int’l Markets
32.0% of China
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7.3% of river
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Yangtze River
Lower Reaches
Nanjing to Shanghai: 402 km
Middle Reaches
Upper Reaches
Yichang to Nanjing: 1550 Kilometers
Yibin to Yichang 850 Kilometers
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YR as a Single Entity
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Five Year Planning Mechanisms
Port Infrastructure
Road/Rail/Bridge Infrastructure
Hinterland Development
Provincial and City Plans
Urbanization Planning
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Yangtze River Basin
• Seven Provinces: 424.6 mil
• Two Municipalities: 48.0 mil
Sichuan
Pop: 84.3 Mil
GDP:1.05 trillion RMB
City: Chengdu
Port: Luzhou, Yibin
Chongqing
Pop: 30.9 mil
GDP: 411 billion RMB
City: Municipality
Port: Chongqing
Anhui
Pop: 60.7 mil
GDP: 735 billion RMB
City: Hefei
Port: Tongling, Ma’anshan
Hubei
Pop: 58.25 mil
GDP: 915 billion RMB
City: Wuhan
Port: Wuhan, Yichang
Jiangsu
Pop: 71.1 mil
GDP: 2.56 trillion RMB
City: Nanjing
Port: Nanjing, Lianyungang
Shanghai
Pop: 17 mil
GDP: 1.2 trillion RMB
City: Municipality
Port: Shanghai
Hunan
Pop: 63.42 mil
GDP: 914.5 billion RMB
City: Changsha
Port:Yueyang
Jiangxi
Pop: 43.4 mil
GDP:547 billion RMB
City: Nanchang
Port:Jiujiang
Zhejiang
Pop: 43.43 mil
GDP:1.86 trillion RMB
City: Hangzhou
Port: Ningbo
Strategic Yangtze River Cities
Region
Primary
Secondary
Upper
Chongqing, Chengdu
Luzhou, Yibin
Middle
Wuhan
Yichang, Jiujiang, Wuhu
Lower
Suzhou, Nanjing
Nantong
Yangtze River Delta
Shanghai, Ningbo
Lianyungang, Suzhou,
Hangzhou, Nanjing
Note: Though the lower reaches runs through the Yangtze River Delta, each
is covered separately. The dynamic of the coastal ports is distinct from the
activity of the river ports in the lower reaches
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Key YR Economic Regions
Economic Region
Location
Coverage
Shanghai Metro Circle
Yangtze
River Delta
Shanghai,
Covers all YRD
Jiangsu, Zhejiang
SuXiChang Metro Circle
Lower
Reaches
Jiangsu
Suzhou-Wuxi
Nanjing Metro Circle
Lower
Reaches
Jiangsu, Anhui
Extends YRD to
Anhui
Wuhan Metro Circle
Middle
Reaches
Hubei and
beyond
Primary Economic
Corridor MR
Chengdu – Chongqing
Upper
Reaches
ChongqingSichuan
Primary Economic
Corridor UR
Xuzhou Metro Circle
N. Jiangsu
Jiangsu, Anhui,
Developing
Henan, Shandong Economic
Corridor
Hangzhou Metro Circle
Zhejiang
Zhejiang
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Yangtze River
Lower Reaches
Nanjing to Shanghai: 402 km
Middle Reaches
Upper Reaches
Yichang to Nanjing: 1550 Kilometers
Yibin to Yichang 850 Kilometers
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Top 10 Yangtze River Ports
Rk
Port
2008
2009
%
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2010
Suzhou Ports
2,448,809
2,723,913
11.2
3,644,000
33.8%
Taicang
1,450,495
1,513,161
4.3
2,211,500
46.1%
Zhangjiagang
814,220
870,312
6.9
1,088,810
25.1%
Changshu
305,300
340,440
11.5
343,690
1.5%
1,280,265
1,200,326
-6.2
1,415,610
17.9%
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Nanjing
3
Jiangyin
502,200
699,733
39.3
1,001,000
43.0%
4
Wuhan
473,797
563,700
19.0
648,800
15.1%
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Chongqing
482,893
465,400
-3.6
500,070
7.4%
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Nantong
443,300
350,600
-20.9
462,000
31.8%
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Zhenjiang
292,400
280,700
-4.0
257,740
-11.9%
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Yangzhou
267,968
220,943
-17.6
287,350
30.0%
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Wuhu
164,106
99,525
-39.4
142,630
43.3%
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Jiujiang
80,927
100,666
24.4
120,570
19.8%
Others
423,899
493,553
16.4
697,332
41.3%
6,981,610
7,199,059
3.1
9,177,102
27.4%
Total
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Yangtze River 12th 5 Year Plan Summary
Gov’t will spend rmb 36bil/US$ 5.6bil on Yangtze
River under 12th 5 Year Plan (vs rmb 13.2 bill in 11th
plan)
 Devlopment of YR Port Clusters
 Shift to Regional Cooperation
 More investment in Hydroelectric power on river
 Continue Dredging and standardization of container
vessels
 Expand Hinterlands, especially rail
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YR Container Port Projections
2008 TEU
2009 TEU
%
2020 TEU
CAGR
Upper Reaches
549,130
526,081
-4.2%
5,430,000 23.64%
Middle Reaches
973,924
1,059,988
8.84%
9,300,000 21.83%
Lower Reaches
5,458,556
5,612,920
2.83%
40,360,000 19.64%
6,981,610
7,198,989
3.10%
55,090,000 20.48%
Coastal Ports
42,470,000
39,240,000
-7.6%
88,900,000
Total
49,451,610
46,438,989
-6.1%
YR Sub Total
7.72%
143,990,000 10.84%
By 2020, YR & Delta design capacity will be greater than all of China throughput in 2009
2020 projections based upon current port plans for new construction & expansion
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Upper Reaches
“Go West”
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Upper Reaches Fact Sheet
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Includes the area from Yibin to Yichang
Chongqing can be reached by vessels of 1500 DWT
Expect the draft to increase to allow 2500 DWT
vessels to reach Chongqing
Most cities on a hill due to rising waters of River
Major market in the Chongqing-Chengdu corridor
reaching more than 100 million people
Transit to Shanghai by barge is 7-9 days
Increased investment in 12th 5 Year Plan
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Yangtze River: Upper Reaches
Luzhou to Yichang
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Upper Reaches Cities
Chengdu
260km
299km
263km
Yibin
Chongqing
650km
3 Gorges Dam
177km
123km
Yichang
Luzhou
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Upper Reaches: Key River Ports
Port
2008 Ton
2009 Ton
7.72 mil
8.52 mil
10.4%
Luzhou
11.21 mil
11.64 mil
Chongqing
14.71 mil
Yibin
%
2008 TEU 2009 TEU
%
N/A
N/A
N/A
3.8%
66,237
60,681 -8.4%
13.0 mil -11.6%
434,797
416,400 -4.2%
Fuling
2.41 mil
5.5 mil
128%
30,086
28,000
Wanzhou
8.22 mil
8.78 mil
6.9%
18,010
21,000 16.6%
44.27 mil
44.33 mil
7.2%
549,130
526,081 -4.2%
Total
-7%
Source: Respective Port Authorities
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Upper Reaches: Infrastructure
Challenges
Source: Jon Monroe Consulting
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Source: Jon Monroe Consulting
6 to 8 moves per hour vs 32+
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Source: Jon Monroe Consulting
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SIPG Chongqing Chayuan Terminal
Source: Jon Monroe Consulting
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Upper Reaches Projections
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Companies are relocating westward to the upper reaches of the
Yangtze River; Examples: Foxconn, Hewlett Packard, Apple Computer,
Amazon, APL and Maersk
Upper reaches container traffic is expected to grow ten times 2009
throughput by 2020
Three port groups driving this growth; Sichuan Port Group,
Chongqing Port Group and Shanghai International Port Group
Financial crisis will expedite this movement as companies focus on
cost
Most upper reaches container movement is direct to Shanghai via
either Waogaoqiao or Yangshan Ports
Upper reaches infrastructure is being rapidly constructed to support
port; rail intermodal movement might not be for some time
Chongqing Government will subsidize logistics companies who move
into one of the development zones
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Middle Reaches
“Booming Central China”
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Middle Reaches Fact Sheet
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Middle Reaches cover 1,550 km from Yichang to Nanjing
Key cities include Wuhan,Yichang, Jiujiang and Wuhu
Wuhan and Jiujiang have access to the Beijing-Guangzhou
Railway
Access to Yangtze River and Railway makes these cities ideal for
domestic distribution in China
Yichang will become hub and gateway to/from Sichuan as well as
center of power industry
Transit to Shanghai by barge is 3 to 5 days
Middle Reaches Ports grew faster than Upper or Lower Reaches
in 2009
Eleven River Ports are located in Middle Reaches
By 2015, the Middle Reaches capacity are expected to grow five
time
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Middle Reaches
Yichang to Nanjing: 1,550 km
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Middle Reaches Key Cities
Hefei
Wuhu
3 Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Jiujiang
44km
Yichang
133km
Yangtze River
Nanchang
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Middle Reaches: Key River Ports
Port
2008 Ton
2009 Ton
%
2008 TEU 2009 TEU
%
Yichang
33.32 mil
35.38 mil
6.2%
42,496
44,455
4.6%
Wuhan
55.92 mil
54.09 mil
-3.3%
473,637
563,700
19%
Jujiang
61.82 mil
82.84 mil
34%
80,927
100,666
24.3%
Wuhu
55.14 mil
57.09 mil
3.6%
164,106
99,525
-39.4%
Sub Total
206.19 mil 229.39 mil
11.2%
761,166
808,346
6.2%
Others
211.12 mil 218.57 mil
3.5%
212,000
251,642
18.6%
Total
417.32 mil 447.96 mil
7.3%
973,924 1,059,988
8.8%
Source: Respective Port Authorities
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Wuhan Port
Yangsi Terminal
Yangluo Terminal
Source: Jon Monroe Consulting
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Middle Reaches Projections
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Middle Reaches represents the longest stretch of the river,
winding through four provinces; Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi & Anhui
This includes eleven port cities; Hubei (4), Hunan (1), Jiangxi
(1) and Anhui (5)
Middle Reaches is expected to grow five times 2009 by 2015, a
CAGR of 32.75%
Four port cities are instrumental to Middle Reaches growth;
Yichang, Wuhan, Jiujiang and Wuhu
Two cities are the best positioned strategically to develop the
Middle Reaches and Central China; Yichang and Wuhan
Wuhan will dominate Middle Reaches and the rapidly
developing supporting rail and road infrastructure will support
make Wuhan a major distribution hub for Central China
Expect growth in the middle reaches during the 12th Five Year
Plan (2011 – 2015)
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Lower Reaches
“Shuttle for Eastern Manufacturing”
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Lower Reaches Fact Sheet
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Lower reaches cover 402 km from Nanjing to Shanghai
The lower reaches has the highest density of river ports with
ten ports located on the YR
The lower reaches ports represents 78% of the container
throughput of the Yangtze River
In 2008, Taicang Terminal passed Nanjing to become the
largest container port on the Yangtze River and lower reaches
The majority of container throughput in most lower reaches
ports moves direct to Shanghai terminals supporting Shanghai
as a shipping center
Nanjing, Nantong and Taicang have international direct calls to
Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea and SE Asia
Lower reaches container capacity is expected to triple 2009
throughput by 2015
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Lower Reaches
Nanjing to Shanghai: 402 km
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Lower Reaches Key Cities
Nantong
Nanjing
192km
Zhangjiagang
90km
To Shanghai
Taicang
Yangtze River
Suzhou
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Lower Reaches: Key River Ports
Port
2008 Ton
2009 Ton
%
2009 TEU
%
203.48
246.24 mil
21.0 2,570,015
2,723,913
6.0
40.2 mil
51.64 mil
29.0 1,450,495
1,513,161
4.3
123.24 mil
150 mil
21.7
814,220
870,312
6.9
40.04 mil
44.6 mil
11.0
305,300
340,440
11.5
Nanjing
111.25 mil 121.46 mil
9.2
1,280,265
1,200,326
-6.4
Nantong
132.14 mil 135.41 mil
3.2
443,300
350,600
-20.9
Sub Total
446.49 mil 503.16 mil
12.6
4,293,580
4,274,839
-0.5
Other
285.6 mil 334.36 mil
17.0
1,164,976
1,338,081
14.8
Total
732.09 mil 837.53 mil
14.4 5,458,556
5,612,920
2.8
Suzhou Ports
Taicang
Zhangjiagang
Changshu
2008 TEU
Source: Respective Port Authorities
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Taicang Terminal
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Lower Reaches Projections - 1
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The lower reaches of the Yangtze River runs through a single
province, Jiangsu, encompassing ten river ports
The top four ports along the Yangtze River, by TEU throughput, are
Taicang, Nanjing, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin, all located in the lower
reaches
The lower reaches container activity accounted for 78% of total
Yangtze River container activity
Suzhou Port as a combined port group, is the largest container and
general cargo port along the Yangtze River
In 2008, Taicang surpassed Nanjing to become the largest container
port along the Yangtze River
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Lower Reaches Projections - 2
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In 2009, Zhangjiagang surpassed Nantong to become the
largest general cargo port along the Yangtze River
Most of the manufacturing activity in the lower reaches has
been contained in South Jiangsu
As manufacturing activity moves north in Jiangsu Province,
Nantong becomes a more viable port, putting it in a more
strategic position relative to the other Yangtze River ports
The close proximity of the ten lower reaches ports will create a
competitive environment due to the overlapping hinterlands
Logistics facilities are moving from Shanghai to lower reaches
cities like Nanjing, Suzhou and Kunshan
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Yangtze River Delta
“An economic engine…..
&
Gateway to the World”
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Yangtze River Delta Fact Sheet
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The YRD accounts for 21.4% of China’s GDP with only 11.1% of
the population and 2.2% of land area
The YRD embraces Shanghai Municipality and 15 cities of
Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces
YRD cities are promoting regional integration for growth and
economic activity
Most of the manufacturing sector along the Yangtze River has
settled in this area
Five Metro Circles have been developed to drive YRD cities
integration: Shanghai, SuXiChang, Nanjing, Xuzhou and
Hangzhou
Rail, road and bridge infrastructure has been completed to
support this integration including four major bridges; Donghai,
SuTong, Hangzhou Bay and Zhoushan Cross Sea Bridge
Two largest Yangtze River ports, Taicang and Zhangjiagang;
and two largest coastal ports in China, Shanghai and Ningbo
are all located in YRD
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Yangtze River Delta Economic Indicators
Indicator
2008
YRD GDP (billion RMB)
2009
2010
6,520.91
7,179.39
8,460.00
30,067.00
33,535.30
39,500.00
21.7%
21.4%
21.4%
YRD FDI (billion USD)
45.27
45.76
50.62
China FDI (billion USD)
92.40
90.03
105.70
48.9%
50.8%
47.9%
China GDP (billion RMB)
YRD %
YRD %
Note: GDP stated in RMB and FDI stated in USD
Source: China National Statistics Bureau
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Jon
Monroe
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Monroe
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Yangtze River Delta: Key Coastal Ports
Port
2008 Ton
2009 Ton
%
Shanghai
582.0 mil
592.0 mil
1.7%
28.01 mil
25.0 mil -10.7%
Ningbo
520.47 mil
577.57 mil
11.0%
10.93 mil
10.5 mil - 3.9%
1,102.47 mil 1,169.57 mil
6.0%
38.94 mil
35.5 mil -11.2%
261.08 mil
15.2%
3.53 mil
4.4 mil
25.7%
1329.02 mil 1,430.65 mil
7.6%
42.47 mil
39.2 mil
-7.6%
Sub Total
Others
Total
226.55 mil
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2008 TEU
2009
TEU
%
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To Shandong Province
Lianyungang
Xuzhou
Yancheng
Huai’an
Suqian
Yellow Sea
Yangzhou
Taizhou
Nanjing
Nantong
Changzhou
Zhenjiang
Wuxi
To Anhui
Province
Suzhou
Shanghai
Taihu Lake
Huzhou
Jiaxing
East China Sea
Hangzhou Bay Bridge
Hangzhou
To Jiangxi
Province
Quzhou
Jinhua
Zhoushan
Shaoxing
Ningbo
Taizhou
Lishui
Wenzhou
Yangtze River
16 YRD Cities
+
+
+
JingHang Canal
25 YRD Cities
YRD Coastal
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Yangtze River Corridor
Emerging City Cluster
Chongqing-Sichuan
115 million people
 GDP 1.2 Tril yuan
Emerging City Cluster
 Middle Reaches Yangtze River
 58 million people
 GDP 1 Tril yuan
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Major City Cluster
Yangtze River Delta
 130+ million people
 GDP 3.9 Tril yuan
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Where Are We?
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Mfg costs going up in YRD
 Focusing on cooperative development among YRD
Cities
 Approximately 70% of the traffic along Yangtze River
moves within YRD
 Expect more cooperation between YRD cities and
cities in the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze
River
 More companies will locate in YRD as a base to
access central and Western China
 Expect larger vessels to call Nanjing and move
direct to foreign ports
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Summary
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Yangtze River Summary
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Yangtze River may well become the world’s largest economic corridor
by 2020
China’s central planning will encourage western movement and
cooperation as well as competition among city’s and ports
The river can be regionalized into four sections: upper, middle, lower
and delta & coastal
Rapid urbanization and an improved infrastructure will drive this
process
Port development capacity may well exceed demand
By 2020, China will have the most sophisticated manufacturing and
transportation infrastructure in the world connecting ports and cities
via rapid rail, road and air networks.
This will be supported by a shift from dependence on exports to a
more balanced trade flow and a strong domestic economy
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Thank You
www.yangtzeriverports.com
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